Israel’s Diplomatic Impotence
Time to Jump-Start the non-military Offensive
From the start of this war Israel has made diplomatic mistake after mistake but its not too late to correct these unforced errors. While the non-progressive world was shocked and supportive after the October 7 attacks and while Israelis themselves (stupidly) said out-loud that this support will come with an expiration date, that prophecy has come true. Neither Iran nor Hamas, neither Hezbollah nor the Houthis, neither North Korea nor Russia get red lines from the United States, only Israel does (admittedly, red lines from Democratic Presidents don’t always mean much – but that is only true of those given to enemies, not allies). Only Israel gets hauled into court and only Israel gets demands from its “allies” in Europe to “explain their actions” every time Hamas cries wolf and the BBC and CNN take the bait.
Israel has to start taking the offensive in the non-military sphere of this war and it needs to start by sending a message to its allies that will never abandon it yet seem to be doing just that. As the west has done to Ukraine by hand wringing for each weapons system sold to them, Israel is being told how to use which arms and for what purpose. More than that, it needs to send a message to its enemies that Israel won’t concede the diplomatic field any more than it will cede the battlefield.
Armaments
Michael Oren stated on his interview with Hugh Hewitt that while the US is supplying advanced weaponry to Israel it is not supplying much needed artillery shells. After speaking with soldiers and officers who have recently left Gaza it seems that this is true. Israel is running low on basic munitions. It is time to sign arms agreements with countries other than the US and Western Europe. A contract for a few hundred thousand 155mm artillery shells from India and South Korea would be a good start. This Israeli “pivot to Asia” so to speak, will send a message to the Biden-Blinken team that Israel is not a vassal of the US (which is acting like a vassal of Iran) but a sovereign, working democracy.
Just maybe, some US arms manufacturers like General Dynamics, which produces these same shells in Wilkes Barre, Pennsylvania will start to pressure the Administration to sell Israel what it needs lest it lose more contracts. This is Biden’s home territory and laid off workers due to the State Department might not be what he wants during an election year (the US Army also manufactures this ordinance in Scranton – Biden’s home town).
This can be done with other standard munitions. While Israel is at it, it should thank the American taxpayer for decades of service and voluntarily cancel the $3.9bn in arms that the US pays for Israel.
Can it be that it is the White House and not Congress that is really holding up aide to Ukraine and Israel? The new defense budget is a smaller percentage of GDP than the previous one and that only makes sense if you are not planning on defending yourself or helping your allies defend themselves. The $1 trillion in green pork has to be funded somehow.
“Humanitarian” Aide
Gazans are refugees in their own land (as are many Israelis) due to the West’s unwillingness to let Israel win in Gaza (see above). That the allegedly “starving Gazans” (for those old enough to remember – do any pictures of Gazans look anything like those we saw in Biafra and Bangladesh way back when? ) need food and other assistance is understood by everyone in Israel. That this same food and aid should be controlled by Hamas for their own good is something that only Western progressives demand.
Israel should agree to unlimited entry of humanitarian aide to Gaza as long as a plan is presented by the agencies responsible for distributing the aide showing how it will not fall into the hands of Hamas.
If it’s the Red Cross or Doctors without Borders or the UN or the Norwegian Foreign Ministry or the US State Department - Israel should demand a written plan and proof it is being carried out – and in exchange Israel will allow all non-lethal aide into the Gaza.
The Gazan Population
We wrote about this in December and will reiterate the need to jump start the return of Gazans to their neighborhoods by creating Hamas-free zones and to admit only women and children. These areas have to be cleared not only of Hamas but of all men between the ages of 18-50 and temporary shelter ought to be built (by Arab countries) in order to house and feed Gazan women and children. The precedent of separating women and children from the men in the family was taken in the first hostage deal and it should now be implemented on the Gazan side by Israel.
This will allow the “international community” to feed Gazan civilians without aiding and abetting a terrorist organization.
Hamas Leadership
Hamas’s main leaders not in Gaza, Ismail Haniyeh, Khalil al-Hayya and Khaled Mashal reside in a luxury hotel in Doha, Qatar. They are the of the “political wing” of the terrorist organization which, for some reason, gives them diplomatic cover. The time has come for Israel to take the offensive here and to demand of Qatar to arrest the Hamas. If Qatar believes they are part of the “community of nations” and as they are home to one of America’s largest armed forces base, they should confiscate Hamas leaders money and take them to prison. Afterwards, Israel and its allies in the US ought to demand of the Justice Department to start extradition procedures against these three so as to stand trial for the murder, rape and kidnapping of US citizens.
