In an interesting turn of events Hamas leader Yihya Sinwar was killed in a battle between the infantry Battalion 450 of the Bislach Brigade and Sinwar and his bodyguards. Although the details are still a bit sketchy, in short what happened was that Battalion 450 detonated an unexploded device and in the midst of doing that saw 5 terrorists. They opened fire, four were killed and one escaped to a building nearby. The Tank company assigned to the battalion was ordered to fire at the building. They then sent in a drone which identified the 5th terrorist (he was injured and threw a stick at the drone) who at some point was visible through a window where a sniper killed him.
Just the next day, they sent in troops to the building and to everyone’s surprise – found Sinwar.
This was accomplished not by superior military intelligence or James Bond like missions or by bunker buster bombs or state of the art stealth fighter-bombers. This was accomplished by an infantry battalion made up of those chosen to be in the squad commanders course – all in the first third of their three year service. The officers of course are veterans. Rather than a series of random events or even miracles , quoting an officer who was there, it was “hard work, professional training, persistence, stubbornness and single minded determination to complete the mission that killed the son of a bitch” - all this is typical of great ground forces.
While it is often the intelligence, spy services, special ops and air force that provide the necessary conditions for victory only the ground forces – infantry, armored divisions, engineering and artillery – that can provide real victory by taking and holding territory and doing the dirty work of clearing an area of enemy fighters, terrorists and weapons, and eventually attaining the defeat of the enemy.
Israel and the West have been offered an opportunity on a silver platter, one not planned for or expected, to create real deterrence by showing the enemy that we can and will do the dirty work necessary for victory. Targeted killings are all fine and good when hitting the likes of Nasrallah, Deff and other high ranking officials of terrorist organizations but when they fall down to field commanders that are killed by expensive planes and bombs and risky intelligence operations, it does not provide the “bang for the buck” that a well fought infantry operation does. It does not show that you are willing to suffer for victory.
This victory that is that the killing of Sinwar, the mastermind of Hamas, is that he was killed in a ground operation – especially one which the world (see “all eyes on Rafah”) and many in Israel’s security establishment opposed as dangerous and unnecessary. It is important in that all signs point to the fact that Sinwar was looking to escape from Gaza (money, forged papers and passports were found with him) through the very tunnels the IDF ground forces are discovering and destroying.
Israel and the west now need to focus on a two-pronged effort to free the hostages and bring an end to Hamas control over Gaza – internal diplomacy and military pressure.
By internal diplomacy we mean ignoring Qatar and Western diplomats who want neither of these goals but only the end of Israeli attacks on Gaza (and Lebanon). It is time, finally to force the issue in Gaza itself by offering those holding the hostages the carrot of life (and maybe some cash) and the stick that is death. It is time to start pressuring and giving support to the non-Hamas powers of Gaza, the extended family units known as the “Hamula” and others to take control of their territory by offering them air, tank and artillery support (and yes, cash) in the fight against Hamas. These Hamulas who are not Hamas (or who are willing to break from them permanently) can replace them in the distribution of food and medical supplies and the running of local services – including medical care. The greatest crime of the West against Gazans was in insisting that Hamas distribute the aid.
The heads of hospitals and social services that are loyal to Hamas must be arrested and forcibly removed and replaced by those loyal to the Hamulas.
My good friends the Goldins, ( see: Ten Long Years – The Fight for Lt. Hadar Goldin whose son has not been given a proper burial in Israel for over ten years due to his being a hostage of Hamas in Gaza, have proposed – years ago! – “humanitarian for humanitarian” in order to get their son back. We need to do that now (should have done it from October 8, 2023) and offer humanitarian aid (and military support, where necessary) to those willing to free hostages and to those willing to step up and take control of the non-military services that Hamas now controls. A time limit ought to be set on this to put as much pressure on those individuals and groups who are holding the hostages. The West needs to support this effort and Qatar needs to be forced to allow those who want safe passage out of Gaza in exchange for the hostages, entry to Qatar.
Humanitarian aid from the Arab world and the West, via Israel, in exchange for humanitarian actions (the freeing of the hostages) needs to be the cornerstone of the Israeli (and Western) policy in Gaza. Sinwar is no more, and the Gazans – Hamas members or not – need to be given a deadline in which to choose the carrot of life or the stick of death.
For those who don’t choose the “carrot” increased and ruthless military action ought to force the issue. We are now in the 13th month of the war and time has come that we stop negotiating in the fancy hotels of Paris, Cairo and Doha and start negotiating in Gaza itself. That is where the hostages are – and only the carrot and stick policy will free them.
This will lead to the final defeat of Hamas and bring back deterrence as Israel’s (and the West’s) enemies will understand that those who live in freedom are willing to do the dirty work (and not just the fancy stuff) in order to maintain that freedom.
Israel cannot waste time with this like it is wasting time “negotiating” with the US over attacking Iran or Hezbollah (how absurd is that??!!) but must act – using a favorite word of the Israeli left – NOW! Immediately.
Israel’s political and military leadership cannot hesitate this time. And the West cannot blink.
An ultimatum must be given today to the people of Gaza and that ultimatum needs to have a short time limit – say 48 or 72 hours – and it must be backed up with very heavy military pressure on Hamas and their friends in Gaza. The job of the Shaback now ought to be to recruit the Hamulas and to turn Hamas members in Gaza with cash and intense physical pressure. There is no time for negotiations in the fancy hotels in Doha, Cairo or Paris but rather but rather in the dusty, dirty ruins of Gaza.
The West blinked on Oct 8th when it allowed the antisemitism to explode the way it did. The UK blinked when the decision was made NOT to light up Wembley in the Israeli flag as it had done with Ukraine post Russia invasion, and France post Bataclan. The US blinked when it said don’t go into Rafah. The only hope is now Trump winning elections and speeding up collapse of UNRWA and an international / Arab task force arriving in Gaza combined with a carrot / stick approach. No clan in Gaza at this point can take over imo.
Brilliant analysis, excellent recommendations. However, the West will fight like cats to preserve the status quo. The cold, covert, war of attrition directed at Israel by the US, UK and France is breaking down but not very fast. The usual suspects are pouring cash into UNRWA and the NGOs. Too much reputational capital is invested. No way good arguments like yours are getting a hearing.
The way forward is to destroy either Iran's nuclear infrastructure or the oil refineries in the south. The collapse of the regime in Tehran would destroy Washington's strategy of tension and create the ultimate nightmare for the West: a development oriented regime with popular backing, resistant to manipulation by Washington, London or Paris and willing to work with both the Israelis and the Kurds of Northern Iraq.