Israeli Foreign Policy for the next Century

Israel needs to Pivot to Asia and East Africa

It is now pretty clear that what is called “the West” no longer includes Israel.   Western Europe, what has been considered by Israeli statesmen and the public as a main ally is now officially part of the resistance to Israel.   Norway, Ireland and Spain have decided to recognize a Palestinian “state”, rewarding Hamas for the October 7 massacre.  Other nations are sure to follow. Germany announced that it is a “nation of laws” so it will follow any Hague “court” decision, moral or not.   This actually fits in well with modern German history.  No better message could be given to terrorists and potential terrorists than to tell them that after October 7, that nothing they do,  nothing they can dream of doing, can deter the “enlightened” world from supporting their cause. 

Whether this is true only when the terror is focused on Jews or also on others is hard to tell.   For the most part, the history of 20^th century terrorism has taught us that, in what has become cliché – first they come for the Jews.   Whether Norway, Ireland or Spain will have their own terrorists who learn this lesson, we can’t yet know.   Spain has two separatist groups who want independence, the Catalans and the Basques and the Irish know terrorism all too well.   As for Norway, one can imagine Moslem immigrants making demands on the government and resorting to terror or, if the settler colonialist Moslems attain control, maybe the indigenous Norwegians make their own demands backed up by terror.  

No one has asked the question what the indigenous Europeans will do if immigrant Moslems impose Sharia on the respective countries but one can’t rule out violence from either side.  Michel Houellebecq has dealt with this pretty well in his novel “Submission” where he foresees a non-violent surrender in a determinedly French style (hint: French intellectuals enjoy their multiple wives).  In any event, even if indigenous Europe dies peacefully, it is a horrible lesson learned for humanity.

But the main long-term question for Israel now is where does it belong?   Geographically on the western tip of Asia, culturally a mix of the middle east and the West and politically firmly in the Western tradition, Israel needs to get creative in its foreign policy.   The current foreign policy establishment and this includes those on the left and the right are very connected to Western Europe and enjoy the conferences and meetings in their capitals. This is understandable as throughout the cold war Israel was an unofficial member of the Western alliance and voted with it in the UN and supported the West against the Soviet Union on every turn.  Currently, the Israeli media, military and business establishment want dearly to be part o the Davos crowd, in spite of it being a club that will never accept them – or maybe, Groucho style, because it is. 

This has worked out well for Israel although that relationship started to fray in the leadup to the 1967 Six Day War.  Israel’s main arms supplier at that point, Charles de Gaulle’s France, placed an arms embargo on Israel before the war started.  The Israeli air force that destroyed the Egyptian one on the ground in a pre-emptive attack was made up of French fighters.   The US until then refused to sell fighters to Israel.  The Phantoms and F-15’s came later. Even before Israel conquered what the world now likes to refer to as “Palestinian territory” Israel’s abandonment by Western Europe started.  But the emotional connection of most Israelis – even those not of European origin- to Western Europe has been strong.   Israel has an active classical music and jazz scene and its artistic and architectural styles (sadly) follow the European avant-garde. Many Israelis have gone and go there on vacation, many move there and the sporting scene is connected as Israeli teams play in European basketball and soccer leagues.

Israel’s young though don’t have that same connection (sports and cheap vacations aside).  They didn’t back-pack through Europe and are less impressed with its culture (for good and for bad) but took their post-army trips to India, Nepal, Tibet, Vietnam, Cambodia, South America and Africa.  There is a strong connection between Israeli 20 and 30 somethings with India and Cambodia, for example – their spirituality and their nature. Even the poverty strangely enough, induces a certain connection with the local populations.  

No one knew how this generation would react to tragedy and emergency as they, like all youth around the world, are addicted to their phones and the internet and their comforts.  But October 7 removed any doubt that they would leave that all behind and make sacrifices that the same “elite” youth in the US, UK, Germany, France and Spain would never dream of making. 

Israeli 20 and 30 somethings, many of whom fought and are still fighting the war, are very disappointed in the reactions of the Western European governments.   They are angry and feel betrayed over the West’s abandonment of the country as it continues to fight evil and cruelty.  This should not be underestimated.  To those of us who have been around the block the fact that the “civilized” countries support the uncivilized is not a surprise.  We lost our belief long ago that the internet and the speed with which information travelled would have had any effect on the Nazi determination to perpetrate the Holocaust.  But October 7 was so horrendous, Israel’s youth will never forgive those who abandoned them at this moment – and front and center is Western Europe, despite the initial shows of support.

