For years I have wondered what the domestic political consequences would be if the Chinese military started taking actual casualties -something that hasn't happened since ca. 1979. The PLA is largely manned by the only sons of one-child families who are expected to be their parents sole support in old age. Perhaps China might test the political waters by sending a few expendables to Ukraine.
The "international rules-based order" cannot accommodate the shifting of international borders, even when just. Thus only the US recognized Israeli sovereignty of the Golan Heights. Parceling up Syria between Israel, Turkey, and the Kurds will never be given international legitimacy.
Ironically, if Trump were to strike Iran, he would increase his leverage in any negotiations in Syria.
The most likely outcome seems to be Witkoff signing JCPOA 2.0 with Iran, allowing Iran to maintain the status quo (60%+ enrichment and only a few weeks from breakout) in return for billions of dollars in sanctions relief. The can will get kicked down the road 4 years, as Iran will hope for a Democratic president in 2028 before making any sudden moves. The months immediately pre/post the November 2028 election will be very dangerous, as Iran could break out or Israel could attack during the lame duck period.
Bibi has zero leverage with Trump since Congressional Republicans will side with Trump and Congressional Democrats seek to constrain/oppose Israel.
The international rules based order is dead. China does not abide. Nor Russia. Nor any country whose safety is threatened. A bold move can create an order that is good for democracies and not depend on the UN.
As for Iran- sadly and fearfully, i agree with you.
For years I have wondered what the domestic political consequences would be if the Chinese military started taking actual casualties -something that hasn't happened since ca. 1979. The PLA is largely manned by the only sons of one-child families who are expected to be their parents sole support in old age. Perhaps China might test the political waters by sending a few expendables to Ukraine.
That is an interesting observation
The "international rules-based order" cannot accommodate the shifting of international borders, even when just. Thus only the US recognized Israeli sovereignty of the Golan Heights. Parceling up Syria between Israel, Turkey, and the Kurds will never be given international legitimacy.
Ironically, if Trump were to strike Iran, he would increase his leverage in any negotiations in Syria.
The most likely outcome seems to be Witkoff signing JCPOA 2.0 with Iran, allowing Iran to maintain the status quo (60%+ enrichment and only a few weeks from breakout) in return for billions of dollars in sanctions relief. The can will get kicked down the road 4 years, as Iran will hope for a Democratic president in 2028 before making any sudden moves. The months immediately pre/post the November 2028 election will be very dangerous, as Iran could break out or Israel could attack during the lame duck period.
Bibi has zero leverage with Trump since Congressional Republicans will side with Trump and Congressional Democrats seek to constrain/oppose Israel.
The international rules based order is dead. China does not abide. Nor Russia. Nor any country whose safety is threatened. A bold move can create an order that is good for democracies and not depend on the UN.
As for Iran- sadly and fearfully, i agree with you.