The progressive left in the West is obsessed with “root causes” of all social issues so that they can change the very nature of society.
So why is it, when we speak of international relations, we insist that we deal with “proxies” and insulate the true cause of conflict from any retaliation? This notion of “proxies” allows a country or even a terrorist group to create, fund, train and command a separate group insulating it from any guilt (for an excellent piece on proxies see Tunku Varadarajan in the WSJ).
In the cold war, when the US and the Soviet Union fought for control of what we quaintly used to call the “third world” each used proxies to fight. In most cases the proxies were fighting proxies allowing the US and the USSR to pretend they were not fighting each other. In certain cases, like Vietnam and Afghanistan, the proxies fought the actual superpower. Interestingly enough, in Vietnam even the proxy - North Vietnam - had a proxy -the Viet-Kong. In 1973, Nixon and Kissinger deterred the Soviets from entering the war on the part of their proxies (Egypt and Syria) to fight America’s proxy (Israel). True enough, Israel was not a proxy in the literal sense of the word, as Israel was fighting to defend its country from unprovoked invasion but both the Soviets and the US thought of this war as a great power conflict.
Now that we are in Cold War II (crediting Niall Ferguson with this, of course) it would make sense to be sure that the US and China have as little direct military conflict as possible. There may be US weapons in Ukraine, and China is propping up the Russian economy but the chances of direct conflict between the US and China there is nearly non-existent. Both sides need their own proxies “not to lose” and neither side seems to want to do what it takes to make sure their side wins.
But none of this proxy business in Cold War II means that either China or the US can’t use its armed forces to defend itself or its allies as long as they don’t face each other. China is slowly but surely taking over the South China Sea with direct military attacks on US allies (the Philippines comes to mind).
This brings us back to “root causes”. In international relations root causes are often clear and yet we can’t always deal with them because we don’t always have the means. The “root cause” of the threat to freedom of the Seas in the Indo-Pacific is China’s desire to reunite violently with Taiwan and claim sovereignty over the entirely of the South China Sea. Destroying the Chinese navy would solve the root cause but no sane person has suggested that this is what the US and its Indo-Pacific allies should currently do. We all know that this, just like an invasion of Taiwan would radically change the global order in ways we can’t really properly predict. Almost no one suggests the US move to take out Putin and the rest of the Russian leadership even if that is the root cause of the conflict in the Ukraine since that would risk a wider conflict and a possible nuclear exchange.
In the Mideast though we have a different story altogether. There is currently one independent power that is looking to dominate the region and that is the Islamic Republic of Iran – not Iran in the sense of the country of Iran, but the non-representative regime that currently controls Iran. It, like Nazi Germany and pre-WWII imperial Japan looks to dominate the region by ethnic cleansing and genocide. Iran is not looking for a peaceful middle east where it can influence foreign governments or have its “sphere of influence). The Islamic Republic of Iran is looking to ethnically cleanse all non-Shiites in countries it controls. In Iraq, Shiite proxy militias have “disappeared” thousands of Sunni men and boys – and the Iraqi government has basically admitted they have all been killed. In Syria, most of the 200,000 civilian deaths are Sunni Moslems killed by another Iranian proxy – the Syrian army controlled by its President, Bashar Assad with the active support of Hezbollah (as well as the Russian air force and its Wagner Group).
As we move westward into Lebanon, Iran’s main proxy, Hezbollah, has caused incredible destruction to the country due to its military dominance and attempts to destroy Israel. The goal of course is not to create a Palestinian state on the West Bank and Gaza or a Lebanon “free” from Israel (that has been the case for 23 years) -but to further the Islamic Republic of Iran’s goal of a second Holocaust by killing all Jews that live in Israel.
Moving southward we know that they have trained and financed Hamas and Islamic Jihad for a number of years and it could be that Iran’s halfhearted effort at supporting them while they are being annihilated by Israel is yet another attempt to get rid of the Sunnis. By the end of the war there will be 10-15,000 fewer Sunnis and 1,500 fewer Jews – a two-fer for Genocidal Republic of Iran.
