Changing Israel’s War Objectives
Iran’s Missile Attack means they need to be Removed as a Regional Threat
The time has come for Israel to change the strategic objectives of the war. The massive Iranian attack on Israel has to be shown to Iran as the biggest mistake the regime has made. This must be the first step in the dismantling or neutering of this terrorist regime. For whatever reason, Obama and Biden both ignored its funding of global terror and its manufacture of ballistic missiles when it negotiated the nuclear deals (as bad as they were even on the nuclear arms issue).
The Old Objectives
Back in October the objectives were clear - destruction of Hamas as a power in Gaza and a return of the hostages held there. As far as I know there was no objective to the war in the north other than to reach a situation where the residents in the border towns, villages and kibbutzim can return to their homes. The assumption by all of us was to push Hezbollah back north of the Litani River either by diplomatic or military means. In the West Bank the goal was to arrest or kill as many terrorists as possible, to confiscate their weapons and to prevent terrorist attacks.
On the front in Syria, the goals were to conduct what the IDF likes to call the “war between the war” – where there would be an attempt to weaken the enemy and their supply lines without committing to their defeat – until the next “real” war. In the southern front versus Yemen the objectives were to prevent attacks from there by shooting down anything shot at Israel. As for the freedom of the seas issue, this was thought to be a global issue and best left to the US Navy and its Commander in Chief.
October 7 and April 13/14
But the time has come for Israel to expand the goals of the conflict. It has always been a five front war for Israel but the main culprit in the training and funding of Israel’s enemies has been let off the hook. It is time to overcome the global pressure and to concentrate on building overt and covert relationships with those Arab and Kurdish countries and groups who oppose Shiite Iranian hegemony in the middle east. This of course is not a new strategy as it was the basis of the Abraham Accords, of the joint air-defense agreements in the region (which just proved themselves) and the negotiations between Israel and Saudi Arabia that stalled after October 7.
If October 7 changed Israel’s military philosophy away from a “small, smart army” to one that can fight on many fronts in the land, air and sea, April 13/14 has toppled the Iranian military’s philosophy that is based on its drone and missile force and arming its proxies in similar fashion. The Iranian military has failed utterly and both Russia and China are certainly re-thinking their own offensive strategies. A missile attack on Taiwan is probably a prelude to a land invasion by the Chinese military and Israel has now proven that that can be defeated. Russia too, has to be looking at the Iranian failure and wondering if now Europe will not try to create a similar layered defense that Israel has and maybe extend that to Ukraine. It could be that Russia will realize that Iranian arms are not what has been advertised.
New Goals
Now that Iran has been pushed onto its back legs this is the time for Israel to reassess its war goals and to move to create a situation where either the Iranian opposition can topple the Islamic regime or the regime’s military capabilities are so degraded that they can no longer be considered a threat to regional stability. This needs to be done patiently but with the knowledge that Iran can become a nuclear power in a matter of months if not weeks. Even with that, the failure of so many Iranian missiles on launch (the estimates are up to 50%) will give them pause in trying to launch a nuclear armed missile towards Israel.
But Israel can’t waste precious time, money and energy on actions that do not take advantage of this new strategic reality. The days of using the military to “send messages” are over and Israel can’t do things that “prove its capabilities”. Rather it has to use those capabilities to devastating effect.
Israel needs to at once strengthen its alliances with regional powers while preparing to change on a dime and fight them if necessary. Israel must follow Lord Palermston’s famous statement about England: “We have no eternal allies, and we have no perpetual enemies. Our interests are eternal and perpetual, and those interests it is our duty to follow”. It is time for Israel to be opportunistic in its foreign and military affairs and to concentrate on its national interests and not on the ideologies of the Davos set. It must be attached to those interests and not to its fair-weather friends like those in Western Europe. Most of Western Europe (Germany is a notable exception) has been antagonistic towards Israel since the mid-1960’s and yet Israel treats that half of the continent as allies it cannot lose. With that being said, the relationship with the United States needs to be strengthened by sharing its military lessons, intelligence (as it does already) and by backing the US fully in its other diplomatic ventures – most notably in Ukraine.
Growing up in the US in the 1970’s there were two Moslem countries that were friendly to Israel – Iran and Turkey. Lebanon was known as the country that would be the second to sign a peace treaty with Israel. The Democrats were pro-Israel and helped Jews world-wide – see Senator Scoop Jackson and his fight to free the Jews of the Soviet Union - and the Republicans were friends with the Saudis and Kuwaitis and in favor of selling grain to the Soviet Union. Senators from NY of either party could be counted on to side with Israel against the Arabs if need be.
This now has now been turned on its head. Israel must understand that what is, maybe not be and what isn’t now, may be in the future.
