5 Comments

Turkey will not seek to expand their presence in Syria beyond the Kurdish enclaves as they don't wish to engage in a military confrontation with the IDF. They will be satisfied to sit & watch as the different Syrian militias battle it out over the next few years.

The Mullahs in Persia need to concentrate on shoring up the Shiite dominated regime in Iraq because if the Sunnis regain power there, it's only a matter of time before the Sunni world (with American & Israeli assistance) seeks the toppling of the Iranian theocracy.

Jordan will continue their usual game of staving off any threat to Hashemite rule by making deals galore & relying on the US & Israel to defend them militarily if severely threatened. The IDF will ultimately engage not because the US demands it, but because they'll calculate it is in their strategic interest to do so.

Expand full comment

I don't agree on your points:

The IDF will not confront Turkish forces unless confronted. I don't think there is a fear in Turkey that Israel will attack it in Syria. They don't have to approach the Golan to make further inroads into Syria. Once Russia is gone, all bets are off.

Iran is already using their friend and Bashar's brother Maher Assad to use his Alawite base on the coast to foment civil war. Iran is not done with Syria.

About Jordan - while they might send in the air force, i don't see ground troops going in, except to secure border areas - but not to prop up the Hashemites.

Expand full comment

The IDF is now in its strongest position vis a vis its adversaries since June 1982 when it it initially rolled through Lebanon & shredded Syrian forces in the Bekaa Valley.. Erdogan's military is is large, but no match for the IDF, particularly in the air (despite their US provided planes). Turkish military formations would be annihilated if they crossed certain Israeli red lines & Bibi is just itching to bloody Erdogan's nose,

Iran may not be over Syria, but they have much larger problems to deal with. First and foremost, their allies in Iraq may be vulnerable to a Sunni military onslaught if launched in cooperation with newly victorious units in Syria. A Sunni dominated Iraq would lead to the old Arab/Persian tensions that existed prior to the fall of Saddam.

As far as Jordan is concerned, Israel will have no choice but to get involved on the ground if the Hashemite dynasty is facing defeat. The last thing Israel needs is an active front on its eastern flank. Placing IDF boots on Jordanian territory is certainly preferable to decades of potential conflict emanating from Amman.

Expand full comment

If you know Bibi's history, he will not attack Turkey if not attacked first, even if they make it to Damascus. He is way too cautious for that.

As for Iran, they are already involved with Maher Assad in Allawite areas and have not given up on that country - or on Lebanon.

As for Jordan - i don't agree that Israel will send in ground troops to prop up Abdullah if just for the reason that it won't work. If Abdullah reaches that point he will be on a jet to the UK.

Expand full comment

You're offering us a picture of Pre 10/7 Bibi.

Expand full comment