We can now move southeast to Yemen, the tip of the Arabian peninsula and a raging civil war so old that Nasser’s Egypt was bogged down there in the 1960’s. The Iranian backed Houthis are also Shiites and together they are trying to rid that country of Sunnis in an effort to challenge the Sunni Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. One of Biden-Blinken’s first moves in the administration was to “punish” the Saudis for being regressive (and becoming too close to Israel?) by withholding the arms necessary to fight the Houthis. The progressive left hates Saudi Arabia due to their regressive society – who doesn’t? The Blinken State Department gave Iran a green light to threaten the Saudi kingdom with its policy of punishing allies and appeasing enemies.
Is Iran the root cause of the current conflict in the middle-east? These “root causes” have changed over the years and there is no global consensus on it. For the US State Department, the root cause is Israeli settlements on the West Bank. Neglecting all facts on the ground, State has, since 1967 blamed Israel for the lack of progress on Middle East peace (this actually goes back to 1948 and the peace plan they proposed that Israel relinquish the Negev and Eilat since the Arabs “needed” a land bridge for their “unity”). The facts that the Palestinians have rejected every attempt at an independent state on part of historic Land of Israel is a fact that is not in sync with State’s narrative and hence, ignored.
For Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas and the Palestinian Authority the very existence of Israel is the root cause of conflict in the middle east. Of course there is no Israel in Syria and Iraq and there is no Israel is Libya or the Sudan and the violence there dwarfs the violence associated with the existence of Israel. If anything, the existence of Israel has prevented the various Arab civil wars from spreading to Jordan and the Palestinian territories. And of course there is no Israel in Iran.
For those who look at the facts on the ground it is clear that Iran is the root cause of conflict in the middle-east. They support uprisings and terrorist militias in all countries with conflict from Iraq and Syria to the Arabian peninsula and Israel. Iran is even involved in the raging war in Libya and most probably in the Sudan. Wherever there is conflict there is Iran. They have genocidal plans throughout the Mideast and carry out that genocide wherever they have the power.
Iranian proxies are attacking US forces in Iraq and Syria nearly daily. US responses have been timid for fear of “provoking Iran”. Let’s say this more clearly – the US, the major military power in the world is letting Iranian proxies attack at will because it fears an Iranian response. It is time for the US to stand up and ignore the proxy war and attack the root cause – Iran. They are the weak link in the Russia-Iran-China-North Korea axis but in time they will be the glue that holds the axis together. The non-response of the US to these attacks will show China it has nothing to fear in the South China Sea and the Indo-Pacific generally.
The west is now involved in a confrontation, hot and cold, with the new Axis. The goal is to prevent a world war of the West against this Axis and the only way to do that is though proper deterrent. The Nixon-Kissinger détente with the Soviet Union could only have been accomplished with the power of the US armed forces and desire of both parties to avoid direct confrontation. If there is a Biden led détente with China it can only succeed if China knows well that the US will use force to protect its interests.
Taking out the weak link in the Axis now, will deter the rest of the Axis from further aggression. This will also can stop the only real genocide going on the Mideast – that of Iran against all groups not Shiite – Sunni Moslems, Kurds, Christians and Jews. They have taken over the genocidal goals of ISIS without so much as a peep from the West. The Blinken State Department makes “requests” of Iran like they are its equal while making demands of its allies. The Blinken State Department is still wrapped up in the Obama era concept of a strong balance to Israel. It is almost as if the US Navy carrier groups are there to deter Israel and not Iran.
It is time to end the lie that is the “proxy” and to take out root cause – the Islamic-Genocidal Republic of Iran.
Iran is not the root cause of conflict in the Middle East.
It's not 2001, Ira. This isn't going to work anymore.