Britain originally supported the Jewish cause in Palestine with the Balfour declaration, but later moved in a different direction.
France supported Israel but later did the same.
America has supported Israel for decades but now is moving in a radically different direction.
If Trump wins the up-coming election, I believe he is a true supporter of Israel for no other reasons than that he recognizes that Israel's foreign policy interests are the same as America's and also respects Israel's achievements and competence (not because of any mysterious Zionist control, sinister Jewish influence, or desire to get votes). In his shift of focus from the Palestinians to Iran, in his indifference to the "Arab street" and to international reaction when recognizing Jerusalem as Israel's capital, and his recognition of Israel's right to the Golan Heights, Trump has shown that he knows how to recognize and follow good advice. This of course means ignoring the advice of many foreign policy and military experts, many of whom are incompetent idiots completely out of touch who have led America from defeat to defeat for the past sixty years.
His re-election - if it occurs - will give Israel four more years to consolidate their position as much as possible and maybe even permanently resolve the Iranian issue, which would strengthen their position immeasurably. But American support after that is by no means to be counted on, as we can see from the current administration.
Under ordinary circumstances and in a fair election Trump would be a "shoo-in" (which maybe comes from "sure win"). However, blatant cheating in the last election, orchestrated from the highest levels and violating or illegally altering state election laws, shows that a fair election in 2024 is by no means a certainty.
To give one example: The Constitution states that the state legislatures are to make the rules for presidential elections (Article II, Section 1, Clause 2). In Pennsylvania, a key state that Biden won, the Democrat dominated State Supreme Court illegally altered state election procedures by judicial fiat months before the election (compliant state executives made no objection). Changes such as eliminating signature requirements and postal marking requirements, and obstructions of Republican poll watchers were obviously intended only to facilitate cheating and have no other justification.
A Pennsylvania Senate hearing three weeks after the election received sworn testimony of a ballot dump that gave Biden 570,000 votes to Trump's 3,200, a ration of 99.4 to 0.6. Biden's winning margin was about 80,000.
All four of those states illegally changed election laws to facilitate cheating, and all of them went for Biden. This is being coordinated from the highest levels, and we can be sure that Democrats, who have complete contempt for law and democracy, will stop at nothing to keep Trump out of the White House.
I feel Australia may provide some guidance on relations between the US and China (I am Australian). Our largest military and strategic relationship is with the US, including a significant US installation here. Equally, our largest trading partner is China, we obviously have vastly different products (minerals) to Israel, but we manage to balance these two countries reasonably well. A few years ago our wine industry was sanctioned by China (largely due to US military relationship), however over time it has now returned. We also have Indonesia, being the largest Mulsim country by population on our doorstep, and generally have good relations, however China and Indonesia are our largest strategic threat. Australia assisted in the elections for East Timor about 20 years ago as it broke free from Indonesia. We have the benefit of being a true island and have also been had bipartisan support for very strong border control. While our countries are very different, there are perhaps some elements of the balancing act between Indonesia, US and China that Israel could examine.
I actually was thinking of Australia as an example, too. The reason I left it out is because I feel that, being part of the "anglo-sphere" it is in a different category vis. the US. and that even in a world where the US is less present - Australia (and the UK) will always be in another category. But - interesting points.
As you rightly say, we are part of the "anglo-sphere", however the last 30 years we have been moving closer to south east asia in many ways, we've had one go at breaking free of the UK, although most recently joined the AUKUS agreement (buying submarines). Our sth east Asian neighbours share the concern of the rising power of China, and I think as you say, every where in the world sees the US as diminishing. I think India is going to be the very interesting player over the coming years, economically, but also the tense relations with Pakistan and the Muslim / Hindu tensions that Modi seems to be taking a position more aligned to Israel.
Play both sides in the US/China cold war? OK, this is the first time I'm going to flat out disagree with you for two reasons:
1. China hates Israel. It's not like you really have a choice here. They didn't so much as send a condolence call after 10/7 (like Russia). Sure, they did business with you (Haifa, and elsewhere) but that was strictly dollars and cents. They're pro-Hamas. So this threat is toothless.
2. The US would not stand for it. Nor would the American Jewish community stand for it.
It's one thing to be studiedly neutral on Ukraine/Russia. There's lots of blame to go around in that since Clinton. Plus Russia is a threat to NATO but it doesn't rival the US economically. China does.
But China in its rivalry to the US? No. You're either with us or you're against us.
I'm puzzled as to why you would think this.
