The Middle East- Solving Israel’s Part

The Middle East seems to be going in one direction only and that is the model that is continued wars of attrition that Iran and its proxies have been fighting against Israel for the last 11 months.   While in Gaza, Israel has the means and ability to change the game and defeat Hamas, putting that small part of the region on a different trajectory, in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Jordan, the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa the situation is on the road to disaster.   Iran has created a great model for insinuating itself into all areas of the region without having to risk its own assets.   It sends proxies to a country, encourages and funds terror and counts on the US to fear “escalation” and therefore is free of the violence it funds (except on the Afghani and Pakistani borders of course).

Gaza is the center of the world’s attention while the rest of the region is accruing more bloodshed, more destruction and more risk.  In Syria, we have Russia, Iran, the United States, and Turkey with ground troops there fighting with allies that oppose one or more of the sovereign countries fighting there.  Israel continues to rule the Syrian skies as it bombs what it seems strategically important targets at will.  Just this week a chemical weapons facility was bombed – (when was it that Obama invited the Russians in to deal with Syrian chemical weapons?).

Turkey continues to occupy parts of northern Syria and fights the Kurds even as it tries to ingratiate itself into the Arab world by inviting Abu Mazen, Egypt’s Al-Sisi for State visits  and to take the lead in anti-Israel rhetoric. Erdogan’s neo-Ottoman policies include reaching out to non-Arab Islamic countries not in the Mideast like Malaysia and Pakistan as it tries to be in the vanguard in what they hope is a trans-Islamic war against Israel.  Iran of course has been trying the same thing – while they have succeeded in bringing Israel to war they have not been successful in uniting the Moslem world behind their Shiite effort.  

Regarding  Iran, they have increased their resupply of Hezbollah and are bringing in militia fighters from all over the Moslem world into Syria via Iraq.  They are attacking both US and Israeli targets and are planning to bring a mass of fighters to the Syrian border with Israel.    There has even been a report that Iran has given Hezbollah an electro-magnetic explosive device that could disable Israel’s electricity and communication networks.  If the Iranians actually have such a weapon is an open question.    The WSJ has reported that Iraqi banks are important actors in moving money to and from Iran – my guess is that the UAE does the same thing, but that is just a guess.   In any event, this is further proof of Iranian control over Iraq.

The United States is continuing its Syrian and Iraqi  presence although it is difficult to say what the goal is.  It is being attacked on a weekly basis, if not more, and is responding with the Biden-Harris-Blinken policy of “de-escalation”. 

On to Jordan which has also been increasing its anti-Israel belligerence.   There is no monarchy more concerned with its survival than the Hashemites but King Abdullah has inherited his father’s charm.  The late King Hussien was second to no Arab leader in attacking Israel he knew when to tone it down as when he visited the families of the Israeli schoolgirls after a Jordanian soldier killed 7 of them in 1997.   In contrast, Jordanians handed out candy, Hamas style and lionized the Jordanian who just murdered 3 Israelis at the Allenby crossing.  Abdullah correctly fears an Iranian takeover of his country, but seems to attack the only power in the region capable of helping him defend himself against Iran. 

In the Horn of Africa, the Ethiopian head of the General Staff, General Birhanu Jula, called Egypt “Ethiopia’s historic enemy who have done all in their power to weaken us and to keep us from the sea”.   The current argument is existential for both countries as Ethiopia is building the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in order to secure their energy needs and Egypt (as well as Sudan) fears it will limit the water to the Nile – which has been the center of Egyptian culture, politics and economics for the last 5,000 years.   A war over the dam is not out of the question.

Regardless of the state of the war in Gaza, an agreement to end it will not bring quiet to the middle east.  It will not even bring quiet to Gaza as Hamas will go on its own killing spree against those it deems rivals for power.   But the fate of the Gazans has never been the concern of the peace-mongers, for whom the continued existence of Israel is the main issue to be dealt with.

