Where to in the North?

Two Messages Have Been Sent

Two recent news items have thrown a monkey wrench into the Lebanese War predictions that have been floating through the universe since October.    Last week Hezbollah threatened Cyprus with retaliation if they support Israel during a coming ground war with Israel and Nir Dvori, the Channel 12 Israel news military correspondent stated that in case of a war with Lebanon, Israel will use new weapons it has never used before and emphasized that he meant “non-conventional” weapons. 

Nir Dvori is the mouthpiece of the senior IDF officer corp.   He is well connected and, although he has had some scoops that the brass would rather be left undiscussed, he is always there to let the people know what the Generals want it to know.   So, if he is reporting that Israel will use new weapons it has never used before it is a message the brass wants the people to know.  It could be a bluff by the General Staff to either worry Hezbollah or re-assure the Israeli public that it doesn’t know everything.   Or …  it could be true.

What is behind this statement if it is true?   Nuclear weapons, which is the first to come to mind when mentioning “non-conventional” weapons seems not to be it.  Israel would almost certainly not have America’s support for nuclear weapons but even if it did,  the main Hezbollah threat is their missiles and rockets and they are mostly from mobile launchers and  nuclear weapons would be ineffective for these.   Even those deep underground are not close enough together.  Biological and chemical weapons are also to be out of the question.   Israel won’t indiscriminately bomb Hamas terrorists in Gaza and it is hard to believe they would use these illegal weapons in Lebanon.

If we put aside the conventional non-conventional weapons it will leave us, I think, with two possible surprises (I am not saying anything secret here because I don’t know anything secret) – let’s call them non-conventional non-conventional weapons. The first would be electronic warfare of a type not used before.  Israel has a certain expertise in cyber warfare that could possibly knock out radar and other systems needed for guidance of rockets, missiles, and drones.   But this requires objects connected to the internet.  There has also been talk of electro-magnetic pulse bombs that would deactivate just about everything electronic in Lebanon but no one seems to know if this is a real weapon, let alone if Israel has it.   This would be a game changer if it would work.  A second possibility could be submarine based warfare (see below) which could include attacks with cruise and ballistic missiles. 

A third possibility could be ground to ground missiles with extra heavy warheads or advanced artillery systems that flatten square miles of territory at once.

Israel’s main goal would be to stop the missile and rocket attacks to destroy its cities, army and air force bases and its infrastructure and missile defense will probably be overwhelmed by the sheer numbers of rocket attacks.   I am sure the Iranians have learned something from their failed attack in April so we can’t expect a success rate like we had then.   If Israel were able to neutralize these weapons – which will come from Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Iran and Yemen (and maybe northern Cyprus?), it would be able to use its air force to support ground operations and push Hezbollah beyond the Litani River without devastating attacks to its own home front.   From public information, the IDF’s plan is to be able to neutralize Hezbollah systems within a week – but a week can cause tremendous damage to Israel. 

Which brings us to the Lebanon’s threat to Cyprus. Hezbollah, like the rest of the Arab world make lots of threats that can’t be back but in this case there is more than meets to eye.  We have to understand that Hezbollah equals Iran and is one part (a main part) of the ultimate goal is creating Iranian-Shiite hegemony over the middle east.  The main obstacle is of course Israel and Iran has been working for decades to surround Israel with either Shiite fighters or Shiite armed and allied Sunni fighters. They have succeeded in blocking the port of Eilat in the south, in arming Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza, with proxies in Iran and Syria and mostly with Hezbollah in Lebanon.  We can add to that the growing strength of Hamas in the West Bank and Israel is faced with Iranian threat from all its borders with the exception of that with Jordan and the Mediterranean Sea.  Jordan is on their radar and they already use it to smuggle weapons to the West Bank.

That brings us to Cyprus.   Way back when in a different era the Turks invaded Cyprus and took control of the northern third of the island.    A NATO country with major US air bases and a long border with the Soviet Union, Kissinger thought it wise to ignore the invasion.    The Greeks were none to happy, but they did not compare strategically to Turkey.  Currently, there are several tens of thousands of refugees there that came from Syria and Iraq and the Iranians, according to this report are very involved in education with these refugees and mostly Arabic and Farsi is being spoken.   Further, there are reports that Iran has infiltrated terrorists into the island.  

What do they want with northern Cyprus?   The most radical plan would be a takeover of the entire island but that does not seem too likely as that would risk war with the EU and possibly Greece and then NATO.    Also, Turkey would not allow the Iranians to take control of an island country they want for themselves.  However, Turkey might let Iran use it as a base to either kidnap Israelis from the southern part of the island or even as a base to disrupt shipping into the Haifa harbor, Houthi style.   It also could be another base to attack Israeli natural gas fields.

This might be one of the surprises that Iran has been hinting at if Israel moves ground troops into Lebanon.  They can move their intelligence and other naval forces into the Mediterranean in order to further disrupt Israel’s shipping and energy production.   This would be an eighth front against Israel – the others being Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Iran, Gaza, West Bank and Yemen.  The US has already stated it won’t help Israel fend off missile attacks from Iran again.  General Brown, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs has claimed that “no attacks had been carried out on US bases in the region since February”  - many reports have said otherwise, but if true it means that the US has come to some sort of an agreement with Iran – or to put it more bluntly, the US has been deterred by Iran.

