Ira, with respect, the fact that other countries depend on the US doesn't disprove Taleb's point about Israel's dependence on US good will.
I'd add two other fragilities: "It was the need to penetrate them without causing casualties to soldiers as well as the potential of hostages in the tunnels,"
Israel is very casualty averse. I'm not telling you not to be. Just saying. Though I dislike WW2 analogies I'll make one: the Japanese attacked the US because they knew that the islands they occupied were their strategic depth. They were sure that Americans would never send their sons to die on fly specks in the Pacific. They were wrong.
Imagine saying, "It was the need to take over the Japanese occupied islands in the Pacific without causing casualties to soldiers as well as the potential of hostages in the tunnels..." you can't. The US lost thousands of men on those beaches.
Israel was very vulnerable on the hostage issue. That's why they were taken.
Finally, you're at war with each other. No need to lie about this. The Kaplan Street crowd is at war with you. Sorry, that's 3 fragilities.
Re the uniforms, if you check ThomasNet, a product-sourcing catalog, you’ll find a number of companies that still manufacture clothing in the USA. Some specialize in workplace protective clothing, and I think some have military offerings.
Hi Ira, I cross-posted this. If you'd like me to check the translation from the article in L'Orient-Le Jour, I'd be happy to, but it's paywalled. So send me a PDF if you're keen to know. (Your version of it is perfectly serviceable for provoking thought, however.)
Many useful -somtimes disturbing- insights here -I have shared the post. Your use of the word "existential" above is an especially unnerving euphemism. A good exposition -of Taleb's work, and of Israel's situation. I first noted the beginning of the woke decline of the US military more than 40 years ago. The officer class is full of managerial elites and defense corporation wanna-bes, who carefully toe the political line so as not to jeopardize their carefully laid-out career goals. And to hell with the troops they command or the country they have sworn to defend.
Israel has the same issues with the officer corp. But for some reason it doesn't seem to happen to them until they rise above the rank of Colonel. My own view is that they then start to think of themselves as diplomats, global peace warriors and potential politicians. They mostly live in Tel-Aviv and read the radically anti-Zionist Ha'aretz newspaper. For the most part they were brave and bold junior officers who have not had the time to think seriously about issues beyond military tactics. And then - they start with post-Zionist, Post-Modern garbage that Ha'aretz spews and speak with wealthy Americans and western senior officers.
My own opinion—now that I’ve been prodded to think about the question—is that Israel is an anti-fragile country for one bedrock reason: its raison d'etre, which is “Never Again.”
It should now be obvious to Israel that the United States can't be trusted for anything. Both the woke left and the 'murica First right will take joy in Israel's suffering and destruction. Both factions will grow in influence if their candidate wins the next US election. As Biden's generation dies, the antisemitic left will have no adult supervision and the Democrat Party will become a Hamas ally in all but name. The direction of the Republican Party is more difficult to predict since it's not clear how much Trumpist ideology is actually transferable beyond Trump as a personality cult. It may be able to remake itself into something else before the Democrats do, but Israel should not be betting its existence either on friendship with Trump or friendship with whatever emerges from the Trump wreckage.
Since the US does not have Israel's interests anywhere on its radar of concern, US aid to Israel may be counterproductive by forcing Israel to cater to US public opinion, which is both ignorant and fickle when it isn't malicious. Money comes with strings and from a country as morally bankrupt as the United States in 2023, those strings are chains. I do not agree with the theory in the article that "[g]iving up US taxpayer aide during a time of fiscal uncertainty would certainly be looked upon positively." It wouldn't change any opinions in the US. Antisemitism never has reasons, only pretexts. The isolationist right will find other reasons to hate Israel even if there is no US aid. The antisemitic left already has. But perhaps Israel needs to take American antipathy towards it as a given to crystallize for itself what it has to do to survive.
This is a difficult and depressing comment. I wish I could disagree.
