This is all very reminiscent of Israel's 1982 war in Lebanon. The Reagan administration initially offered Israel the greenlight to attack the PLO (via Secretary of State Alexander Haig) & drive the Syrians out of Lebanon. However, once the media began focusing on civilian casualties & a looming civilian bloodbath if the IDF entered Beirut (the bloodbath everyone feared was actually perpetrated by the Phalange in Sabra & Shatila), the US suspended certain arms shipments to Israel & demanded a negotiated cease-fire allowing the PLO leadership & many of their flock to relocate in Tunis. The Syrians remained entrenched in Lebanon until they were forced out decades later after the assassination of Rafic Hariri.
Now, four decades later, we saw initial US support for a strong military response to the events of 10/7. The hope was that Hamas would be quickly defeated leading to a snowball effect where other Islamic extremist forces in the Middle East would also be defanged, Saudi Arabia & Israel would establish diplomatic relations & the Iranian Mullahs would become vulnerable to an internal revolt. Instead, Hezbollah & the Houthis are taking brazen military steps without fear of serious military consequences & the US is warning Israel not to enter Rafah (sound familiar?) for fear of significant civilian casualties. There is also discussion of the US suspending arms deliveries to Israel and/or placing impossible to abide by restrictions on their use.
Despite the many similarities, there is one great difference. In 1982, a growing segment of Israeli society was becoming disenchanted with the war. There were incidents where IDF officers were reputed to have disobeyed orders leading to fears of the IDF tearing apart. Today, Israeli society is united in seeking the destruction of Hamas and the elimination of Hezbollah as a threat to the north.
With or without US support, Rafah will be cleansed of Hamas & Hezbollah will experience the complete military wrath of the IDF.
One more consequence of that war - that is where Thomas Friedman had his first major gig - as Beirut correspondent. The NY Times headline of his infamous article where he falsely claimed that Israel killed 10,000 Lebanese civilians in the first week was the start of his anti-Israel career. His paper repeats such blood libels on a regular basis.
Great article! I would add one more suggestion. Israel should put more effort in the data campaign.... Number of Hamas fighters killed per day, meters of tunnels destroyed, number of Palestinians treated in Israeli hospitals (because there are), and whatever one's position is on allowing aid into Gaza since Israel is supporting that, Israel might as well publish daily numbers of tonnage of aid we inspect and allow in. The press loves numbers and at the moment the only one providing is Hamas and whatever numbers they fabricate.
I agree with this, but I would add an additional point. The Israeli government should make it crystal clear that it will do what it deems necessary for the defense and security of the Jewish state regardless of “world opinion” or the political priorities of the Biden Administration. After all, Israel was established to liberate Jews from dependence on the kindness of strangers. Oskar Schindler was a good man, but no substitute for the IDF.
America is in retreat. I wonder how much Israel can change things while the US dithers and empowers dictators by inaction. The whole global balance of power is off kilter.
No true - Shipping has been hit in Indian waters by Iranian rockets. However that is not important. India sees Israel as an ally and Israel ought to go full in on this.
You are right in many ways. But it seems to me that you did not name a very painful and key mistake for us.
This mistake was made at the very beginning, and after long and difficult months it can no longer be corrected.
This mistake was laid long before the next round of conflict.
No one can clearly explain to me why Israel negotiated with such a dubious mediator as Qatar? Has anyone in the government, among the negotiators, ever heard the story of the Trojan Horse?
Qatar is not a mediator. Qatar is a lobbyist promoting the interests of Hamas. You wonder why the negotiations take so long and every time there is hope that some kind of compromise is visible on the horizon, the negotiations again reach a dead end.
But we saw this negotiating strategy when soldiers were kidnapped on the Lebanese border using a UN vehicle. We saw it during the Second Lebanon War, we saw it during the Shalit deal.
By agreeing to Qatar's mediation, Israel and the other negotiating parties accepted Hamas's rules of the game in advance. This meant that negotiations would be deliberately delayed, forcing Israel to agree to more and more concessions. Qatar legitimizes the negotiations and creates the illusion that these negotiations can lead to some kind of solution.