I totally agree that somehow Israel has to break free of the Pax Americana shackles (because Pax Americana doesn't exist anymore, and for sheer national survival) but being neutral in the US/China rivalry would be, sorry, crazy.
I would tend to agree with you on this, however, the US also plays both sides of the coin. To deny that a cold war is what the current US-China relationship is would be to deny reality. And yet - The US continues to buy cheap iphones and Nike sneakers and continues to support in so many ways, the Chinese economy AND military.
I don't remember that the US trained Soviet engineers and scientists during Cold War I. But now, the Chinese send there best and brightest to MIT, Caltech, Stanford, etc - and these same students go back and build technology for the Chinese Communist Party. When the US takes it seriously, then the rest of the world should too.
As for China's hating Israel - well - not more than the rest of the world and maybe less. The whole point of my piece is to show that Israel need not be allied with those who "love it" - but with those it can forge ties with that have shared interests.
Israel can't afford to be China's enemy unless the US assists in its defense - something that cannot be counted on.
Personally, I don't believe China will be what it thinks it will be because I still have confidence that the American people will wake up and throw out the self-destructive elites.
But that is a gamble no country can take.
In sum.... when the US take the Cold War seriously, then Israel (and the rest of the US alliance) can, too. That includes South Korea, Japan and Australia who have more to fear from being China's enemy than does Israel.
Regarding your last point about the craziness of being "neutral" between the US and China - i agree. My point is not neutrality, but not being an enemy of China either. Look at the comment above regarding Australia, for example.
China certainly can't be ignored. And the US under Biden is screwing everything up. I mean, everything.
I follow some maritime TwiXers & had to mute them because it's like subjecting oneself to a megaphone at close quarters. I check them every day & it's amazing how much damage one president can do.
Britain originally supported the Jewish cause in Palestine with the Balfour declaration, but later moved in a different direction.
France supported Israel but later did the same.
America has supported Israel for decades but now is moving in a radically different direction.
If Trump wins the up-coming election, I believe he is a true supporter of Israel for no other reasons than that he recognizes that Israel's foreign policy interests are the same as America's and also respects Israel's achievements and competence (not because of any mysterious Zionist control, sinister Jewish influence, or desire to get votes). In his shift of focus from the Palestinians to Iran, in his indifference to the "Arab street" and to international reaction when recognizing Jerusalem as Israel's capital, and his recognition of Israel's right to the Golan Heights, Trump has shown that he knows how to recognize and follow good advice. This of course means ignoring the advice of many foreign policy and military experts, many of whom are incompetent idiots completely out of touch who have led America from defeat to defeat for the past sixty years.
His re-election - if it occurs - will give Israel four more years to consolidate their position as much as possible and maybe even permanently resolve the Iranian issue, which would strengthen their position immeasurably. But American support after that is by no means to be counted on, as we can see from the current administration.
Under ordinary circumstances and in a fair election Trump would be a "shoo-in" (which maybe comes from "sure win"). However, blatant cheating in the last election, orchestrated from the highest levels and violating or illegally altering state election laws, shows that a fair election in 2024 is by no means a certainty.
To give one example: The Constitution states that the state legislatures are to make the rules for presidential elections (Article II, Section 1, Clause 2). In Pennsylvania, a key state that Biden won, the Democrat dominated State Supreme Court illegally altered state election procedures by judicial fiat months before the election (compliant state executives made no objection). Changes such as eliminating signature requirements and postal marking requirements, and obstructions of Republican poll watchers were obviously intended only to facilitate cheating and have no other justification.
A Pennsylvania Senate hearing three weeks after the election received sworn testimony of a ballot dump that gave Biden 570,000 votes to Trump's 3,200, a ration of 99.4 to 0.6. Biden's winning margin was about 80,000.
"Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton filed a lawsuit against Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in the United States Supreme Court. The four states exploited the COVID-19 pandemic to justify ignoring federal and state election laws and unlawfully enacting last-minute changes, thus skewing the results of the 2020 General Election." https://www.texasattorneygeneral.gov/news/releases/ag-paxton-sues-battleground-states-unconstitutional-changes-2020-election-laws
All four of those states illegally changed election laws to facilitate cheating, and all of them went for Biden. This is being coordinated from the highest levels, and we can be sure that Democrats, who have complete contempt for law and democracy, will stop at nothing to keep Trump out of the White House.
somebody should say this exact speech at the UN. it is very good.