I would say that I am a bit more hopeful that the US public will wake up to what the woke-celebrity-left is doing to it and take back their culture and country. There certainly has to be a way to convince the rational right and left that they must start working hard to heed Ben Franklin's ".... a Republic, if you can keep it".
As for the isolationist right - I don't believe they have much voting strength sans Trump. And Trump does what is good for Trump. He is as non-ideological as he is narcissistic. But that is why his policies can often work.
Remember the USS Liberty. Who can’t be trusted? If I could get my government to not contribute one more red cent to Israel I would do so, it would be a joyful parting of ways.
Two thoughts. One, Netanyahu gave up his optionality when he pledged to eliminate Hamas, which is a difficult thing to do. He could have pledged to degrade Hamas's military capability, or to make them pay, or to make Israel safe from Hamas for the foreseeable future. An objective that would enable him to declare victory whenever he might deem that to be in the interest of Israel. Instead he locked himself into a position from which it will be hard to climb down.
Second, to reduce Israel's fragility, one thing it could theoretically do (if it isn't already) is to launch a full throttle online information war to at least try to move world opinion in their direction. Unless I miss my guess, Russia, Iran, and China (among others) seem to be almost unopposed as Israel gets trashed online. And since young US voters get their news from platforms like Instagram, Tiktok, and Youtube, this is a disaster. As a sophisticated tech player, one would think that Israel has the means to fight in this arena.
Regarding Netanyahu giving up optionality you are correct - but this was a choice he didn't have if he wanted to survive. That was his and the IDF's General Staff way for the last 20 years - bomb a little and declare victory. The people bought it a few times - they won't buy it now. There is no choice for any PM in Israel but to destroy Hamas. That is the only reason why there is still a unity government and why Netanyahu has not backtracked. The protests we saw in 2023 regarding judicial reform is child's play compared to what will be if any PM decides to "declare victory and go home".
As for an information war - yes - Israel doesn't seem to be able to get on track with that.
There is always an Israel effort, it just always falls short. To me it seems Israel always plays defense and never offense. Also, it doesn't seem to concentrate on the right things.
For example - I have not seen refutations of some of the more ridiculous articles in the NY Times, WSJ or Wash Post.
Making a film of the Hamas atrocities was good - but not enough.
Great article with a lot to think about. For now, I'm focusing on this: "the lack of central control over the first hours of the war that Saturday morning,"
I really want to know what happened in those fateful 6 hours.
I mean, a few weeks before you had people like Yuval Diskin telling reservists to disobey orders.
That was dishonorable and insane - and did that kind of thinking have any effect on the chain of command in those first 6 hours?
I‘m pretty sure that Israel has at all times enough ammo in stock to fight a 2 front war. One thing on the Israeli wish list are JDAM kits which turn unguided bombs to guided bombs. The US cutting supply would lead to more civilian casualties in Gaza because Israel would have to drop ‚dumb‘ ordnance. I also think that Israel has shown incredible resilience in unexpected ways: several thousand Haredi men taking up arms and joining the IDF for example.
The younger generation has shown that it is growing up quickly and correctly. I see in them not only a willingness to defend the country, but also a willingness to return and maintain order in the country.
I believe that they can be trusted more than the current government. These are undoubtedly good guys.
a. He did not want to destroy the courts. Would you be willing to have your current Supreme Court have veto power over who replaces it? That is the way it is in Israel.
b. Netanyahu has not avoided prosecution but is under prosecution.
c. Strongmen don't face electors 5 times in 4 years - losing 4 times.
Ira, with respect, the fact that other countries depend on the US doesn't disprove Taleb's point about Israel's dependence on US good will.
I'd add two other fragilities: "It was the need to penetrate them without causing casualties to soldiers as well as the potential of hostages in the tunnels,"
Israel is very casualty averse. I'm not telling you not to be. Just saying. Though I dislike WW2 analogies I'll make one: the Japanese attacked the US because they knew that the islands they occupied were their strategic depth. They were sure that Americans would never send their sons to die on fly specks in the Pacific. They were wrong.