Absolutely not. These negotiations can only lead to one thing - the fulfillment of Hamas' demands. Which is exactly what happens.
I have very big doubts that those who are negotiating on the Israeli side have sufficient qualifications. If in the future it turns out that we will pay a much higher price as a result of negotiations than Hamas demanded at the very beginning, then my doubts will be confirmed. If not, then I will be only glad.
Sad to say but I often wonder how much Qatari money is directly and indirectly coming into Israel. Politico reported on their "support" for groups assisting hostage families.
Not two days after the war started the head of the National Security Agency Tzachi Hanegbi was drooling all over Qatar as if they were a great old friend.
1. Artillery shells: don't forgeth that the war in Ukraine consumes a huge amounts of them. There might be simply not enough going around in the "free world".
2. Who is holding up Ukraine aid. Very simple. If it's the WH, Mike Johnson could bring it to a vote and force Biden's hand. But he hasn't done it.
3. Hunger in Gaza. I don't know the real humanitarian situation there but I see a lot of Israelis arguing that humanitarian aid isn't necessary or shouldn0t be supplied until all hostages are free.
1. Agree - and the Israeli high command was negligent in not picking this up two years ago. But there are large manufacturers who are still producing these shells and even if the prices are up it would be good for Israel to diversify.
2. Maybe - but the WH could have given in on the border at least partially. Was the real reason that they didn't really want Ukraine to get too much? Speculation on my part.
3. Yes - in all honestly I think that should have been the policy from day 1 -but first Biden and then Netanyahu fell for the Hamas tricks. Now ... Israel would be hard pressed to return to that policy even if many Israelis support it.
1. Israel has the capacity, experience and need to resume production of the necessary ammunition. Many have already noticed this.
The US and Europe cannot now rebuild their economies for mass production, but Russia, North Korea and Iran have already done so.
From the point of view of strategic foresight, this is a good step.
2. My opinion, the reason for the inconsistency of WH both in the case of Ukraine and in the case of Israel is a weak strategy and a poor understanding of what they are faced with.
3. Everything the world knows about what is happening from Hamas sources is a mega lie.
Mega lies repeated by NYT, CNN, BBC, WP, UN.
This means that the mega lie has received legitimation from the leading media.
We are witnessing the emergence of a new ethics. A lie is reprehensible, but if it is a lie about Jews, then it is acceptable.
1. Israel has a population of under 10m people. Israel now manufactures its main assault rifle (they were to switch to the US made M4 bus thought the better of it) and its ammunition. It can produce about 4 tanks and/or other armored vehicles a month. By comparison Germany can produce just 3 a month. As for artillery shells , mortars, grenades - i am not sure. But even if it can't do it all - it has to diversify.
2. Yes - it is a strategy of appeasement that has blown up.
3. Of course - very true. I don't think this can be countered but Israel must double down on its convincing those who are convincible - the non-MSM for example. After hearing Michael Oren I would appoint him FM and send him around to these places.
Before the war, what was supplied to Gaza cannot be called “humanitarian aid.” These were normal supplies to maintain not only the necessary standard of living, but also for everything that is required for the life of any sufficiently developed country. Any materials, any raw materials, any goods (with the exception of weapons assembled into the final product). As it now turns out, even tunnel drilling equipment in large quantities could be brought into Gaza completely (or almost) legally.
Now, of course, the humanitarian situation is much more complicated and many people have to live in difficult conditions. But the hysterical cries that we see in the media “famine” and “catastrophe” are very far away and are unlikely to ever come.
This fits the definition of “bad karma” more, as if you listened to the complaints of the residents of Belgorod about their plight and knew that for two years they rejoiced when Russian multiple launch rocket systems destroyed the Ukrainian Kharkov.
But on a purely mathematical level, I think it's clear that most Gazan's can't survive for long without massive aid influx. They probably don't produce much food within Gaza now.
