The West blinked on Oct 8th when it allowed the antisemitism to explode the way it did. The UK blinked when the decision was made NOT to light up Wembley in the Israeli flag as it had done with Ukraine post Russia invasion, and France post Bataclan. The US blinked when it said don’t go into Rafah. The only hope is now Trump winning elections and speeding up collapse of UNRWA and an international / Arab task force arriving in Gaza combined with a carrot / stick approach. No clan in Gaza at this point can take over imo.
Brilliant analysis, excellent recommendations. However, the West will fight like cats to preserve the status quo. The cold, covert, war of attrition directed at Israel by the US, UK and France is breaking down but not very fast. The usual suspects are pouring cash into UNRWA and the NGOs. Too much reputational capital is invested. No way good arguments like yours are getting a hearing.
The way forward is to destroy either Iran's nuclear infrastructure or the oil refineries in the south. The collapse of the regime in Tehran would destroy Washington's strategy of tension and create the ultimate nightmare for the West: a development oriented regime with popular backing, resistant to manipulation by Washington, London or Paris and willing to work with both the Israelis and the Kurds of Northern Iraq.
The war of attrition will break down long term because the regimes across the West are now converging towards the norms of the Global South. This is most apparent in the US where the mukhabarat is now applying a strategy of tension to govern the homeland itself, using tactics that define politics in Beirut or Cairo. The foreign policy establishment in the US find Third World politics thrilling and are synthesising progressive politics with MB/jihadist tactics. Insane is way too weak a word. They have learnt nothing from the experience of Jordan, Lebanon, Kuwait and will find the learning curve a brutal experience. Their approach is destabilised by obsessions and misunderstandings that cannot be corrected. In this they resemble the Palestinians, who have lost everything because they have confused contempt for insight, entitlement for justice and belief for agency. Long term the Western peoples, especially Americans, will resist all this because they will have no choice. In the meantime Israel should just prioritise victory. Five years from now we will be in another world.
Absolutely. The ultimatum is long overdue. But will the Jews act? Because for sure the West will not and the rest of the globe barring a few friends of Israel is out to lunch, busy with their own designs on other people's territory. Hold accountable those who are accountable, namely the people of Gaza. As for the Jews, see my latest piece on substack: https://open.substack.com/pub/schecter/p/enough?r=1wpgf7&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web. It is titled appropriately "Enough!"
I agree - but we can be there if we want. Area by area, neighborhood by neighborhood have to be cleansed of the filth of Hamas and held until someone is willing to control it.
But of course with western pressure to send aid to Hamas so they can sell it and regroup, that seems a difficult task.
The West blinked on Oct 8th when it allowed the antisemitism to explode the way it did. The UK blinked when the decision was made NOT to light up Wembley in the Israeli flag as it had done with Ukraine post Russia invasion, and France post Bataclan. The US blinked when it said don’t go into Rafah. The only hope is now Trump winning elections and speeding up collapse of UNRWA and an international / Arab task force arriving in Gaza combined with a carrot / stick approach. No clan in Gaza at this point can take over imo.
Brilliant analysis, excellent recommendations. However, the West will fight like cats to preserve the status quo. The cold, covert, war of attrition directed at Israel by the US, UK and France is breaking down but not very fast. The usual suspects are pouring cash into UNRWA and the NGOs. Too much reputational capital is invested. No way good arguments like yours are getting a hearing.
The way forward is to destroy either Iran's nuclear infrastructure or the oil refineries in the south. The collapse of the regime in Tehran would destroy Washington's strategy of tension and create the ultimate nightmare for the West: a development oriented regime with popular backing, resistant to manipulation by Washington, London or Paris and willing to work with both the Israelis and the Kurds of Northern Iraq.
Exactly !!!
The war of attrition will break down long term because the regimes across the West are now converging towards the norms of the Global South. This is most apparent in the US where the mukhabarat is now applying a strategy of tension to govern the homeland itself, using tactics that define politics in Beirut or Cairo. The foreign policy establishment in the US find Third World politics thrilling and are synthesising progressive politics with MB/jihadist tactics. Insane is way too weak a word. They have learnt nothing from the experience of Jordan, Lebanon, Kuwait and will find the learning curve a brutal experience. Their approach is destabilised by obsessions and misunderstandings that cannot be corrected. In this they resemble the Palestinians, who have lost everything because they have confused contempt for insight, entitlement for justice and belief for agency. Long term the Western peoples, especially Americans, will resist all this because they will have no choice. In the meantime Israel should just prioritise victory. Five years from now we will be in another world.
Well said.
thanks
Absolutely. The ultimatum is long overdue. But will the Jews act? Because for sure the West will not and the rest of the globe barring a few friends of Israel is out to lunch, busy with their own designs on other people's territory. Hold accountable those who are accountable, namely the people of Gaza. As for the Jews, see my latest piece on substack: https://open.substack.com/pub/schecter/p/enough?r=1wpgf7&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web. It is titled appropriately "Enough!"
Yet another milestone victory!!!
This is how you negotiate with animals unrelenting military pressure and finding those in Gaza who are willing to work with the IDF
Gaza should be made any form of armament free zone.
Anyone found with any form of armaments should be shot .
Spot on, just spot on.
The clans won't bite until they believe that Hamas no longer poses any significant threat to their lives.
We're not there yet.
I agree - but we can be there if we want. Area by area, neighborhood by neighborhood have to be cleansed of the filth of Hamas and held until someone is willing to control it.
But of course with western pressure to send aid to Hamas so they can sell it and regroup, that seems a difficult task.
Holding each neighborhood will require a large & protracted deployment of IDF personnel in Gaza. The uncertainties of Lebanon prevent that right now.
Yes
https://open.substack.com/pub/marcelcousineau/p/the-evil-empire-strikes-again?r=3cw21d&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true