"the goal of the war is the defeat of the Islamic Republic of Iran and its elimination as a regional threat "
I'm 100% on your team but there's a problem: the Dem party is against this (w/a few exceptions such as Fetterman who leads nothing and is increasingly isolated in his own party) and even most Republicans would shrink from this while being covertly sympathetic.
I sometimes wonder. Surely the US wants to reduce its footprint around the world while leaving that particular region in friendly hands. And yet, when that starts to happen, they don't seem all that happy.
The US is a huge operation. It's in a very confused state, for reasons that have nothing to do with Israel. Some want to reduce our footprint around the world, some do not. It complicated.
For example: I was & am critical of our Ukraine policy (too complicated to go into now, browse my 'Stack) but since October 7 things have changed. This is only one example of many that I could give.
There could be any number of reasons why Iran opted to strike Israel now. I tend to believe it's as simple as the Ayatollah believing that Israel's strike on their "diplomatic" compound in Damascus crossed a red line wherein it was the first IAF assault on their "territory" so to speak.
I suggest that numerous IAF assaults on Iranian territory itself are in the offing in the hope that it will spur the Ayatollah to convince Hezbollah to withdraw beyond the Litani River. The alternative, a direct conflict with Hezbollah, could result in significant destruction to the Israel home front and questionable battlefield achievements.
Maybe you are right - but if so then Israel is deterred from hitting Iran because Israel is deterred from hitting Hezbollah while neither Iran nor Hezbollah are deterred from hitting Israel. The end game there, does not sound good.
Iran has been deterred from striking directly, until this past weekend. I believe they will be further deterred if the IAF begins to hit them.
Hezbollah is another story. There is currently minimal deterrence on that front as they believe they are currently benefiting from a MAD scenario with Israel. To a certain degree they are correct, unless the Israeli govt. believes the public is willing to absorb significant home front damage in order to achieve "victory" over Hezbollah. I don't believe that's currently the case.
Yet, something must be done about Hezbollah in order to see the 80,000 residents who fled begin returning home. Military pressure on Iran may be the only way to achieve a Hezbollah withdrawal short of direct full scale war on the northern front.
Fascinating question. Theoretically the three countries that come to mind would be Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Turkey.
Regarding Egypt and Saudi Arabia - I think that would depend on how the West is fairing vs, China. Neither would want to be on the losing side. As for Turkey - on the one hand I don't see them trusting Russia - on the other hand Erdogan is a megalomaniac who wants to re-start the Caliphate.
"the goal of the war is the defeat of the Islamic Republic of Iran and its elimination as a regional threat "
I'm 100% on your team but there's a problem: the Dem party is against this (w/a few exceptions such as Fetterman who leads nothing and is increasingly isolated in his own party) and even most Republicans would shrink from this while being covertly sympathetic.
Then Israel needs to find allies who will help it.
The US does not have to commit troops per se, I don't think. Arms (some paid for by Gulf states?) , radar, intelligence should do it.
You might find a very powerful country trying to suffocate that alliance.
That would be: the United States.
I sometimes wonder. Surely the US wants to reduce its footprint around the world while leaving that particular region in friendly hands. And yet, when that starts to happen, they don't seem all that happy.
The US is a huge operation. It's in a very confused state, for reasons that have nothing to do with Israel. Some want to reduce our footprint around the world, some do not. It complicated.
For example: I was & am critical of our Ukraine policy (too complicated to go into now, browse my 'Stack) but since October 7 things have changed. This is only one example of many that I could give.
There could be any number of reasons why Iran opted to strike Israel now. I tend to believe it's as simple as the Ayatollah believing that Israel's strike on their "diplomatic" compound in Damascus crossed a red line wherein it was the first IAF assault on their "territory" so to speak.
I suggest that numerous IAF assaults on Iranian territory itself are in the offing in the hope that it will spur the Ayatollah to convince Hezbollah to withdraw beyond the Litani River. The alternative, a direct conflict with Hezbollah, could result in significant destruction to the Israel home front and questionable battlefield achievements.
Maybe you are right - but if so then Israel is deterred from hitting Iran because Israel is deterred from hitting Hezbollah while neither Iran nor Hezbollah are deterred from hitting Israel. The end game there, does not sound good.
Iran has been deterred from striking directly, until this past weekend. I believe they will be further deterred if the IAF begins to hit them.
Hezbollah is another story. There is currently minimal deterrence on that front as they believe they are currently benefiting from a MAD scenario with Israel. To a certain degree they are correct, unless the Israeli govt. believes the public is willing to absorb significant home front damage in order to achieve "victory" over Hezbollah. I don't believe that's currently the case.
Yet, something must be done about Hezbollah in order to see the 80,000 residents who fled begin returning home. Military pressure on Iran may be the only way to achieve a Hezbollah withdrawal short of direct full scale war on the northern front.
Question: Should Iran fall (devoutly to be hoped), is there anyone who could take her place, in terms of a China-Russia "axis"?
Fascinating question. Theoretically the three countries that come to mind would be Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Turkey.
Regarding Egypt and Saudi Arabia - I think that would depend on how the West is fairing vs, China. Neither would want to be on the losing side. As for Turkey - on the one hand I don't see them trusting Russia - on the other hand Erdogan is a megalomaniac who wants to re-start the Caliphate.
In a word, no.
That's why it's so important.