Ture - but not pressure is put on Hamas and no pressure is put on the UN and Red Cross to keep the aide out of Hamas hands. As a matter of fact there are reports that Israel is trying to use the "hamulot" - large families that control neighborhoods to distribute the aide. In one case, Israel alleges that Hamas has executed members of one of those hamulot.
Totally agree. Unfortunately the world seems to have very little ability and/or willingness to pressure Hamas in any way...
As for intl. orgs., wee see financing for UNRWA being unfrozen again... Israel should step up its strategic communciation big time. It's still only reacting and not getting out in front of events.
The world has a good opportunity to influence Hamas.
1. Stop funding Hamas, stop supporting extremism, hatred and militarization of all spheres of life in Gaza.
2. Do not interfere with Israel's just fight against terrorism.
The world has no desire to influence Hamas. (For example, the Red Cross has all the leverage to ensure a visit to the Israeli hostages. And it doesn’t even pretend that it’s trying to do this. It just says that it didn’t work out.)
Happy to see you suggesting that Israel reach more out to countries like the Baltics, Sweden, Finland, and Poland however, I would suggest this ship is on the verge of sailing away. Truth of the matter is these countries already feel burned by Trump and Israel supporting Trump and from what I can tell at least 75% of their policy elites(like Radislaw Sikorski) have now jumped on Macron’s Euro-Guallist project. Even worse for Israel is at this point many of those countries you mentioned like Poland, Korea, Japan, etc. are not so as much concerned with stopping Iran from getting nuclear weapons but getting nuclear weapons for themselves.
This is all very reminiscent of Israel's 1982 war in Lebanon. The Reagan administration initially offered Israel the greenlight to attack the PLO (via Secretary of State Alexander Haig) & drive the Syrians out of Lebanon. However, once the media began focusing on civilian casualties & a looming civilian bloodbath if the IDF entered Beirut (the bloodbath everyone feared was actually perpetrated by the Phalange in Sabra & Shatila), the US suspended certain arms shipments to Israel & demanded a negotiated cease-fire allowing the PLO leadership & many of their flock to relocate in Tunis. The Syrians remained entrenched in Lebanon until they were forced out decades later after the assassination of Rafic Hariri.
Now, four decades later, we saw initial US support for a strong military response to the events of 10/7. The hope was that Hamas would be quickly defeated leading to a snowball effect where other Islamic extremist forces in the Middle East would also be defanged, Saudi Arabia & Israel would establish diplomatic relations & the Iranian Mullahs would become vulnerable to an internal revolt. Instead, Hezbollah & the Houthis are taking brazen military steps without fear of serious military consequences & the US is warning Israel not to enter Rafah (sound familiar?) for fear of significant civilian casualties. There is also discussion of the US suspending arms deliveries to Israel and/or placing impossible to abide by restrictions on their use.
Despite the many similarities, there is one great difference. In 1982, a growing segment of Israeli society was becoming disenchanted with the war. There were incidents where IDF officers were reputed to have disobeyed orders leading to fears of the IDF tearing apart. Today, Israeli society is united in seeking the destruction of Hamas and the elimination of Hezbollah as a threat to the north.
With or without US support, Rafah will be cleansed of Hamas & Hezbollah will experience the complete military wrath of the IDF.
An interesting connection to Lebanon 1 in 1982.
One more consequence of that war - that is where Thomas Friedman had his first major gig - as Beirut correspondent. The NY Times headline of his infamous article where he falsely claimed that Israel killed 10,000 Lebanese civilians in the first week was the start of his anti-Israel career. His paper repeats such blood libels on a regular basis.
Great article! I would add one more suggestion. Israel should put more effort in the data campaign.... Number of Hamas fighters killed per day, meters of tunnels destroyed, number of Palestinians treated in Israeli hospitals (because there are), and whatever one's position is on allowing aid into Gaza since Israel is supporting that, Israel might as well publish daily numbers of tonnage of aid we inspect and allow in. The press loves numbers and at the moment the only one providing is Hamas and whatever numbers they fabricate.