I feel Australia may provide some guidance on relations between the US and China (I am Australian). Our largest military and strategic relationship is with the US, including a significant US installation here. Equally, our largest trading partner is China, we obviously have vastly different products (minerals) to Israel, but we manage to balance these two countries reasonably well. A few years ago our wine industry was sanctioned by China (largely due to US military relationship), however over time it has now returned. We also have Indonesia, being the largest Mulsim country by population on our doorstep, and generally have good relations, however China and Indonesia are our largest strategic threat. Australia assisted in the elections for East Timor about 20 years ago as it broke free from Indonesia. We have the benefit of being a true island and have also been had bipartisan support for very strong border control. While our countries are very different, there are perhaps some elements of the balancing act between Indonesia, US and China that Israel could examine.
I actually was thinking of Australia as an example, too. The reason I left it out is because I feel that, being part of the "anglo-sphere" it is in a different category vis. the US. and that even in a world where the US is less present - Australia (and the UK) will always be in another category. But - interesting points.
As you rightly say, we are part of the "anglo-sphere", however the last 30 years we have been moving closer to south east asia in many ways, we've had one go at breaking free of the UK, although most recently joined the AUKUS agreement (buying submarines). Our sth east Asian neighbours share the concern of the rising power of China, and I think as you say, every where in the world sees the US as diminishing. I think India is going to be the very interesting player over the coming years, economically, but also the tense relations with Pakistan and the Muslim / Hindu tensions that Modi seems to be taking a position more aligned to Israel.
I have to admit, I do not envy the leaders and people of souteast Asia.
It may have more "action" than the middle east soon.
Play both sides in the US/China cold war? OK, this is the first time I'm going to flat out disagree with you for two reasons:
1. China hates Israel. It's not like you really have a choice here. They didn't so much as send a condolence call after 10/7 (like Russia). Sure, they did business with you (Haifa, and elsewhere) but that was strictly dollars and cents. They're pro-Hamas. So this threat is toothless.
2. The US would not stand for it. Nor would the American Jewish community stand for it.
It's one thing to be studiedly neutral on Ukraine/Russia. There's lots of blame to go around in that since Clinton. Plus Russia is a threat to NATO but it doesn't rival the US economically. China does.
But China in its rivalry to the US? No. You're either with us or you're against us.
I'm puzzled as to why you would think this.
I totally agree that somehow Israel has to break free of the Pax Americana shackles (because Pax Americana doesn't exist anymore, and for sheer national survival) but being neutral in the US/China rivalry would be, sorry, crazy.
I would tend to agree with you on this, however, the US also plays both sides of the coin. To deny that a cold war is what the current US-China relationship is would be to deny reality. And yet - The US continues to buy cheap iphones and Nike sneakers and continues to support in so many ways, the Chinese economy AND military.
I don't remember that the US trained Soviet engineers and scientists during Cold War I. But now, the Chinese send there best and brightest to MIT, Caltech, Stanford, etc - and these same students go back and build technology for the Chinese Communist Party. When the US takes it seriously, then the rest of the world should too.
As for China's hating Israel - well - not more than the rest of the world and maybe less. The whole point of my piece is to show that Israel need not be allied with those who "love it" - but with those it can forge ties with that have shared interests.
Israel can't afford to be China's enemy unless the US assists in its defense - something that cannot be counted on.
Personally, I don't believe China will be what it thinks it will be because I still have confidence that the American people will wake up and throw out the self-destructive elites.
But that is a gamble no country can take.
In sum.... when the US take the Cold War seriously, then Israel (and the rest of the US alliance) can, too. That includes South Korea, Japan and Australia who have more to fear from being China's enemy than does Israel.
Regarding your last point about the craziness of being "neutral" between the US and China - i agree. My point is not neutrality, but not being an enemy of China either. Look at the comment above regarding Australia, for example.
Long story short, I think you're overstating Israel's leeway WRT China massively. I'll write about it on my own 'Stack at some point.
Could be - but China can't be ignored going forward unless the US steps up.
Israel has one port totally shut down because Biden won't let the US Navy do its job.
I can pretty much guarantee that if a ship filled with Chinese electric cars was on its way to Eilat, the Houthi's wouldn't dare to sink it.
China certainly can't be ignored. And the US under Biden is screwing everything up. I mean, everything.
I follow some maritime TwiXers & had to mute them because it's like subjecting oneself to a megaphone at close quarters. I check them every day & it's amazing how much damage one president can do.
Difficult times
Momentous. It will determine the fate of the human race for at least a century. I really believe that's no exaggeration.
Damn good Ira. Agree 100%.
Its funny you talk about Cyprus. Last year I jokingly told friends that Israel should buy Cyprus ... maybe its not such a bad idea.