Regardless of that what position is Israel in now and how can it be improved?     Much of that is beyond the control of Israel and that is the US election in November.    It is pretty clear that the British embargo of arms to Israel is a preview of what is to come if Harris wins.   She has stated outright that she will support Israel’s right to defend itself but as long as she continues the current policy of de-escalation and appeasement it is clear that for Harris, she means defense in the narrowest sense of the word.   I don’t for a second think she will deny Israel anti missile defenses and might even send US carriers to improve that defense as Biden has done, but it is hard to believe she will allow any offensive weaponry to be sold to Israel.  As a matter of fact this could happen right after the election as lame duck presidents like giving their successors (from the same party) presents like instituting a policy they know would not be popular.

As for Trump, no one should expect him to be as boldly pro-Israel as he was in the first term but at the least he will end the policy of appeasement and it is unlikely he will take attacks on US assets sitting down.

What should it do now to improve its position?   There are four short-term goals that Israel has to deal with  - the return of the hostages in Gaza, the destruction of Hamas there, the destruction of the Palestinian terror networks in the West Bank.

Ever since the execution of the six hostages by Hamas the Israeli government has been under intense pressure at home and abroad to arrive a deal “now, at any cost”.  This childish statement is only taken seriously because of the legitimate claims of the close family members of the hostages that the IDF and the government have not been able to do the job.   Sadly, many of the leaders who claim to be working for the sake of the hostages have a connection with the Kaplan gang and are working to depose the prime minister as opposed to return the hostages.  Ehud Barak, who is the “spiritual” if not the actual leader of this effort stated in the weeks after the war started that the protests need to hi-jack the hostage cause but will have to do it with different leaders so the people won’t make the connection.  Further, this past week he met with some 200 supporters and claimed that 3,000 people control the country and they need to convince those 3,000 to shut down the country for 3 weeks and then the government will fall. 

It is not clear who these 3,000 people are and if they include only financial and business leaders or also active army officers.   The coup he is calling for, in the middle of a war, would be judged treasonous in most countries, but not Israel.   But he has one point and that is that the current leadership has not done the job.  However, what he doesn’t seem to understand or care about is that it is the military leadership that has failed more than the political leadership.

I write this to show that there is a fifth short term goal that Israel needs to meet and that is not allowing the Ehud Barak’s of the country to destroy it from within.   That does not relieve the current government from responding to the legitimate gripes about the government and its policies and certainly does not relieve the ministers and parliamentarians of the coalition from acting and speaking in ways that don’t further divide the country.  While attacking Smutrich-Ben Gvir has become a cliché they, as senior ministers in a government at war have a responsibly to refrain from making statements that hurt the war effort by damaging the internal cohesion of the country.   The same of course goes to the Prime Minister and the Defense Minister both of whom don’t seem to be working for the same outfit. 

Let’s start with the fifth goal which is maintaining the internal cohesion of the country.  What this requires is not so much agreement on policies as agreement on goals and trust that the leadership is able to fulfill these goals.     As a vibrant democracy with nearly 10 million security, economic and social experts it is a true miracle that there is a consensus of a vast majority of the country that the four goals we spoke of above are the true goals of the war.   There is no agreement on the how and that is ok.   That is why we have leaders and that is why we have a democracy – we give them a chance to meet the goals and if they don’t they need to face the voters. 

Currently, it seems to me that a majority of the country have no faith in either the political leadership or the military leadership or both, to meet the four goals.   The only way to overcome this lack of faith is obviously to replace the leadership but the problem is, how?   Way back in April I wrote an open letter to Netanyahu and what I set out there still holds today and will, I believe, restore the confidence of the people in the major institutions of the country.   The first thing that needs to be done is to call elections for the first quarter of 2025- preferably not later than the end of January.   Next, Netanyahu has to open up the country to new leadership by announcing that he will not run again but will stay in place as Prime Minister and run the war without the suspicion that his decisions are all political.    This will allow fresh blood to enter the race, people like Naftali Bennet,  Amir Avivi or some currently unknown figure who can capture the imagination of the people.   Let everyone state their preferred policies – be it end the war and allow Hamas to continue to rule in Gaza or double down on the destruction of Hamas.   Let them tell us if they think we need a ground war in Lebanon or a negotiated settlement.  Let them tell us what they see for the next four years  and how they plan on handling Iran and its proxies.  Let them tell us how much the defense budget needs to increase and what needs to be cut out of the budget in order not to strangle the economy.    In short -let them campaign and let the people decide without the reflexive reaction to “yes Bibi, no Bibi”. 

