Is the Sunni-Shiite War Heating up?

The Middle East gets more complicated.

Over the last few weeks we have seen an intensification of the Sunni-Shiite intra-Islamic religious rivalry.    Jordan has been battling Iranian backed Shiite militias in northern Jordan as they try to infiltrate into the Kingdom in order to smuggle drugs and arms.   The drug smuggling is meant for Jordanians and the arms to Palestinians in the West Bank.   This has been going on in two separate areas, in the Busra and Salkhad area of southern Syria and at the point there the borders of Iraq, Syria and Jordan meet – in the northeast corner of Jordan.  Just this past weekend, 5 Shiites were killed and 15 captured as they tried to smuggle in weapons as well as Captagon – the go to drug for the young in parts of the Arab world.   A few weeks ago, the Jordanian air force attacked positions in the Busra area after cross border raids by Shiite militias.

Last week of course there was the double suicide bombing during the memorial for Iran’s arch-terrorist Qasem Soleimani in which nearly 100 were killed.  Although Iran is still looking to blame Israel for the attack, ISIS has taken “credit” and named the two brothers who were responsible.  The ISIS statement spoke of targeting a gathering of “polytheists”  - their name for the Shiite “heresy”.   Shortly after,  in spite of their desire to involve Israel in this, Iran moved to seal its borders with both Afghanistan and Pakistan – both home to radical and violent Sunni organizations.   The Iranian Foreign Minister even spoke of building a wall along the two borders (which is about as long as the US-Mexican border is).  Back in September the Taliban threatened Iran after a disagreement and firefight between Taliban and Iranian soldiers over water rights.  Back in May of 2023 Taliban even stated they will “conquer Iran” over the issue.

In Islamabad, Pakistan on January 6 Masoodur Rehman Usmani of the radical Sunni organization Sipah-e-Sahaba (later named Sunni Ulema Council since they were outlawed in Pakistan) was assassinated – reportedly by Iranian agents.  This organization is known for its killing thousands of Shiites in Pakistan over the years.

We haven’t even discussed the never ending civil war in Yemen (see: Houthis) or the Iranian-Saudi rivalry which, as we stated in an earlier piece (Iran’s Global War) will be a showdown over Mecca.  It is my opinion that the Islamic Republic of Iran wants most of all to control Islam’s holiest site with Saudi oil a secondary goal and if going through the oilfields in eastern Saudi Arabia would cause the US or their new friend China to become annoyed, taking Mecca via Jordan might be easier.  If this puts them in a position to “liberate” Jerusalem, all the better. By the time the US realizes that their Hashemite allies are in trouble, Abdullah will be on his plane to London.  None of this will happen this week or this month or even this year – but I don’t doubt this is the plan.    

Truthfully, the only Islamic powers that might be able to stop a nuclear Iran from this are Egypt and Turkey.   Ironically, the only country that could help them is a nuclear Israel.   What if Israel saves Mecca for the Sunnis? 

Yes, the middle east can give you a headache.

The ancient hatred between the Shiites and Sunnis in Islam is second only to the joint hatred of Jews.  However, as often happens in religious wars, the heretics within are considered as more dangerous than the infidels from without.    All the fanatics want to destroy Israel but so far, only the Shiite ones in Iran have the ability to even try.  The Arab and Moslem worlds have historically put aside rivalries in order to oppose Israel.  I don’t doubt that when push comes to shove, they won’t do it again.  But in the meanwhile, as long as the biggest threat to the West in general and Israel in particular is from the fundamentalist Shiites in Iran,  Israel can’t be blamed for smiling just a little.  Are there smiles in Washington, too?