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Phillip's avatar

The attack was downstream from Iran's foreign policy. There were no pressing geopolitical reasons for Iranian enmity towards Israel. Tehran could have repaired relationships with Jerusalem easily enough. Instead they chose conflict via a war of attrition waged by Levantine proxies. Tehran sponsored October 7. They followed this up with missile attacks from Lebanon after the attack.

To compound things, Iran wasted vast resources on the tunnels and related infrastructure in Lebanon and Syria. Had that money been spent at home Iran would have much stronger air defenses today.

Ultimately the great losers are the Obama camp in the US, as well as the UN, UK, EU and the Chinese. All of these wanted Iran as a regional hegemon. All welcomed and supported the war of attrition against Israel by the Axis of Resistance. All are frustrated by the weakness of Hamas in Gaza.

Long term, the winners are Russia, India, Azerbaijan, the Central Asian states, the Arab monarchies (except Qatar), possibly Greece and Cyprus too.

America has opportunities aplenty from the attack. Netanyahu is the only Western leader since George H. W. Bush to win anything. Washington is Netanyahu's patron. If Trump wishes to do so, Netanyahu's air campaign against Iran could figure as a foundational point for the development of a Jacksonian foreign policy that enables Washington to use regional clients as effective proxies.

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The Man’s Child's avatar

Thank you for the analysis. I believe a lot of folks are going to have to adjust or expand their perspective to be able to apprehend what is going on.

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Hutch's avatar

Trump is playing Good Cop to Israel's Bad Cop. With every wave of Israeli strikes on Iranian targets, Trump can say, "Sign here and it will all stop!"

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The Angry Demagogue's avatar

Maybe. I hope you are right. Not comvinced

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Jim McCraigh's avatar

Scripture clearly tells us that Israel will NEVER be defeated...

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