The US, correctly, went into Pakistan to kill Bin-Laden and has searched out and killed or extradited dozens of terrorists and terrorist leaders. Why does Hamas get a pass?
Further, maybe it is time for the US universities that have become subsidiaries of the Qatari terrorist supporting government to demand that these rapists, murderers and kidnappers be brought to justice.
The Day After
Israel in general and Prime Minister Netanyahu in particular have been avoiding the “day after” scenario. Although Netanyahu recently released his “one pager” solution (which did make sense) Israel needs to take the diplomatic initiative on the plan for a Gaza without terror. The emphasis must be on stability and security for Israel and the Gazan population and one not based on the PA solution that Blinken and Co. are so in love with - since that will bring neither stability nor security.
Israel has already split Gaza into a few areas and the border areas between these need to be filled only with IDF personnel. Although it would have been easier to convince Arab countries to take civilian responsibility had this plan been publicized three months ago – I think it is still do-able and countries such as Saudi Arabia, UAE, Morocco and even Egypt could be induced to take part in this. The planning for this needs to start now and can include the United States and those European countries still willing to stand up to Hamas.
The Free World
Israel has to send a message to other free countries that are on the border with Axis countries – those such as the Baltic countries, India, Sweden, Poland, Philippines, Tiawan, South Korea, Japan and others that this Israel-Iran War is their fight, too. Just as the Ukraine war is Europe’s fight, Israel needs to go all out to show that it needs public support by all countries that feel threatened by the Russia-Iran-China-North Korea Axis.
If Israel is forced to leave Hamas in power due to non-military reasons, the United States becomes a vassal of the Axis and its main allies will be left in the cold. With a falling US Defense budget and uncertain leadership, a Hamas victory will surely mean the fall of Pax Americana. Ukraine, Philippines and most probably the Baltic countries will have to face decades of servility to the Axis. So too, the UAE and Saudi Arabia.
This message must be hammered home in the capitals of these countries both publicly and privately.
In short… it is time for Israel to take over the conversation, or the “narrative”, as the kids like to say.
This is all very reminiscent of Israel's 1982 war in Lebanon. The Reagan administration initially offered Israel the greenlight to attack the PLO (via Secretary of State Alexander Haig) & drive the Syrians out of Lebanon. However, once the media began focusing on civilian casualties & a looming civilian bloodbath if the IDF entered Beirut (the bloodbath everyone feared was actually perpetrated by the Phalange in Sabra & Shatila), the US suspended certain arms shipments to Israel & demanded a negotiated cease-fire allowing the PLO leadership & many of their flock to relocate in Tunis. The Syrians remained entrenched in Lebanon until they were forced out decades later after the assassination of Rafic Hariri.
Now, four decades later, we saw initial US support for a strong military response to the events of 10/7. The hope was that Hamas would be quickly defeated leading to a snowball effect where other Islamic extremist forces in the Middle East would also be defanged, Saudi Arabia & Israel would establish diplomatic relations & the Iranian Mullahs would become vulnerable to an internal revolt. Instead, Hezbollah & the Houthis are taking brazen military steps without fear of serious military consequences & the US is warning Israel not to enter Rafah (sound familiar?) for fear of significant civilian casualties. There is also discussion of the US suspending arms deliveries to Israel and/or placing impossible to abide by restrictions on their use.
Despite the many similarities, there is one great difference. In 1982, a growing segment of Israeli society was becoming disenchanted with the war. There were incidents where IDF officers were reputed to have disobeyed orders leading to fears of the IDF tearing apart. Today, Israeli society is united in seeking the destruction of Hamas and the elimination of Hezbollah as a threat to the north.
With or without US support, Rafah will be cleansed of Hamas & Hezbollah will experience the complete military wrath of the IDF.
Great article! I would add one more suggestion. Israel should put more effort in the data campaign.... Number of Hamas fighters killed per day, meters of tunnels destroyed, number of Palestinians treated in Israeli hospitals (because there are), and whatever one's position is on allowing aid into Gaza since Israel is supporting that, Israel might as well publish daily numbers of tonnage of aid we inspect and allow in. The press loves numbers and at the moment the only one providing is Hamas and whatever numbers they fabricate.