WWIII Update

The Fall of Assad and Future of the Axis and the West

We have written many times claiming that we are in the midst of WWIII and not in a prelude to it. The Axis of China, Russia, Iran and North Korea against the Western countries, anchored here by Israel and Ukraine. The United States struggling to maintain power in the Indo-Pacific and bluff China out of invading Taiwan while the old western powers like the UK and even France crumble under the weight of years of self-hatred and appeasement of jihadi fanaticism, internally and externally.

Yaroslav Trofimov, the WSJ chief foreign-affairs correspondent asks in this past week’s excellent Saturday Essay – “Has World War III Already Begun?” - we would like to ask, is it ending?

The last six months has been full of unpredicted events and it is fair to ask if we were right in assuming that a world war had already begun, and if so, has the war taken a conclusive turn without the US directly confronting any of the Axis powers? In Ukraine, on the one hand they have taken some Russian territory but on the other the Russian offensive, moving slowly, seems to be succeeding. Both sides are bleeding heavily but the Russians have the advantage of having more blood to shed. A sad equation, but true nonetheless. The brain trust that fought Vietnam based on body counts was not much better - but in democracies you can in fact “throw the bums out” and Putin is one bum who does not appear to be going anywhere, anytime soon.

The two main events that have changed the course of the war, or separate wars, if you don’t accept that a World War can be fought without massive US combat, occurred in the middle east and in the United States. Like it or not but the election of Donald Trump to be President again forced the entire world to wake up. Although it is too early to see where exactly the Trump administration will go once in power, they have given distinct signs that the Obama-Biden-Blinken course of non-escalation, appeasement and the end of ‘victory’ is over (urgent message to Israel’s security elite, past and present). They are speaking tough on Iran and Hamas and are telling Putin and Zelensky that both will have to compromise. Taiwanese leaders are meeting with Trump officials and even the leader of the “great state of Canada”, Justin “ibn Fidel” Trudeau, has paid homage.

But we will concentrate for now on the Middle East.

The middle east is where we have seen the degrading of both Russian and Iranian forces. The killing of Sinwar and the occupation of Rafah has denied Hamas their senior leadership and access to the outside world, leaving them only with the alleged humanitarian aid to keep them well supplied. In Lebanon, we all know what happened as Israel killed Nasrallah along with the rest of the senior leadership of Hezbollah and disabled thousands in the famous beeper attacks causing Hezbollah fighters to flee from south Lebanon. This was followed by a limited ground invasion that destroyed most Hezbollah supplies, tunnels and capabilities within a few miles of the border as well as extensive air attacks that degraded the Hezbollah long and mid-range missiles and rockets. While the cease fire allows Hezbollah to regroup and re-arm, that has been hampered by the fall of Assad.

The axis of resistance, sponsored by Iranian money, ideology and instigation, if not blood, seems to be on its hind legs. The middle east of December 2024 is not the middle east of October 6, 2023 and therefore the geo-political situation has changed, too. Is this the beginning of the defeat of the Axis or will they regroup? Looking at Russia in the middle-east, they have not yet abandoned their major air and naval bases and are trying to convince the rebels that it is a good idea for them to stay. Turkey is not happy about that but as much as Turkey has been a major sponsor of the overthrow of Assad, the rebel groups are not entirely controllable by them. It seems to me that if Russia can stay in Syria with the acquiescence of a new Syrian regime, they will have to fortify these bases with enough ground troops to repel attacks by breakaway groups who want even Russian infidels out of Syria.

For that is the issue with the “new” Syria. No matter which group takes over, there will be other groups for whom the rulers are not fanatical enough, or even, too fanatical. There is no real end in sight for the Syrian civil war. Israel will not leave Mount Hermon or the former DMZ for the foreseeable future and in the north, Turkey will not be able to resist sending its army further in to wipe out Kurdish resistance. They have already taken down certain border fences and the rebels are gathering forces to attack the Kurdish town of Kobani on the Turkish-Syrian border. We should remember that Turkey is a NATO country and that the United States has been supporting the Kurds in their fight in Syria. Will there be a clash? Will this be Cyprus II? Turkey has already attacked an ally of a NATO country (Greece) and they have not paid a price due to their strategic importance in the Cold War. Erdogan, wannabe Ottoman Sultan, has stated that it is logical that Syria, including the cities of Idlib, Allepo and even Damascus will be considered “Turkish provinces” – there will be no US supported military resistance to a Turkish invasion although it should not surprise anyone if Trump pulls US forces out of Turkey.

Currently, the last two proxies available to Iran are those in Iraq and the Houthis. Israel is rumored to be ready to attack the Houthis, who continue to lob missiles at Israel. As for Iraq, the fall of Assad does not seem to have had a large effect on that country and Iran is still the main power there.