Where should Israel turn in order to forge its foreign policy for the next 50-100 years?  

Israel is not unique in the world and it faces challenges that many other countries face. Its main foreign policy challenges of course deal with the neighborhood they live in.  Specifically, Israel is surrounded by countries that either want it destroyed or would not have a problem sitting back and watching it be destroyed.   This is true even for the countries it is ostensibly at peace with – Jordan and Egypt.  Both countries signed peace treaties with Israel because their leaders – Anwar Sadat of Egypt and King Hussein of Jordan - realized that they were not going to profit from having to go to war against Israel at every turn.   Neither had the support of their people or their establishment.  Their intellectual and artistic classes are as anti-Israel as the working classes.  

Paradoxically, in Iran we have the opposite situation where the government and the leaders vow to destroy Israel while many of the people are sympathetic to the Jewish state.

Israel is also an island nation of sorts with many of the disadvantages and none of the advantages.   The advantages of being an island nation is having the sea as a potential buffer against invasion.  The disadvantages are having to import by sea or air all the goods you cannot produce yourself. Israel has a sea as a buffer only on the west and its trade with its neighbors is inconsequential. 

Israel also has enemies on all sides.  It has no border similar to US-Canada or Belgium-Netherlands and faces constant threats on all of them, even during times of non-belligerency.  The main threat comes from a combination of nuclear armed (or soon to be) Iran, which is 1,000 miles away and their proxies in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen.  No matter what agreements in the future are reached with Lebanon, Syria or the Palestinians none of these countries will be allies in any sense of the word.   While the same holds for Jordan and Egypt, as well as Saudi Arabia, at least with those countries there is a one thing they have in common – fear of Iranian hegemony.  

As the West, for some odd reason, favors the Iranian dictatorship over the Egyptian one, Egypt is cautious and needs to keep Israel around if just to deflect Iranian aggression from them.   In Iran’s dream of a Shiite middle-east, Israel, Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia are in the way.  The Saudis and the Egyptians understand this as well as Israel does and therefore this is one area where an alliance of opportunity and fear plays well.  The obsession with Palestinian statehood is more western than Arab and an Israel free of western entanglements can search for a solution more amenable to its security – and that of the Arab countries (see my A Palestinian Political Solution).

One can look to island countries like Japan or the Philippines or countries like South Korea as models and as potential diplomatic allies.

Israel also has an internal population that is hostile to the very idea of the country – being a Jewish and Democratic state.   First there are the Arab-Israelis who are citizens of Israel and who have equal rights.   Except for a few times, the last being 3 years ago, Arab-Israeli citizens have not tried to violently oppose Israeli defense policy.   This will always be a fear, no matter Israel’s relations to its Arab neighbors as long as Islam is the main influence over the populace.   Islam is theologically opposed to Israel and no amount of economic development will change that.  That being said, Moslems citizens of Israel can still be good citizens and good Moslems. The assumption that there will be mass secularization amongst Israeli Arabs as their economic state gets better has been proven wrong.  For the foreseeable future, Israeli Arabs will remain very religious and traditional and that will always mean there is an undercurrent of opposition to the very existence of Israel – the country in which they have citizenship. 

The other semi-internal population are the Palestinian Arabs that live in the West Bank and Gaza.   No matter the outcome of this war and no matter what political solution will be found, this population will always be a threat to Israel’s security.  

India, with the second largest Moslem population  (after Indonesia) has similar problems and may East African countries have similar issues with violent or potentially violent minorities who oppose the authority of the state.  This is another area where Israel can ally with countries in which they have similar problems and who are not reflexively opposed to Israel in diplomatic arenas.   The most obvious country is India, but Kenya and Ethiopia come to mind as allies of, not only opportunity and interest, but also of true friendship and cooperation as they too face constant threats of minorities within their midst.

