What Has Emboldened Iran?

It is time to think globally

Iran clearly changed its tune with the missile and drone attack on Israel earlier this week.

I was wrong in my assumption that Iran would not risk their military assets and would not risk the humiliation that failure would bring - that can be devastating in the middle east.  The Biden-Blinken administration as well as the Israeli government and military also thought the same thing.   The fact that my views coincided with the two government’s assessments is embarrassment in itself, but the question remains, what did embolden the Islamic Republic of Iran to change course?

The fact remains that its attack was a failure as it caused very little damage to Israel and put at question its own strategy for domination in the middle east which is based on its proxies, led by Hezbollah and the Houthis, its home made drone and missile force and eventually – its nuclear status.   That does not mean they won’t go back to the drawing board and figure out where and why things went wrong and to correct them – they will.  

As for why the attack failed, you can point to three things.

First, is that they telegraphed what they did and launched drones first, which gave Israel, the US, UK and others time to respond.   Jets were gassed up and the proper munitions were loaded.  They  had time to take up positions.  All anti missile defense and radar positions were fully manned. Had they sent missiles first it might have been a different game as they arrive in a matter of minutes.   It seems they wanted everything to get there at the same time, but that may have been a fatal (but correctable) mistake.

Second, the Israel Air Force (IAF) command and control center was able to direct everything from its F-35’s and F1-6’s to its three levels of anti-missile and rocket defenses.   Everyone was on alert and everyone could be directed to the right location.  I assume US radar and control centers were also coordinating with Israel’s.   From the start of the war in Gaza Israel’s joint arms fire tactics were put into effect at great success.   In Gaza, IDF officers in infantry and armored brigades were on the battlefield directing tank, artillery, helicopter and aircraft fire to great effect.   This is an extension of that – if a bit more sophisticated as it had to track hundreds of incoming weapons and destroy them.

Third, and this is pure speculation – maybe Iranian missile technology is not what it seems. As stated, most of its arms are home grown with little cooperation from the world’s scientific and engineering community.   It could be that corners were cut or the engineering was not up to par.

I don’t hold by the theory that this was all staged as no Moslem would agree to be humiliated like Iran was.    The Arabic press and social media are filled with jokes at Iran’s expense. If it was staged, then they would have had to destroy at least 2 or 3 jets on the ground or some Israeli radar installation in order for them to save face.   If it was staged, they would not have sent all types of weapons.   But as we said above, they did telegraph the attack by constantly talking about it and there was certainly intelligence that it was about to happen soon.  The fact that it happened the day after Eid al-Fitr (which ended on Friday) should not have surprised anyone.

That brings us back to the real questions, why did Iran feel so emboldened now and what are their plans for the future?  Everyone is focusing on Israel’s “will they, won’t they” as the West’s “leaders” beg Israel not to start a regional war that already exists (and has for six months), but it would be foolish to think that this was a one-off for Iran and that they don’t have other attacks planned.  This very well could be the opening salvo in a direct confrontation with Israel and they may not admit failure in public but are certainly examining that failure in private.  

Why Now?

There are two main (connected) theories as to “why now?” The attack in Damascus that allegedly sparked the Iranian response was not really any more or less violent and successful than many other attacks in Syria over the last six months or six years.   Senior IRG officers have been killed by Israeli strikes.  True enough, General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, the coordinator of terror attacks in the region, was the most senior of them but it was not an attack that was an outlier.

One theory says that Iran sensed that Israel, once again, was sinking into its internal squabbles with Netanyahu being blamed by the opposition for being the main obstacle to a hostage deal and demands that he resign and replaced by “anyone”.   This, according to the theory, was seen by Iran as being a significant threat to the government and its continued war in Gaza against Hamas. 

A second theory, related to the first, says that the isolation of Israel and the constant threats coming from the US and the West about arms embargoes and other sanctions being leveled against Israel combined with a weak President in the middle of an election, told Iran that Israel would be standing alone.   The destruction of some air force or other military installations (as opposed to civilian targets) in this theory, meant that the US itself would not attack Iran and that Israel would be restrained by threats coming from the UN or Washington itself.  

But what if it goes deeper?  What if this was coordinated not with the US and the west but this Russia and China?   What if this was an attack meant to create more unity amongst the Axis and to test out offensive capabilities for a future attack on Ukraine and Taiwan?   Or if not exactly coordinated, certainly approved with glee.  Western governments, led by the Biden-Blinken administration are doing their best to deny the existence of the Russia-Iran-China Axis but it is obvious to any observer who does not use wishful thinking as their main analytical tool, that this is an active, powerful and well coordinated Axis.   

According to  the WSJ editorial page, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi called Iran a “comprehensive strategic partner”.  Iran is China’s main ally in the middle east.   Despite years of developing economic ties to Israel, China never condemned the Hamas attack in October and has backed Iran and their proxies over the course of the war.  No one can deny the Iranian-Russian ties.  Not only does Iran supply drones to Russia but there is also the coordination that Iran and Russia have in Syria where the Russians provide safe havens for Iranian arms shipments to Hezbollah.  Russia is also enhancing its training of the Syrian armed forces – specifically its artillery corps as it also has set up positions opposite Israel’s Golan Heights. 

