Saudi Arabia and Israel

A Fresh Look

The most interesting and the strangest of the Mideast relationships is that of Israel and Saudi Arabia.  Historically, the Saudis were the most vehemently anti-Israel of the Arab states (with the possible exception of Syria).  Israel was constantly concerned that the Saudis not get America’s most advanced technology.  For those of you who remember there was the proposed AWACs sale to the Saudis back in the Reagan administration and Israel’s virulent objection that reached a point where there was a large demonstration in Washington against the sale.

Fast forward nearly 40 years and we have a United States government trying to use the carrot of Saudi recognition of Israel so as to tempt Israel to leave Gaza and recognize a Palestinian state.  This has been the temptation for Israel at least since the signing of the Abraham Accords (done with the tacit approval of Saudi Arabia).

But what is the real relationship between Israel and Saudi Arabia?  Where do they really differ?  What do the Saudi’s really want from Israel? 

I recently listened to this presentation (it is in Hebrew, well worth watching if you understand it) from Alexander Bligh, former Israeli intelligence officer and professor and an author of numerous articles and books on Saudi Arabia and Israeli-Saudi relations.  He comes to some interesting conclusions and I would like to present them (without going through his introduction) and analyze what they mean for Israel, for the United States, for the West in general and for the global economy.   I admit from the start that without the  background material that he presents the conclusions can be a bit difficult to accept, but we will try our best.   Don’t criticize him for my limitations.

Bligh centers on Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman (MBS) and his revolutionary changes to the Saudi Kingdom as well as the ambitious construction plan called Neom in the Western Saudi dessert which would include nearly the entire coast of the Gulf of Eilat (or Aqaba, depending on where you live).   This ambitious plan includes cities, universities, scientific laboratories, hi-tech centers and a financial center, that would turn Saudi Arabia from a one product country into a full fledged economic power. 

This project, once successful and combined with their still important energy sector and their control of Moslem holy places (Mecca and Medina) would form the core of the Saudi Kingdom’s identity as the premier Moslem country in the world.

There are a few issues still outstanding though on each of these aspects of the Saudi identity and that is before we even speak of the enormity of the Neom project and the lack of freedom in the country that, to us westerners at least, is the sine qua non of economic growth.    Bligh tells of four main things that the Saudi’s can get from Israel – actually, that they need from Israel and a Palestinian state is not one of them. 

Land Route to the Mediterranean

Saudi Arabia, while it has  large coast lines on the Red Sea as well as the Persian Gulf is essentially hemmed in by two narrow straits – the Bab-al-Mandab on the way to the Red Sea (controlled now by the Houthis) and the Strait of Hormuz, which is the “exit” from the Persian Gulf and can be blockaded by Iran or another hostile entity.  The Saudi economy can be hamstrung by a blockade of the former and strangled by a blockade of the latter.    The Saudi dream is a land route to the Mediterranean and the country that can provide it is Israel.   There is currently a pipeline from the Saudi oil fields on the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Eilat and there is a pipeline from Israel’s port of Eilat to Ashkelon however the Israeli pipeline is rather small and the Saudis would love for Israel to build a bigger one where oil can be transported to Europe without needing to go through either of the two Straits.  The Saudis would also like access to port facilities on the Mediterranean, which Israel can also provide

The building of Neom would open another reason for access to the Mediterranean and Israeli air space.

Islamic Holy Sites

Saudi Arabia is the protector of Islamic holy sites.  This, more than anything else is their raison d’etre and gives them the respect of the Islamic world.  They hold the key to who can and who can’t perform the obligatory pilgrimage to Mecca (Makkah on the map) and is something the Iranians, as leaders of the Shiite heresy (to the Sunnis) would love to have.   We have written a few times of Iran’s designs on Jordan not only in order to open another front against Israel but in order to be able to take hold of Mecca and Medina. 

But there is one Islamic holy site that they don’t control and that is the Temple Mount in Jerusalem.  While under Israeli sovereignty, the Israeli-Jordanian peace treaty gives special access and control to the Hashemites of Jordan.   Now the Hashemites come from the Sharif of Mecca (or the Hejaz) – who controlled the Hejaz (that part of contemporary Saudi Arabia which houses Mecca) since the 13^th century until 1925 when Ibn Saud (or the Saudi monarchy) took over.  The last Sharif of Mecca was Hussein bin Ali – King Abdullah of Jordan’s great grandfather who was also called the “Emir of Mecca and King of the Arabs”.

In any event – the Ibn Saud’s want to complete their monopoly over Islamic holy sites and replace the Hashemites in control of the Waqf – the official religious group in control.   This too, only Israel can provide.

