Israel has retaliated against Iran. Does it matter?

Where are we now? How to judge Israel’s attack on Iran?

If the basic facts are correct, Israel hit and/or destroyed anti-aircraft and radar facilities in Syria and Iraq and then bombed IRG air bases in Isfahan, Iran and possibly  other IRG bases..

But first … Happy Birthday Ayatollah Ai Khamenei – for your next birthday, may you live to see free, hijab-less women walking the streets of Teheran.

The Interpretations:

The Middle Eastern Interpretation

1.       Iran – The Zionist entity attacked with small drones, possibly from inside Iran and caused minimal damage.   There is no need to retaliate because we barely felt it.  We won. Case closed.

2.       Israel – In response to the unprecedented attack by Iran we showed the Iranians that we can attack anywhere in the country.  This message that we sent will deter them from further (direct) attack on Israel.  And if it doesn’t – we will send more devastating messages. We won.  Case is closed.

3.       Arab World

a.       The Iranians continue to look like fools.   This was Ayatollah Khamenei’s birthday- we hope he liked his present.

b.       The Zionists are weak, paper tigers with no power who are cowards but who also commit genocide against powerful, proud Gazans.

The Military Interpretation

1.       Iran – We are not happy that we could not detect the Israeli jets that made it all the way to our nuclear sites.   What is worse is that we suspect the drone aspect of this attack came from within the country – meaning that the Mossad is activating its agents here who are most probably Iranian citizens.

Or… it came from Iraqi Kurdistan which means we will have to strike there.

2.       Israel – We destroyed key anti-aircraft sites on the way to Iran and were able to send our F35’s there undetected.   We can degrade the IRG’s military capabilities if we want to. 

We may or may not have used inside sources to help us in this attack.

The Diplomatic Interpretation

1.       United States

a.       We knew about the attack and made sure that it would not be destructive enough to cause further escalation.     Our “allies” all over the world don’t make a move without our approving it first.

b.       We only knew about the attack only when it was underway.  We didn’t help and didn’t participate but Israel knows they can’t do anything big without our approving it – so it had to have been something small.

2.       Western Europe – Please let us go back to sleep.

3.       Iran – The Zionist entity will cease to exist in 5,4,3…..

4.       Israel – Iran poses the greatest threat to stability in the middle east but we still won’t admit to ourselves that regime change should be our goal.

Reality:

The reality is that Israel has continued to play the game it has been playing for the past 25 years and following the US and Western strategy of caution at all costs and the middle eastern strategy of create your own narrative irrespective of the facts.  In Gaza for each “round of hostilities” it would end with the government and the army guaranteeing to the people that Hamas was hit so hard it won’t dare shoot rockets at us again. The result of this policy we all know.

Without an outright change and announcement by Israel that the goals of the war are either regime change in Iran or the degrading of the Islamic Republics military capabilities until it reaches a point where they are no longer a threat – any pinprick attack will be irrelevant ( see What Has Emboldened Iran?).    This is what Israel did in Gaza and Lebanon for the past decades and if this is to be the strategy with Iran then Iran will just get stronger and stronger as its strengthens its ties with Russia and China,  until they can pull off their own October 7  - but 100 times worse.   

I am not saying throw everything you have at Iran at the moment.  Rather – messages we should send in words and by paper and say that we will not rest until the Islamic Republic has been weakened or replaced. 

Israel’s actions should not be messages– but should always lead towards accomplishing the new goals.   Israel won’t be able to affect this change quickly.  That has to be the goal and that has to be the purpose of each military attack – attacks that cannot be just “in response” or “retaliatory”.   

Let Iran be scared.  Let Russia and China know that Israel is after their ally and will replace it. 

If you read Hebrew, I suggest you look at this post by an Israeli attorney and reservist in special forces in the IDF, who is very close to me.