For all three Axis countries the main enemy is the United States.  The main goal is the end of the Pax Americana and with it US influence in the world.  Russia leads the fight in Europe, Iran in the middle east and China of course in the Indo-Pacific.  This is not an equal partnership as China is the lead actor.   When the US put in harsh sanctions against Russia the US government was convinced that China would not risk sanctions on its own financial institutions by trading with and helping Russia.  They were wrong.  China is Russia’s main patron.

China also buys sanctioned oil from Iran – without a peep coming from the US or Western Europe. This Axis is in control of most of the land mass from the Pacific to the Mediterranean.   Their goal is to move the center of the world to China.

What if the newfound Iranian boldness is tied to its newfound position as a main member of a global anti-American Axis?   It does not mean that this was coordinated with Russia and China in military command centers although it is safe to say that they got advanced notice so that China could protect its shipping in the Persian Gulf and Russia its armed forces in Syria, the Red Sea and the Mediterranean.

This is how alliances of dictatorships are formed.  Crises and bold action can bring allies together if their goals are aligned – even if their timing is not.  Japan and Nazi Germany were allies but only after Pearl Harbor did Germany declare war on the United States.   With dictatorships there is no need for pesky negotiations or signed documents that need to pass the legislature or the court of public opinion.

The Biden-Blinken team is in denial when it comes to the Axis as it is still trying to appease Iran, not “provoke” Russia by giving the Ukraine what it needs to defend itself (let alone win their war).  With China, it does not seem to have a plan at all.

What is Next?

From Iran’s perspective, Israel’s response is not relevant unless Israel considers their response as part of their holistic (pardon the expression) multi-front war and not as a one off tit-for-tat move.  Like we described the other day (Changing Israel’s War Objectives), Israel has to reassess its war aims and state unequivocally and out loud that the goal of the war is the defeat of the Islamic Republic of Iran and its elimination as a regional threat – much as the Islamic Republic says unequivocally  and out loud that its goal is the destruction of Israel and ridding the Persian Gulf of the United States.    

If Israel’s response is “just a response”, without any strategic implications then Iran will be able to measure its own responses and use Hezbollah, its other proxies, or its own state power when and where it decides.   Israel will just have to wait and then respond.  This will just go on and on and Israel and the West will be in no better position.

If Israel hesitates and the US and the West continue to appease Iran, Russia will be tempted to join Iran in a future confrontation with Israel.  Even if it does not attack directly it can declare Syrian airspace as Russian and challenge Israel over it.   How does Israel react to that?  How will the US react to that?    Will China use the excuse of regional conflict to increase its naval presence in the Persian Gulf and challenge the American presence there?  Will a worst case scenario happen and all three countries start missile attacks simultaneously against Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan?

The current US administration does not seem to see the bigger picture here. Russia, China and Iran are already close allies “comprehensive strategic partners”.   Meanwhile, Biden-Blinken are doing everything they can to make the world believe that they are not on the same page as their major allies in each region where there is a current or potential confrontation.  It was so with Ukraine for most of the war, it is true with Israel now and it has dragged its feet on arming Taiwan and helping the Philippines. 

We have said for a long time that China is looking at the middle east to see how the US reacts to overt attacks from Iran and its proxies and how it treats its main regional allies.   The non-veto at the UN, the constant attacks on Netanyahu personally and Israel in general over its tactics, the blaming of Israel and not Hamas for a lack of a hostage deal and for the humanitarian issues in Gaza and the “take a win” attitude to the Iranian attack are emboldening not only Iran but China and Russia, too. 

Are we right?    It is difficult to assess the relationship between nations – especially when they are all dictatorships and no real information is reported.

But the facts point in this direction.  

-          China is supporting Russia in its fight against Ukraine with arms and economic assistance.

-          Iran is supporting Russia in its fight against Ukraine with weapons. 

-          Iran and Russia cooperate closely in Syria. 

-          China provides Iran with hard cash by purchasing its sanctioned oil.

-          China backs up Iran diplomatically (and its proxies Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis) in its war against Israel.

-          All three countries are dependent upon missile and rocket attacks in their offensive strategy against their enemies and they have learned a lot from Iran’s attack.

After the 1973 Yom Kippur War, Egypt’s President Sadat, with a push from Kissinger, was convinced that the only way to get back the Sinai from Israel was via the United States.  He saw that Soviet arms would not do the trick.   He broke off military ties with the Soviet Union, signed arms deals with the United States and before the decade was out Egypt and Israel signed a peace treaty and Sadat and Egypt received the entirety of the Sinai Peninsula. 

This is where diplomacy works – when one side wants something that the other side can give.  With Iran though, it should be clear that this cannot work since what Iran wants – the destruction of Israel -  Israel cannot give.  There is no pulling Iran out of the alliance they have with China and Russia since it is so profitable for them and they have the same goals. There are only two solutions to the destabilization that Iran has given to the middle east – regime change or a radical reduction of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s military capabilities via a combination of economic pressure and military strikes.

The radical weakening or disappearance of the Islamic Republic of Iran will weaken the Axis as a whole.  If the US combines support for this policy with a firmer stance on Ukraine along with a larger defense budget that is aimed at countering China in the Indo-Pacific, the Axis may fizzle.   If the US continues its policy of appeasement of the weakest of the three Axis powers, they will tighten their cooperation and wreak havoc on the rest of the world.  Iran’s bold attack on Israel, even-though it failed, cannot be seen separate from the goals of China-Russia-Iran axis.  

Separating it is wishful thinking and we will all pay down the road.