Once elections are called and Netanyahu can no longer be accused of making decisions for political expediency and creating a dictatorship, he can do what needs to be done now – and fire IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi and Defense Minister Galant.  They have failed from before day 1 and the country (including many active and reserve officers ) has no confidence in their ability to win this war.  Haveli has been accused of covering up and not allowing investigations into the October 7 disaster and it seems that each day more information is reported that puts him in an even worse position that we all thought.   He has not hesitated to fire or reprimand junior officers and has appointed investigations that have blamed everyone except the high command.   He is a general who has no honor and cannot lead the army even if the tactics he has installed work – and they don’t.

They must be replaced as soon as possible.   In their place, someone with gravitas but without political ambition like Gabi Ashkenazi should take over as Defense Minister and he should appoint a Chief of the General Staff that had nothing to do with October 7.  It could be a retired general or one on active duty.  Their jobs will be to plan and implement new strategies for victory and to plan the long term trajectory of the IDF – its senior officers as well as its armaments.

All of these steps, taken one after the other, without delay and without hesitation will return the cohesion necessary for victory and improve the morale of the reserve officers and  soldiers doing months of reserve duty and of the regular army who have been fighting, with small breaks, for nearly a year.  Both the Prime Minister and the Defense Minister will be able to manage the war without worrying about a political election since they won’t be running.  They can make proper decisions regarding the four goals above and this is what ought to be done.

Here is what ought to be done.

In Gaza, I would like to propose a plan publicized by Giora Eiland, ex-head of the IDF’s intelligence unit and not known for his right of center politics, which would change the nature of the war there, further the goals of destroying Hamas as a military and political force there and help bring home the hostages.

Eiland’s proposal is to take northern Gaza from the Netzarim Corridor northward (about 40% of Gaza) and to give the 300,000 citizens who remain there one week to leave.  Two corridors will be open to them and they will be given food and water for their journey.  After one week the IDF will declare it a closed military zone and no food or water will enter.   Since Israel will be checking those who go south the assumption is that those who remain will be terrorists and the army will have the right to kill or capture anyone they find.  This will increase the pressure on Sinwar as he will have lost territory and increased the concentration of civilians in the southern 60% of Gaza.   After this is accomplished and the north is cleared out of terrorists, Israel can continue to other areas.  

In the meanwhile, the IDF will take charge of dispersing the humanitarian aide in the southern part of Gaza and remove Hamas from the equation.      I would add one element to this plan.  After cleansing the north of terrorists and neutralizing the tunnels there, I would propose to allow women and children to return to the north and be under the auspices of the IDF.  The separation of families will further humiliate Sinwar and Hamas and weaken their grip on power.  Humiliation is not in the Western military lexicon but is a powerful weapon in the Arab world.    

In my view, Hamas needs to be destroyed by the end of the year.  It ought to have been done by the end of 2023 but a combination of pressure from the US government and the fecklessness of the IDF General Staff and political leadership made sure that would not happen.  With the immediate change in Israeli leadership that we have proposed above, this goal can be attained.   By January 2025 Hamas should be out of power the Gaza part of the war should be, if not over, then in a situation where minimal force will be needed to maintain order. 

Moving to the West Bank, which is in a more precarious situation then you might think, Israel first has to get control of its border with Jordan.  Iran, which has been smuggling arms across the border for years continues to do it to this day.   Enough troops have to be put on the border to stop the smuggling (military people have spoken of an entire division), Jordan needs to up its game in order to catch potential smugglers and a real fence (like that separating Israel and Egypt)  needs to be built along the entire Jordan valley and eventually even down to Eilat.