That is something that I left out. The IDF needs to publish its own numbers and Israel needs to actively call out anyone who trusts the Hamas numbers.
I agree with this, but I would add an additional point. The Israeli government should make it crystal clear that it will do what it deems necessary for the defense and security of the Jewish state regardless of “world opinion” or the political priorities of the Biden Administration. After all, Israel was established to liberate Jews from dependence on the kindness of strangers. Oskar Schindler was a good man, but no substitute for the IDF.
I could not agree more.
America is in retreat. I wonder how much Israel can change things while the US dithers and empowers dictators by inaction. The whole global balance of power is off kilter.
Time to find additional allies. India comes to mind.
India has given little to no sign that they consider Iran an enemy.
No true - Shipping has been hit in Indian waters by Iranian rockets. However that is not important. India sees Israel as an ally and Israel ought to go full in on this.
You are right in many ways. But it seems to me that you did not name a very painful and key mistake for us.
This mistake was made at the very beginning, and after long and difficult months it can no longer be corrected.
This mistake was laid long before the next round of conflict.
No one can clearly explain to me why Israel negotiated with such a dubious mediator as Qatar? Has anyone in the government, among the negotiators, ever heard the story of the Trojan Horse?
Qatar is not a mediator. Qatar is a lobbyist promoting the interests of Hamas. You wonder why the negotiations take so long and every time there is hope that some kind of compromise is visible on the horizon, the negotiations again reach a dead end.
But we saw this negotiating strategy when soldiers were kidnapped on the Lebanese border using a UN vehicle. We saw it during the Second Lebanon War, we saw it during the Shalit deal.
By agreeing to Qatar's mediation, Israel and the other negotiating parties accepted Hamas's rules of the game in advance. This meant that negotiations would be deliberately delayed, forcing Israel to agree to more and more concessions. Qatar legitimizes the negotiations and creates the illusion that these negotiations can lead to some kind of solution.
Absolutely not. These negotiations can only lead to one thing - the fulfillment of Hamas' demands. Which is exactly what happens.
I have very big doubts that those who are negotiating on the Israeli side have sufficient qualifications. If in the future it turns out that we will pay a much higher price as a result of negotiations than Hamas demanded at the very beginning, then my doubts will be confirmed. If not, then I will be only glad.
Sad to say but I often wonder how much Qatari money is directly and indirectly coming into Israel. Politico reported on their "support" for groups assisting hostage families.
Not two days after the war started the head of the National Security Agency Tzachi Hanegbi was drooling all over Qatar as if they were a great old friend.
This was a tragic error.
Agreed overall, but three remarks:
1. Artillery shells: don't forgeth that the war in Ukraine consumes a huge amounts of them. There might be simply not enough going around in the "free world".
2. Who is holding up Ukraine aid. Very simple. If it's the WH, Mike Johnson could bring it to a vote and force Biden's hand. But he hasn't done it.
3. Hunger in Gaza. I don't know the real humanitarian situation there but I see a lot of Israelis arguing that humanitarian aid isn't necessary or shouldn0t be supplied until all hostages are free.
1. Agree - and the Israeli high command was negligent in not picking this up two years ago. But there are large manufacturers who are still producing these shells and even if the prices are up it would be good for Israel to diversify.
2. Maybe - but the WH could have given in on the border at least partially. Was the real reason that they didn't really want Ukraine to get too much? Speculation on my part.
3. Yes - in all honestly I think that should have been the policy from day 1 -but first Biden and then Netanyahu fell for the Hamas tricks. Now ... Israel would be hard pressed to return to that policy even if many Israelis support it.
1. Israel has the capacity, experience and need to resume production of the necessary ammunition. Many have already noticed this.
The US and Europe cannot now rebuild their economies for mass production, but Russia, North Korea and Iran have already done so.
From the point of view of strategic foresight, this is a good step.
2. My opinion, the reason for the inconsistency of WH both in the case of Ukraine and in the case of Israel is a weak strategy and a poor understanding of what they are faced with.