The current goal though must be the end of the Iranian Shiite threat in the middle east and there are two places to start: Hezbollah and the Iranian Revolutionary Guards (IRG). Hamas of course has to be taken care of first and a rapid operation in Rafah in order to destroy the last of Hamas’s armed force and return the hostages to Israel. This should be followed up by splitting Gaza into four or five occupation zones where Arab countries will control civil administration while the IDF controls security. The main military aspect needs to be completed before July.
Once July starts Israel needs to move the mass of its forces to the north and destroy Hezbollah. Hezbollah is the crown jewel of Iranian regional strategy and the weakening and then destruction of Hezbollah will be a major step in eliminating the Shiite-Iran threat. This will be a long term operation where the start will be conquering open spaces and key Shiite villages south of the Litani and then systematically uncovering and destroying the extensive tunnel network that Hezbollah has built, with North Korean and Iranian help, over the past 20 years. By mid-August at the latest, Israel’s northern border must be made safe enough for the return of its residents.
After that, the war must continue in stages. After each area is cleansed of Hezbollah the civil administration of the region should be handed over either to Arab armies or the French military or a Hezbollah-free Lebanese Army with the IDF having freedom of movement. The destruction of Hezbollah military and civil targets north of the Litani can be done from the air and with short, powerful raids by infantry and armored divisions along with special forces. Once Hezbollah power is eroded enough, Lebanese Sunni, Druze and Christian forces can finish the job.
While all this is happening, Israel and its allies have to hit Islamic Republic and IRG assets. It can start with slowly but surely sinking the Iranian navy, hitting IRG drone and missile bases and manufacturing facilities and, if do-able, its degrading its nuclear capabilities. This would best be done with US and western help but if not, Israel needs to do it on its own, with funding from the gulf Arab states who will be the prime beneficiaries of the fall of the Iranian Islamic Republic. Egypt has to be convinced to join the effort by using its Navy to assist in the Red Sea. Egypt’s economic situation is dire and Gulf money can help persuade the Egyptian government to cooperate. Iranian sea-power backed by the Houthis has devastated traffic through the Suez Canal crippling Egypt’s economy even more.
The Iranian regime needs to start worrying about protecting itself instead of their proxies and the Russians. The West, at a minimum has to snap back sanctions and to return the economic punishments that Biden lifted over the past three years. It has to expose and close the criminal commercial assets that the IRG, Hezbollah and Hamas have developed over the years. Countries in South America need to understand that allying with Iran and Hezbollah will have grave consequences for them. We have all known for the last six months that this is Iran’s war against Israel and the non-Shiite Arab world and that they are a part of the Axis of powers that include China, Russia and North Korea and whose goal is the end of Pax Americana. If the goal of US foreign policy is the maintenance of US global power and influence, the US can no longer separate Iran from the rest of the Axis powers.
To repeat, Israel’s new war objectives ought to be:
1. Destroy the Hamas presence in Gaza and return the hostages.
2. Prepare Gaza for a post-Hamas existence by creating occupation zones that includes the Arab countries in civil administration (see Gaza After the War).
3. Weaken and cutoff the terrorist presence in the West Bank and prepare it for an Emirati like solution (see: A Palestinian Political Solution and more importantly, Part 2).
4. Push Hezbollah beyond the Litani River in order to return Israeli residents to their homes on the border.
5. Destroy the rest of Hezbollah power in Lebanon.
6. Defend itself and its regional allies against missile and drone attacks from Iran. Ideally, the US, France and UK are involved in this defensive effort.
7. Slowly degrade Iranian military capabilities leading either to their being neutered as a regional power or to regime change. This needs to start as soon as feasible.
US and the West
Economic strangulation of the current Iranian regime will be a great help for Israel in completing the above goals. The US needs to take leadership on this issue. If the Biden administration wants to shorten this war it will move quickly in that direction. Iranian oil is supposed to be sanctioned yet Iran manages to sell around $100 billion worth a year – much of it at a discount to China. Iran is also becoming the leading exporter of liquidized natural gas (LNG) in the region. This has to be stopped. If sanctions won’t stop the oil and LNG exports then Israel and its regional allies will have to do it militarily.
April 13/14 has presented Western Europe with a military objective it can wrap its hands around. It can fund and install a layered missile and drone defense system starting with Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic states and then move westward. This can be done in stages and ought to start immediately.
Strangling Iran economically and making its arms exports irrelevant means it will have to cut funding to Hezbollah, the Houthis and the other proxies. This will make Israel’s war against Hezbollah quicker.
Proxies without money are just thugs with sticks and stones. They are a bother but not a threat.