While the border is being secured, Israel needs to continue its aggressive approach to the terror networks that have formed and not be afraid to destroy what needs to be destroyed. Israel has to bring in tanks and airpower in order to kill and detain all terrorists in all areas of the West Bank.  Mr. Blinken recently announced that Israel needs to change its tactics there and he is right – but not in the way he thinks.   The cities of Jenin, Tulkarm, Qalqilya, Shechem, Hebron and Ramallah cannot be allowed to become the next Gaza  and only aggressive military action will prevent that.   If Israel has to temporarily disallow Palestinian traffic on the reads, so be it. The terrorist organizations are not far from Gaza October 6 and if not stopped the disaster will dwarf October 7.   The battle to maintain dominance and restore deterrence in the West Bank is no less important than in the south and in the north. 

As for the north, that is the most difficult decision as it has been from the start of the war.  There is no doubt that the only solution to the Hezbollah presence on the border is to eliminate it.   Negotiations won’t succeed as Hezbollah and Iran feel they have the upper hand there (as does Sinwar in Gaza now) and in the world in general and the middle east in particular, those with the upper hand don’t compromise.  The only solution is military, and the only military solution is ground combat.   When the rumors spread that the IDF General Staff and the Defense Minister wanted to do the north first, it is not clear that they meant more than an accelerated air campaign.  While they said, truthfully, that Hezbollah is a bigger strategic threat than Hamas, what they meant is that they had no plan to invade Gaza and were not in the mood to fight there.  Luckily, Netanyahu (and Biden!) nixed that plan as the country would not have stood for letting Hamas off the hook and the first hostage deal would not have happened. 

Ideally, we needed to invade Lebanon in May or June when the weather was favorable.  Currently, we have about 3 months or less before the rainy season starts and no one wants to get caught in the literal mud of Lebanon.  But the real question is can the IDF fight this war while it has not finished in Gaza?  Does it have the tanks, artillery, engineering and infantry necessary?  Does it have enough drones and can it defend its troops against Hezbollah drones?   Is it ready for a battle on the Syrian front at the same time? 

I don’t have the answer because I don’t know if the IDF has been increasing its forces since October 7 and I don’t know where we stand as to tanks and other armored vehicles.    If Israel has the capabilities, it has the obligation to take the fight to Lebanon without delay as not only are 100,000 Israelis out of their homes, but their homes are being systematically destroyed.   The fact that Israel accepted the unofficial “ground rules” where Hezbollah wouldn’t kill too many of our civilians or attack us south of the Haifa-Tiberias line and we wouldn’t invade or use our artillery too freely is immoral in itself as the country has an obligation not only to protect the lives of its citizens but its property, too.   It also tells the country not to live away from the major population centers because you won’t be protected.   This hits Zionism in the gut and can’t be tolerated. 

Moral responsibilities aside for the moment, the question is does Israel have the forces necessary for a ground invasion of Lebanon?  If so, it must be done now.  If not, then sadly it will need to wait for the Spring.   The fact that Gaza was not taken care of before the end of the Winter so the north could be handled is one of the reasons why Israel needs a change in its military and political leadership.   What cannot happen is for the north to be a problem at this time next year.

Which brings us back to the middle east in general and in this, contrary to 80 years of blabber by the UN and foreign ministries worldwide – including the US State Department, solving Israel’s problems or even solving problems at the expense of Israel, will do little to bring quiet to the middle east.    Syria, Iraq and everything Iran touches will continue to percolate and explode.  Ethiopia-Egypt is just one pending disaster in Africa as Libya is slowly becoming the playground for thugs, criminals, terrorists and terrorist states.  Iran and Russia have large presences there and Egypt has obvious interests there.  Can a Chinese port be far away?

If the United States continues its retreat from the world and continues to appease enemies and handcuff allies, there is no hope for quiet in the middle east or anywhere else.

WWIII will not be fun.