3. Everything the world knows about what is happening from Hamas sources is a mega lie.
Mega lies repeated by NYT, CNN, BBC, WP, UN.
This means that the mega lie has received legitimation from the leading media.
We are witnessing the emergence of a new ethics. A lie is reprehensible, but if it is a lie about Jews, then it is acceptable.
1. Israel has a population of under 10m people. Israel now manufactures its main assault rifle (they were to switch to the US made M4 bus thought the better of it) and its ammunition. It can produce about 4 tanks and/or other armored vehicles a month. By comparison Germany can produce just 3 a month. As for artillery shells , mortars, grenades - i am not sure. But even if it can't do it all - it has to diversify.
2. Yes - it is a strategy of appeasement that has blown up.
3. Of course - very true. I don't think this can be countered but Israel must double down on its convincing those who are convincible - the non-MSM for example. After hearing Michael Oren I would appoint him FM and send him around to these places.
I'm not sure about the humanitarian situation, Gaza relied on humanitarian aid before the war, the situation now is surely worse.
Getting the aid to the people in need in a warzone with hamas stealing everything is very difficult of course.
Before the war, what was supplied to Gaza cannot be called “humanitarian aid.” These were normal supplies to maintain not only the necessary standard of living, but also for everything that is required for the life of any sufficiently developed country. Any materials, any raw materials, any goods (with the exception of weapons assembled into the final product). As it now turns out, even tunnel drilling equipment in large quantities could be brought into Gaza completely (or almost) legally.
Now, of course, the humanitarian situation is much more complicated and many people have to live in difficult conditions. But the hysterical cries that we see in the media “famine” and “catastrophe” are very far away and are unlikely to ever come.
This fits the definition of “bad karma” more, as if you listened to the complaints of the residents of Belgorod about their plight and knew that for two years they rejoiced when Russian multiple launch rocket systems destroyed the Ukrainian Kharkov.
Sure, they reap what the sow.
But on a purely mathematical level, I think it's clear that most Gazan's can't survive for long without massive aid influx. They probably don't produce much food within Gaza now.
That is true. But Hamas must be taken out of the aide process. Without that, the suffering will continue.
Ture - but not pressure is put on Hamas and no pressure is put on the UN and Red Cross to keep the aide out of Hamas hands. As a matter of fact there are reports that Israel is trying to use the "hamulot" - large families that control neighborhoods to distribute the aide. In one case, Israel alleges that Hamas has executed members of one of those hamulot.
Totally agree. Unfortunately the world seems to have very little ability and/or willingness to pressure Hamas in any way...
As for intl. orgs., wee see financing for UNRWA being unfrozen again... Israel should step up its strategic communciation big time. It's still only reacting and not getting out in front of events.
The world has a good opportunity to influence Hamas.
1. Stop funding Hamas, stop supporting extremism, hatred and militarization of all spheres of life in Gaza.
2. Do not interfere with Israel's just fight against terrorism.
The world has no desire to influence Hamas. (For example, the Red Cross has all the leverage to ensure a visit to the Israeli hostages. And it doesn’t even pretend that it’s trying to do this. It just says that it didn’t work out.)
Happy to see you suggesting that Israel reach more out to countries like the Baltics, Sweden, Finland, and Poland however, I would suggest this ship is on the verge of sailing away. Truth of the matter is these countries already feel burned by Trump and Israel supporting Trump and from what I can tell at least 75% of their policy elites(like Radislaw Sikorski) have now jumped on Macron’s Euro-Guallist project. Even worse for Israel is at this point many of those countries you mentioned like Poland, Korea, Japan, etc. are not so as much concerned with stopping Iran from getting nuclear weapons but getting nuclear weapons for themselves.
The question is one of interests and these countries, unlike the US it seems, understand the Russia-Iran-China connection and the weak US response.
They may fear Trump - but they certainly fear Biden's policies, too.
They all must look to a post Pax-Americana world.