Turkey, Israel and the United States in Syria

President Trump can Prevent a Major War

The new administration is trying to stop the war in Ukraine, prevent an attack on Iran and get the hostages home alive – all difficult and Sisyphean ventures since Russia feels on the up, Iran and Hamas are fanatics who will never give up their “right” to destroy Israel and kill Jews. There is one war though that President Trump can prevent – and although I don’t think anyone has ever won a Nobel Peace Prize for preventing a war, he would deserve it for this. Israel and Turkey, two US allies, one a NATO member and the other a key strategic and military partner, are each trying to outmaneuver the other in Syria.

Ever since the fall of the murderous Assad regime Israel has moved into parts of southern Syria with a brigade+ of soldiers and regular air attacks. Turkey has taken advantage of the situation by moving troops into northern Syria, doubling down on their war against the Kurds and backing up the Syrian jihadist regime in Damascus. Turkey and Israel have warned each other that there are red lines it won’t let the other cross. Both have the military capabilities to make those threats real.

Israel does not want another major Islamist power on its border. It has taken care of Hezbollah and put Lebanon on a Hezbollah/Iran-free path, if they chose to take it. It won’t be easy but if the will is there, Lebanon can rid itself of the Iranian menace and return to the quiet border it had with Israel until the 1970’s when Arafat turned the south into Fatahland.

A revanchist Erdogan led Turkey is a threat Israel cannot allow on its border, and it is moving swiftly to prevent that, occupying the Syrian part of Mount Hermon and the Syrian Golan. It has also declared that it will defend the Druze population in the south. As we have written before, Syria and its “internationally recognized borders” are not real in any geographic, ethnic or current political aspect but rather is left over from the British and French colonialist division of the middle east – a division that has caused wars and violence ever since.

As for Turkey, Erdogan has a vision of himself and Turkey as neo-Ottoman leaders of the Islamic world and one of the leading goals, in his mind, as leader of the Islamic world is the limiting if not the destruction of the State of Israel. The fact that he and Turkey are not Arab makes them, like Iran, even more determined to bring the Jewish state to its end to prove their Islamic bona fides. Many in Israel claim they are trying to create a proxy army that will annoy and eventually infiltrate Israel, keeping Turkey clean, following the Iranian model. The US must prevent this as Israel will not allow it to happen. If Israel is forced to attack Turkish forces training this proxy army, the end will not be good.

The Trump administration is wasting its time with Iran and with Hamas in thinking that either can be brought to an agreement that leaves them without the option of war – no matter how much money is paid to them and no matter how much respect is given to them. Many in Israel would feel more comfortable if Secretary of State Marco Rubio was leading the negotiations with Iran as opposed to the inexperienced Steve Witkoff who seeks the “best deal possible” as opposed to the only deal that will keep Iran from becoming a nuclear power. The “best deal possible” will leave Iran with nuclear and other strategic capabilities and make President Trump the US President who allowed Iran to become a nuclear power.

As for Russia, Putin seems to me to be pocketing what the US gives to him and in the meanwhile it is strengthening his ties to Iran and China. There are reports that China is sending combat troops to Russia to gain battlefield experience in a possible conflict with Ukraine. Even an end to the war in Ukraine via an armistice (while not a bad thing) will not create the circumstances necessary for Russia to break from Iran and China. A deal with Iran will only strengthen their relationship with China and Russia as they too will pocket their gains and continue their hegemonic, terroristic ways.

Preventing a war between Israel and Turkey though, is still doable as it is in the interests of both countries, as well as the United States and its Arab allies. However, it will take a bold move by President Trump, albeit one that syncs well with his stick in the spokes foreign policy. The time has come to admit that Syria was the mistake of the middle east (so was Iraq) and not, as the Obama gang think, Israel. Syria, along with much of the middle east was divided up to satisfy British and French egos and economies. The time has come for the United States to spearhead a move that will give Turkey northern Syria, Israel the south and reduce the Syrian state to the middle as a minimally armed buffer state which threatens neither country. Syrian and Iraqi Kurdistan need to be united into one Kurdish country with agreement by the Kurds that they are willing to give up Kurdish lands in Turkey and end their fighting against them. An Allawite enclave can be given autonomy under Turkish control. A demilitarized mini-Syrian Sunni state can be formed as a buffer in the center.

In the Israeli controlled area, it ought to annex it and create a Druze autonomous zone. Sunni Syrians in this area need to be resettled in the new Syrian state. Making permanent the Turkish and Israeli presence in what is now northern and southern Syria respectively, will create new opportunities for the peoples of the middle east and similar arrangements can be made in Iraq and eventually help solve the Palestinian and other minority issues. Jordan would be secured by eliminating jihadi incursions from Syria and Iraq and Lebanon will be given a greater chance of its de-Hezbollahization.

If both Turkey and Israel continue to occupy what is currently Syria without a permanent solution acceptable to both sides, there is a good chance of both armies clashing which will, even if the clashes are limited, create permanent tension. The current “occupations” need to be made permanent with all sides recognizing that it is best for all concerned. If the UN does not follow suit, so be it. US recognition of the new reality of what was Syria will be the one action that will prevent another long term war in the region.

Returning to Iran for a moment, the negotiations, which will never lead to a non-nuclear Iran can only lead to degrading American influence and interests in the middle east. Iran will not be an ally of the US and Iran will always strive to “destroy the west”. Only a militarily weakened Iran - or regime change – can give the middle east in general and Lebanon in particular a fighting chance at ridding it of the Iranian menace. The same has to do with Hamas – they will never, under any circumstances release all Israeli hostages short of a formal Israeli surrender of sovereignty (in Israel, from the river to the sea) and assumption of dhimmi status in an Islamist country. Israel needs to be encouraged to increase the level of its fighting in Gaza until the hostages are rescued or handed over by starving Gazans with no rooves over their heads.

If President Trump wants to make a difference in the middle east, he will favor overwhelming military force where diplomacy has failed time and again, and bold diplomatic moves that can solve a problem before it reaches the military stage. Abandon Iranian and Hamas negotiations and move his art of the deal mastery to the Turkish-Syrian-Israeli front. While the Norwegians won’t recognize this peace prize worthy, history and the peoples of the middle east, will.