Imagine saying, "It was the need to take over the Japanese occupied islands in the Pacific without causing casualties to soldiers as well as the potential of hostages in the tunnels..." you can't. The US lost thousands of men on those beaches.
Israel was very vulnerable on the hostage issue. That's why they were taken.
Finally, you're at war with each other. No need to lie about this. The Kaplan Street crowd is at war with you. Sorry, that's 3 fragilities.
Re the uniforms, if you check ThomasNet, a product-sourcing catalog, you’ll find a number of companies that still manufacture clothing in the USA. Some specialize in workplace protective clothing, and I think some have military offerings.
Thanks for that.
Hi Ira, I cross-posted this. If you'd like me to check the translation from the article in L'Orient-Le Jour, I'd be happy to, but it's paywalled. So send me a PDF if you're keen to know. (Your version of it is perfectly serviceable for provoking thought, however.)
Thank you. I just found an English translation (although haven't read it yet)
https://today.lorientlejour.com/article/1362814/is-israel-a-fragile-state-interview-with-nassim-nicholas-taleb.html
Many useful -somtimes disturbing- insights here -I have shared the post. Your use of the word "existential" above is an especially unnerving euphemism. A good exposition -of Taleb's work, and of Israel's situation. I first noted the beginning of the woke decline of the US military more than 40 years ago. The officer class is full of managerial elites and defense corporation wanna-bes, who carefully toe the political line so as not to jeopardize their carefully laid-out career goals. And to hell with the troops they command or the country they have sworn to defend.
Israel has the same issues with the officer corp. But for some reason it doesn't seem to happen to them until they rise above the rank of Colonel. My own view is that they then start to think of themselves as diplomats, global peace warriors and potential politicians. They mostly live in Tel-Aviv and read the radically anti-Zionist Ha'aretz newspaper. For the most part they were brave and bold junior officers who have not had the time to think seriously about issues beyond military tactics. And then - they start with post-Zionist, Post-Modern garbage that Ha'aretz spews and speak with wealthy Americans and western senior officers.
Some insight into this Israeli divide may be gained from this Tablet article: https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/israel-middle-east/articles/israel-patriotic-citizens-privileged-elites I myself have noted a similar divide between people like myself, and Catholics who call themselves "progressive" (I call them quislings). I attribute it to status anxiety and class envy.
Very interesting and thought-provoking article.
My own opinion—now that I’ve been prodded to think about the question—is that Israel is an anti-fragile country for one bedrock reason: its raison d'etre, which is “Never Again.”
I would say its people are anti-fragile while its elites ... not so much.
It should now be obvious to Israel that the United States can't be trusted for anything. Both the woke left and the 'murica First right will take joy in Israel's suffering and destruction. Both factions will grow in influence if their candidate wins the next US election. As Biden's generation dies, the antisemitic left will have no adult supervision and the Democrat Party will become a Hamas ally in all but name. The direction of the Republican Party is more difficult to predict since it's not clear how much Trumpist ideology is actually transferable beyond Trump as a personality cult. It may be able to remake itself into something else before the Democrats do, but Israel should not be betting its existence either on friendship with Trump or friendship with whatever emerges from the Trump wreckage.
Since the US does not have Israel's interests anywhere on its radar of concern, US aid to Israel may be counterproductive by forcing Israel to cater to US public opinion, which is both ignorant and fickle when it isn't malicious. Money comes with strings and from a country as morally bankrupt as the United States in 2023, those strings are chains. I do not agree with the theory in the article that "[g]iving up US taxpayer aide during a time of fiscal uncertainty would certainly be looked upon positively." It wouldn't change any opinions in the US. Antisemitism never has reasons, only pretexts. The isolationist right will find other reasons to hate Israel even if there is no US aid. The antisemitic left already has. But perhaps Israel needs to take American antipathy towards it as a given to crystallize for itself what it has to do to survive.
This is a difficult and depressing comment. I wish I could disagree.