In Europe itself one can point only to the “new Europe” as well as Greece as allies who have similar interests and similar threats.    Greece of course shares with Israel threats from Turkey. Czech Republic has a longstanding friendship with Israel and Hungary also seems to be in Israel’s favor.  Poland has gone hot and cold but as they become a frontline state against Russia, there is the potential of a long-term friendship, if not alliance.  The same with Ukraine. Poland’s history of antisemitism, as well as Ukraine’s will always be thorns in the side of any alliance, but, as France, Germany and England have shown – old hatreds can give way to current interests.   Finland is another country that understands what it means to border an enemy.

So, where does Israel stand now as the West has abandoned it?

First and foremost, for the foreseeable future, the United States will remain Israel’s main strategic ally as it has so many economic, technological and security interests in common – even if a large part of the US establishment wishes otherwise.  The still large Jewish population in the US means Israel needs to keep close ties.   The Silicon Valley connection will remain strong for the next few decades and Israel has a strong alternative energy industry including geo-thermal, solar and wind.  And then of course there is the strong connection between the non-establishments of both countries as the people of both have clear understandings of good and evil, of freedom and slavery.

Besides the strong and important alliance with the United States, Israel needs to make its own “pivot to Asia” – and Africa - and to abandon its desire to be considered European.   Western Europe is anti-israel – that is just a fact that Israel must own up to.   There is no matter of argument, propaganda or economic cooperation that will change that.   Even if the Europeans vote in less anti-Israel parties in the coming elections, the demographics of every Western European country (with the possible exception of France) means that that won’t last too long. 

Like an alcoholic, Israel must admit it has a Western Europe problem.

In this “pivot to Asia” Israel must also learn to balance its necessary and strong relationship with the United States with that of China. As one who considers China the linchpin of the current axis of Russia-Iran-China, that is a hard pill for me to swallow.  But with US defense spending on the wane, its fiscal deficits out of control and the will of its establishment to fight for itself nearly non-existent (as it doesn’t believe in itself), every small and mid-size country needs to make sure China does not consider it an enemy.  The assumption has to be that the US and China will be in either a cold war or a hot war – or some combination – over the next few decades.   In a hot war Israel must come down on the side of the United States, but during the cold war phase Israel needs to take a page out of India’s old cold war playbook and try to play both sides.   This is a hard thing to say but Israel cannot be totally dependent on a Pax-Americana that America no longer seems to want.  The failure of US  policy against the Houthis which has closed down one of Israel’s three ports – Eilat  - shows that Israel needs to keep on good terms with China.

Israel must downgrade its connections to Western Europe and send its most experienced and high profile diplomats to India, China, Kenya, Ethiopia, UAE, Japan, Vietnnam, South Korea and “new Europe”.   Israel should also consider leaving the UN or at least downgrading its UN membership and leave all UN organizations that are reflexively anti-Israel – which are essentially all of them.  Its membership in the General Assembly might still be necessary but that is not for sure either.  Any group that includes anything associated with the city Hague and anything that has “Human Rights” in its title should be abandoned.  

Its time for israel to play the long game even as it fights today’s wars.  That is true regarding its rebuild of the military as it is in the very necessary need to rebuild its diplomatic game.   It has to stop using the Mossad as its main foreign policy arm and create a foreign service worthy of its national interests.   Currently Israel’s ministry of foreign affairs has very little to no policy input and its workers are both underpaid and underused.   Part of the problem is that they are unionized and often strike at important times.  Part of it is that over the years the best and the brightest have not joined.   And part of it is that Prime Ministers, specifically but not exclusively Netanyahu, have downgraded the Foreign Minister position so as not to create a new power center that he does not control.   Even with the strongest FM’s like Shimon Peres, for example, the Ambassador to the US was always appointed by the Prime Minister and unofficially reported directly to him.   Israel needs a strong foreign policy team that can project soft power abroad.

Economics and diplomatic support need to take center stage in Israel’s new diplomatic endeavors and the best way to do that is to look for new partners and new markets.  India should be Israel’s prime ally after the US, replacing France, Germany and the UK who are no longer allies.  Israel needs to change the conversation from the “Palestinian issue” to the national interests of the target countries and it must show that allying with Israel fits their national interests.

This is a hard pill to swallow.  Israel will continue to grow only if it remains a free market country in the Western political tradition – but it can’t tie its future to those countries that want to see it disappear.   Israel needs to use its scientific, cultural and religious strengths to reach out to countries with which it can share a future – not with countries who don’t want it to have a future.