Where else can Iran turn to keep itself relevant as the leader of the front trying to destroy Israel and spread Shia Islam to the world? Jordan for one. We have written numerous times about the Iranian desire to take control of Mecca and the best gateway to that is through Jordan. A coup against the Kingdom by Hamas or other Islamists, powered by Iranian arms and money would bring them directly to the borders of Israel and Saudi Arabia. We read reports of Trump saying that Israel should be ready to oppose an Iranian takeover there – but how many Israelis will want to fight for King Abdullah? Would Trump send in US commandos to prop up the Hashemites? Not likely. The air force? Maybe.

But the middle east is not the only place Iran operates. They are active in Africa (along with their Russian allies) and, more important for the United States, in South America. Iran and China have both made major inroads into South America. The Chinese are building ports on the Pacific coast and the Islamic Republic is working hard to convert South Americans to Shiite Islam. They are heavily involved in the drug trade and in human trafficking – in South America and into the United States. True enough, their two major partners in this, Assad’s Syria and Hezbollah are either gone or weakened but finding partners for these types of crimes is not difficult.

But back to the middle east and the surprise question of the day. Are Turkey and Iran headed for a confrontation? This can take place in Syria proper or in the parts of Kurdistan that most threaten Turkey. The Iran-Turkey confrontation can start off as competition over anti-Israel policy or it can be an outright religious war between the most powerful Sunni country and the most powerful Shiite one. Some analysts include Russia in this possible confrontation. While up until a few weeks ago Russia was able to be the go between in frosty relations between Damascus and Istanbul now Turkey might be controlling relations between Damascus and Moscow. Although, as we stated, Islamists in Syria are not entirely controllable. Russia and Iran seem to have strengthened their ties after the joint Syria debacle and a joint effort to undermine any type of Syrian government is a near certainty.

Regarding Turkey, while some say this frees them from dependence on Russia in the middle-east and will bring them closer to the West, in truth, Turkey now has an opportunity to be the Islamic power Erdogan has always meant Turkey to be. With control of large parts of Syria, it can fill its dream of destroying Kurdish nationalism once and for all and in portraying itself as the savior of Islam’s pride after the Israelis embarrassed the Shiites. While many fear that Trump will be the reason for the breakup of NATO, in the end, it could be Turkey. Under NATO rules it is difficult to expel a country from NATO. If Turkey decided to unilaterally withdraw it could -but if not, it could be that the only way to get rid of a revanchist Turkey would be to disband NATO.

Would Russia abandon Iran for Turkey? The overthrow of the Islamic regime or at least the destruction of their nuclear capabilities would show Russia that the Islamic Republic has no real military capabilities. Could Turkey then turn against the west and join the Axis?

In the meanwhile, Isreal is not only destroying Syrian military hardware it is occupying parts of southern Syria and has reportedly taken control of the Tabqa/Baath dam on the Yarmuk River. For those old enough to remember, this dam contributed to tensions between Israel and Syria that led to the Six Day War, as Syria diverted water from the Jordan River.

While this has been going on, leaders of the Druze community in the south of Syria have requested to be annexed to Israel and to live under Israeli rule. They were loyal to Assad, as were the Druze on the Israeli Golan Heights but they fear the radical Sunni Islamists now. It is not clear where this will lead but the UN and Arab insistence on the territorial integrity of the colonial borders of Syria will make any such move difficult.

The middle east is changing as everyone sees, but to predict where it will go is a fools game. The entire region is in flux as major powers fall and new ones have not yet arisen. Two non-Arab powers now seem to have the upper hand – Israel and Turkey- and both are part of the West – one by treaty and the other by culture. Both are “outsiders” in the Arab world. A third major power is Egypt which has been investing everything it has in its military – both in its purchase of hardware and the enrichment of its officer corps.

However, one lesson that we have learned is that the armies of dictatorships are not as strong as their leaders and the equipment they purchase make them seem. While free countries love to kick the can down the road, when their backs are against the wall, they fight with all they have. Enslaved countries, when their backs are against the wall, strip off their uniforms and run for safely.

To answer our first question, WWIII is not ending and the Axis, while weakened is not surrendering. Forces are shifting and alliances can change. Russia and China will not be satisfied with the status quo, the Islamic Republic of Iran will not surrender its quest to destroy the West and assume a Shiite globe. Turkey will soon become a wild card, if they are not one already. During WWII the allies tried to get Italy to change sides and the Nazis tried to get Franco’s Spain to fight on its side. Alliances are flexible, especially when dictatorships see opportunities or threats to their regime.

Israel ought not to celebrate its victories too soon and ought to be preparing for a larger war with more difficult enemies than Iran’s proxies. The United States needs to build up its true allies in the middle east and eastern Mediterranean. The US also needs to beware of Turkey and Egypt and what it sells them and what intelligence it shares with them.

We stick to our claim that October 7, 2023 were the opening shots in WWIII and the Obama-Biden-Blinken fear of escalation has led exactly to that. A clear Trumpian message to Hamas instead of a Bidenesque “don’t” to both Israel and Hezbollah might have kept the middle eastern front short and localized.

But here we are. Things are changing and preparation and good policy decisions by Israel and the US can make those changes be in their favor.