I would say that I am a bit more hopeful that the US public will wake up to what the woke-celebrity-left is doing to it and take back their culture and country. There certainly has to be a way to convince the rational right and left that they must start working hard to heed Ben Franklin's ".... a Republic, if you can keep it".
As for the isolationist right - I don't believe they have much voting strength sans Trump. And Trump does what is good for Trump. He is as non-ideological as he is narcissistic. But that is why his policies can often work.
Remember the USS Liberty. Who can’t be trusted? If I could get my government to not contribute one more red cent to Israel I would do so, it would be a joyful parting of ways.
Two thoughts. One, Netanyahu gave up his optionality when he pledged to eliminate Hamas, which is a difficult thing to do. He could have pledged to degrade Hamas's military capability, or to make them pay, or to make Israel safe from Hamas for the foreseeable future. An objective that would enable him to declare victory whenever he might deem that to be in the interest of Israel. Instead he locked himself into a position from which it will be hard to climb down.
Second, to reduce Israel's fragility, one thing it could theoretically do (if it isn't already) is to launch a full throttle online information war to at least try to move world opinion in their direction. Unless I miss my guess, Russia, Iran, and China (among others) seem to be almost unopposed as Israel gets trashed online. And since young US voters get their news from platforms like Instagram, Tiktok, and Youtube, this is a disaster. As a sophisticated tech player, one would think that Israel has the means to fight in this arena.
Regarding Netanyahu giving up optionality you are correct - but this was a choice he didn't have if he wanted to survive. That was his and the IDF's General Staff way for the last 20 years - bomb a little and declare victory. The people bought it a few times - they won't buy it now. There is no choice for any PM in Israel but to destroy Hamas. That is the only reason why there is still a unity government and why Netanyahu has not backtracked. The protests we saw in 2023 regarding judicial reform is child's play compared to what will be if any PM decides to "declare victory and go home".
As for an information war - yes - Israel doesn't seem to be able to get on track with that.
I take your point on optionality, it makes sense. As for information war -- do you have any knowledge about an Israeli effort, if any?
There is always an Israel effort, it just always falls short. To me it seems Israel always plays defense and never offense. Also, it doesn't seem to concentrate on the right things.
For example - I have not seen refutations of some of the more ridiculous articles in the NY Times, WSJ or Wash Post.
Making a film of the Hamas atrocities was good - but not enough.
Great article with a lot to think about. For now, I'm focusing on this: "the lack of central control over the first hours of the war that Saturday morning,"
I really want to know what happened in those fateful 6 hours.
I mean, a few weeks before you had people like Yuval Diskin telling reservists to disobey orders.
That was dishonorable and insane - and did that kind of thinking have any effect on the chain of command in those first 6 hours?
I‘m pretty sure that Israel has at all times enough ammo in stock to fight a 2 front war. One thing on the Israeli wish list are JDAM kits which turn unguided bombs to guided bombs. The US cutting supply would lead to more civilian casualties in Gaza because Israel would have to drop ‚dumb‘ ordnance. I also think that Israel has shown incredible resilience in unexpected ways: several thousand Haredi men taking up arms and joining the IDF for example.
There are no good guys in that war.
There most certainly are. The IDF's soldiers and officers - many reserves who have left their families to fight the evil that is Hamas..
The younger generation has shown that it is growing up quickly and correctly. I see in them not only a willingness to defend the country, but also a willingness to return and maintain order in the country.
I believe that they can be trusted more than the current government. These are undoubtedly good guys.
Netanyahu tried to destroy the courts. That is exactly what strongmen do at first. He has avoided prosecution for too long.
a. He did not want to destroy the courts. Would you be willing to have your current Supreme Court have veto power over who replaces it? That is the way it is in Israel.
b. Netanyahu has not avoided prosecution but is under prosecution.
c. Strongmen don't face electors 5 times in 4 years - losing 4 times.
All strongmen are fundamentally fragile.
True - but Israel has no strongmen.