Hamas

According to Bligh, the Saudis need Israel to destroy Hamas so as to assure that the 2-300 thousand Palestinians who work in Saudi Arabia do not become radicalized and upset the stability of the Kingdom.   Much like King Hussein of Jordan threw the PLO out of that country and Israel who threw them out of Lebanon to Tunisia, the Saudis would love for Israel to rid the region of Hamas.

The Saudis are the status quo power, par excellence.  They are a conservative’s conservative and although fanatically Islamic and have setup madrasas to teach an extreme form of Islam (Wahhabism) they don’t want anything disturbing the ruling class in their own country.  

Great Power Relationships

This is where Bligh gets bold and interesting.   We have written in the past of the need for Israel to maintain a neutral relationship with China (Israeli Foreign Policy for the Next Century), and we also wrote that China Threatens US Dominance in the Mideast, we have been careful to state outright that Israel belongs to the West and the US will be its major ally for the foreseeable future. According to Bligh, though, the Saudis are trying to convince Israel to abandon the US and join China (Bligh does not say he thinks Israel should do this, only that Saudi Arabia thinks it should).   Bligh feels that the Saudis themselves have already given up on the US as its protector and that is the reason they signed an agreement with Iran under the “protection” of China.   As long as it is in China’s interests for Iran not to attack Saudi Arabia – then Iran won’t, according to this way of thinking.   MBS understands that this is not permanent, but like any good Western politician – he thinks that kicking the can down the block is not a bad choice.   

While the current administration seems to think that the key to peace between Saudi Arabia and Israel is a Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital, under this theory, not only do the Saudi’s not care about a Palestinian state, but the only way they can control the Temple Mount would be for Israel to maintain sovereignty there.  What is keeping the Saudi’s from an arrangement with Israel, seems to be the United States and not a Palestinian state.

Of course, Israel, as opposed to Saudi Arabia has a stake in the survival of freedom in the world and does not want to be partner to a China that is looking to spread its authoritarian ways around the world.   The large Jewish community in the United States is also a reason why Israel cannot take the Saudi’s up on a possible offer to do, as Bligh states “take Prime Minister by the hand and lead him to a meeting” with Xi.

But, if in fact Saudi Arabia no longer trusts the United States to protect it and feels that its future can best be assured by a strong Israel in concert with China, we have reached a point in history where the climate really is changing.  It is not clear if MBS and the Saudi Kingdom will have more faith in America’s desire to protect it with a different administration but even so, it seems that China, according to the Saudis, and not America, is the future.  If we are in fact in Cold War II – and personally I think we are already in a hot World War III, Saudi Arabia and their energy supplies and ready cash are not so clearly on the side of the West as they were in the past.   Their fear of Chinese Communism in spite of China’s treatment of the Uighurs does not quite reach the level of their anti-Soviet sentiment.   Is this part of MBS’s attempt to modernize?   Is it the Chinese authoritarian model that is attractive to him? 

If Bligh is correct, then the Saudis are in desperation mode if they really feel that an alliance with China is what will keep not only Iran off their backs but guarantee stability in the Kingdom.   As for Israel, it will be  in a precarious position although it might also mean that Saudi Arabia would have influence on China which would have influence on Iran.   Probably not, but it is a possibility.

But what about the implications for the US and for the global economy?   Let us assume that, in spite of the effort of the globalized elites, fossil fuels will be with us for quite some time – if only to power the private jets of the globalized elites.  We would see Chinese control of oil from Saudi Arabia and Iran (and at that point the rest of the Persian Gulf).  Russia controls their own oil and Venezuela would be under Axis influence, too.  China could be looking to buy oil in Yuan – maybe with the cash used to help develop Neom.  This would directly challenge the Dollar as the reserve currency.   It is true that the Yuan would not totally replace the USD but it would be a major challenge and force the US to look to other currencies when it makes policy and rate decisions (as all other countries now look to the USD).  The whole nature of the US economy might change.

The global economy would be changing – maybe even breaking apart.   We might start seeing two separate global economies – one based in the US and one based in China.   Things that we now take for granted in the West might no longer be. 

The West is losing allies that were once firmly in their camp.    American and French forces have now left sub-Saharan Africa and Russia, China and Iran are taking over.   Xi was just in Central Asia, a key strategic area in the world.  True enough, that was a challenge to Russia by China, but, after the betrayal of Afghanistan, who can blame those countries to look to China to balance Russian domination and not the US?   In the middle-east we are seeing the US continuing to appease and defend Iran – the main enemy of America’s two most longstanding and (so far) stable allies – Israel and Saudi Arabia.

If Bligh is correct and Saudi Arabia has already given up on the US  - one look at the map and you can easily imagine a United States Navy confined to the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans – and even there, only those areas close to the United States and Europe – and maybe Japan and Australia.  Maybe.