Reports by workers at Beirut airport claim that the airport is a major arms depot site for Hezbollah.   Further reports say that the Damascus airport, which has been known for years as being a major recipient of Iranian arms (and which Israel bombs periodically) has recently received a large shipment of ammunition which is then put on Red Crescent (Islamic Red Cross) trucks to ship to Lebanon.

Russia is also a player in this game as they have moved spy ships into the Mediterranean for the purpose of following Israeli submarines.  This is especially important for Iran as Israeli’s newest submarine has, according to rumors, the ability to launch up to 8 ballistic missiles, in addition to cruise missiles.  The Russians seem to be taking their relationship with Iran seriously which makes the US appeasement of Iran all the more frustrating.

In a ground war Israel will be expecting attacks from Iran, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Lebanon, Gaza and maybe Cyprus.   There will be continued fighting in the West Bank and Gaza, even after Rafah, will have sufficient power to be disruptive.    This means that Israel will need to pre-empt and take a very aggressive stance from the start.   It is an open question if Israel will consider this a war against Lebanon or against Hezbollah.   If against Lebanon, Israel will look to destroy the country’s infrastructure from Beirut airport to its electricity infrastructure.  If against Hezbollah then mostly Shiite villages and known Hezbollah bases will be targeted.  In any event all the bridges over the Litani will be taken out as will be the roads that allow Iran to re-arm Hezbollah from Syria,   The hope is that internal Lebanese forces will disrupt, if not actually fight Hezbollah forces. 

As for rocket attacks from Iraq and Syria my guess is that Israel’s air defenses will have to deal with that.   Syrian based attacks could also include ground attacks into the Golan.  Israel would have to destroy these forces before they reach the border – something it is capable of doing.  

Iran presents another challenge, especially since the US has said that they won’t help Israel defend itself against Iranian drones and missiles.  My own view is that Israel should hit Iranian missile and other Iranian Revolutionary Guard bases in a massive air and sea attack – combined with one of those “unconventional” weapons we suggested above – or to be honest, some other that we have not thought of.

Will Israel be able to neutralize all these attacks with unconventional or new weapons?  That is something no one has the answer to.  

Clausewitz, as summarized nicely  by James Holmes of the US Naval War College has “three R’s” that have to be considered as a nation plans to invade another country:  Reward, Risk and Resources.

The reward to invading Lebanon and destroying Hezbollah as a fighting force is obvious as it will reduce a 30 year Iranian investment to rubble and set back Iran’s plans for regional hegemony.   It will remove the main Shiite position around Israel and will provide a quiet border – as it was before the 1970’s.

The risks are also obvious.  The risks of starting an invasion and failing to destroy Hezbollah would mean the destruction of much of Israel’s infrastructure, the death of thousands if not tens of thousands of Israelis and would set Israel back decades.   I don’t think the risk is the destruction of Israel unless Iran would use nuclear weapons.   That also can’t be ruled out.

Resources is the key here as the Biden-Blinken administration has had no problem using resupply as a tool to force Israel’s hand.   This might not be the case with a war against Hezbollah, especially if Iran becomes involved but that is something Israel can’t take for granted.  Also, with Russian naval forces in the Mediterranean combined with Iranian vessels Israeli shipping will be threatened.  While the Russians might not want to shoot down US C130’s or C-17’s, Iran might not hesitate – especially if they can claim it is a proxy attack.

Hezbollah and Iran are happy with the current situation where Israeli civilians are living in hotels and the buffer zone is south of the border.  They are testing out new weapons and tactics and damaging Israeli border towns and kibbutzim and hitting Israeli military installations.  They have lost 3-400 fighters including some senior commanders but for Iran that is a sacrifice worth taking if Israel’s northern border is a mess.   It is hard to believe that Iran will agree to any of Israel’s demands to move Hezbollah to the Litani since they know that the current US Administration does not have Israel’s back. 

If Israel is to move across the border they will need to change gears and move to blitzkrieg mode and initiate a devastating attack on Hezbollah’s and Iran’s rocket and missile forces nearly equal to Israel’s destruction of the Egyptian air force that started the Six Day War of 1967.    In addition, the IDF will have to stop listening to lawyers and allow their commanders to fight as other armies fight.  It is clear from Gaza that holding back gets you no brownie points with the “virtuous” anyway.  Another wild card is Israel’s political situation.  Will Gantz come back into the government if there is escalation in the north?  Will Lapid?  Lieberman?   Will Netanyahu invite them in?

It is hard to see how this ends diplomatically but stranger things have happened.  Of course, as we stated at the very start of the war, (Part 1 and Part 2) if you want to avoid war you need to deter.  The best way to deter would have been taking out Iranian Revolutionary Guard bases in Iran in retaliation for Iranian proxy attacks or stopping the Houthis from blockading a major international waterway – but the Biden Administration has no interest in weakening the Islamic Republic.   It would be one thing to try to befriend Iran so has to pull them away from China and Russia (as Kissinger did with Egypt to end the 1973 Yom Kippur War) – but there are no expectations from Iran, let alone demands.   

This will not be a fun summer in the middle east.