What Next after the Gantz Resignation?

Yet Another Look at Israeli Politics in 2024

Benny Gantz is a good man and a patriot.  He is not a great man.  Gantz has spent his career in the military as being either the last man standing or the consensus figure, when promotions came up.   From early on in his career up until his appointment at IDF Chief of Staff Gantz has been in the right place at the right time.  Politics plays a part in the appointment of nearly all positions in all institutions and Gantz has been that person who would be identified as competent enough and malleable enough.  There are people like that in all walks of life and if they don’t face major crises they can manage. 

His stint as IDF Chief of Staff came about because of a corruption case. Gantz was the beneficiary of this corruption but was not involved in it.

The year was 2010-11 and the Chief of Staff then, Gabi Ashkenazi, who was appointed by then PM Ehud Olmert to replace the failed Dan Halutz after the Second Lebanon War, was nearing the end of his four year term.   The Chief of Staff official term is three years with the option by the Defense Minister and the government for a fourth year.  The Prime Minister at the end of Ashkenazi’s term was Benjamin Netanyahu and the Defense Minister was Ehud Barak.   Netanyahu and Barak were always rivals but, as happens in parliamentary politics, each needed the other and they worked well together.  

Ashkenazi and Barak did not get along.   They came from different parts of the army – Barak from the elite Sayaret Matkal and Ashkenazi was from the regular infantry – not just the regular infantry, but from Golani.  Golani has a reputation of taking on the enemy with brawn and might, no matter the circumstances.  They are the contrast to the Paratroopers – the other main infantry brigade.  The saying goes that when there is an order to take a hill, or a village, the Paratroopers figure the most efficient way to take it and Golani charge straight ahead, no matter the terrain.   In an army, both attitudes are necessary. 

Barak, while not a Paratrooper, came from the same mold.  The elite commando units, like the Paratroopers wear red berets (after the British airborne troops).  Golani wears brown.  In Israeli culture, families are often one or the other.  When a friend’s son was drafted into the Egoz unit – a special forces unit that trains with Golani he was following his two brown bereted brothers.   When Egoz was made part of the Commando Brigade and he had to wear a red beret …. His brothers had a decision to make. 

So, we had the Red Beret Barak vs the Brown Beret Ashkenazi – each with their own attitudes.  For Ashkenazi, the army was tanks and foot soldiers and for Barak it was airborne, air force and special forces.

Barak’s choice to replace Ashkenazi was a general who started as a Navy Seal (Shayetet 13) – the current Defense Minister, Yoav Galant.  He was a logical choice as he filled the “necessary” positions.  However, there was a problem.  Ashkenazi did not like him and was determined to sabotage the appointment.  First, there was a leak that Galant extended his house onto land that was government land, illegal even in Israel.  This leak ended up being true.

But what happened next was the most serious obstacle.  It seems that Ashkenazi, along with then IDF head lawyer and later to be Chief Legal advisor to the government,  Avichai Mandelblit (someone else took the fall for it and neither Ashkenazi nor Mandelbit were ever charged) allegedly forged a document that was in the name of Galant that detailed plans to smear rival candidate Benny Gantz (who, despite being a red beret paratrooper was less “dangerous” to Ashkenazi, than Galant.  That forgery was leaked to the media and along with the issues with Galant’s house, ended his candidacy.  Once again, Gantz was the last man standing and was appointed IDF Chief of Staff.    

For the most part, Gantz has tried to steer his political ship in the middle, without creating too many waves.   He will take one side of an issue with a “but” after it.   If there were ever quiet times in Israel, he would have made a decent Prime Minister.   He understood the national emergency that was caused by October 7 – something his main opposition rival Yair Lapid didn’t and he has, up until recently, spoken strongly about the need to defeat Hamas.

But now, he has succumbed to the enormous pressure of the 5% of the country to whom all problems stem from the current Prime Minister’s voters.  That is not to say that Netanyahu has 95% support – far from it – but that for the most part the country understands that its problems are deeper than one man.  This was true before the war started and is certainly true now.  Gantz was at his peak in the polls when he was firmly involved in the fight.   He started to drop, not because of that but because his rhetoric changed and there were constant reports in the press that he was about to leave the government.   These reports may have been true or may have been placed there in order to pressure him to leave.  In either case – the thought that he was about to leave caused a sharp drop in his support.

It is not easy to be in the good graces of the radical left-wing opposition to the government since they have a take no prisoners approach.  There is no emergency big enough to justify sitting with the current government according to this group and he is now part of that way of thinking.   He will get more positive press and is being praised as someone who has “seen the light”. 

But what does the future hold for Gantz?   Where does he belong in the political scene? 

By giving into pressure from the US and from the Israeli establishment he has continued to drop in the polls.   Along with that, Yair Lapid has, according to reports, been meeting with other political figures like Avidgor Lieberman to knock Gantz down even more.   It seems they will continue to attack him as the one who “saved Bibi” even though he was the one patriot who agreed to join the government in a moment of crisis.   This was open to both Lapid and Lieberman both of whom stayed in the opposition.  Lapid decided to stand “strong” with the State Department crew while Lieberman supposedly agreed to join as long as he was a member of the War Cabinet.   Some reports are that Netanyahu didn’t want them and other reports are that Gantz vetoed his membership.

It seems to me that Gantz has blown his very excellent chance to become Prime Minister by his resignation and more importantly by the resignation speech.   He not only blamed Netanyahu for decisions he agreed with, he once again made sure to insult the people who voted for Netanyahu – many of whom supported him in the earlier polls.  Gantz now will fall into the basket with the rest of those who were the great white hope in replacing, not necessarily Netanyahu, but the right wing coalition.

One poll, taken after the resignation, has Gantz dropping to 22 seats from a high of 35 a few months ago, with Netanyahu’s Likud at 19, Lapid at 15 and Lieberman at 13.   The latter two have increased their poll numbers compared to earlier ones.  Another poll by the same group added a united non-Likud right wing party of Lieberman, Bennet, Gidon Sa’ar (ex-Likud opponent of Netanyahu) and newcomer Yossi Cohen, former head of the Mossad and ex-favorite of Netanyahu. This potential party came out as the largest party with 23 , followed by Gantz and the Likud with 18 each. If these were the true election results then the pressure from within the Likud for Netanyahu to resign would be enormous and a center-right coalition based on the new list, Likud and Gantz  - with or without Lapid, would allow a steady and strong government.

Looking ahead, logic tells us that elections will be called before the end of the current legislative session (on July 28) for the fall or winter. But logic and politics don’t always match - certainly not in Israel (and it seems not in the US either).   If elections are called and if they happen between November and January then there is a good chance that the pressure of the center-right rivals to unite would be strong enough to have them all put their egos aside.  Lieberman would probably head the list although it could be Bennet, too.   If they add some reservists to the top 30 – let’s say 6-7 for they could rocket to 30 seats or more. 

With soldiers still fighting and dying in Gaza (4 were killed yesterday) and with Gazans celebrating Gantz’s departure and speech, Gantz has betrayed the troops as he and Eizenkot (and Netanyahu for that matter) have shown that political rivals in Israel can’t manage to work together even as groups of soldiers with diverse political, religious and social views can unite under flag and country and risk their lives– in spite of their unworthy leadership. 

This seems to be an illness of the west in general where the elite can’t manage to understand anything about the people they are supposed to serve.