Iran's Global War

The Axis Continues to Play the West

The globalization of the Israel-Iran war continues apace.  

According to Reuters, China is purchasing  oil from states which are sanctioned by the west, including over 1 million barrels a day from Iran in the first 10 months of 2023.  In October they imported nearly 1.5 million barrels a day, meaning that since the start of the Gaza war China has increased their purchase from Iran from the preceding 9 months of the year.   According to the reports, China is buying the sanctioned oil at a discount has saved it $4.2 billion allowing it to save on energy costs and Iran to fund the war.   China depends on the US for free passage of this oil from Iran, as the US Navy is still the global guarantor of freedom of the seas, so the US is subsidizing China’s flouting US sanctions.  China has been able to play both sides of the coin with Russia-Ukraine too, where on the one hand its financial institutions are careful to stay away from Western sanctions but on the other hand it profits from exports to Russia.  

While all this is going on the Iranian backed Houthis in Yemen continue to interdict shipping that passes through the Bab-el-Mandeb straits (marked in red) that connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden.  The US Navy is fighting a defensive battle against this while allowing the Houthis to continue operating unharmed from Yemen.  While there was an attack on Houthi arms storage sites, the US was quick to deny responsibility.    

What we are seeing in ‘real time’ is China taking advantage of Western sanctions to enrich itself while allowing the Iranians to wreak havoc into the middle east and international shipping.   One can be assured that no ships destined to (or from) China will be harassed by the Houthis while the US Navy is tied up playing wack-a-mole trying to force some modicum of free passage of oil and other goods.   We have reached that point where the West is deterred from not only attacking two major nuclear forces in the new Axis – China and Russia – and is even deterred from attacking the weak link in the Axis – a meanwhile non-nuclear Iran – it is also deterred from attacking Iranian proxies. 

Iran is attacking Israel from the north, northeast, southwest and southeast and is starting to control shipping into and out of the Arabian Sea.   Their allies, China and Russia look on gleefully planning their next step.  US allies like India have to wonder if their navy needs to supplement the US or to be on its own.    

Deterrent has utterly broken down in the middle east and that will spread elsewhere very quickly.   As we have stated so many times – regime change in Iran is the best deterrent not only in the middle east but in the world.   Iranian Revolutionary Guard bases and nuclear facilities can be destroyed from the air in a number of days allowing a willing Iranian public to rid themselves of the ruthless Jihadi Ayatollahs who have stolen their lives from them.  At the very least the US ought to destroy Houthi naval and air power and physically stop the illegal sale of Iranian oil to China.

In Henry Kissinger’s 1957 book “A World Restored”  wrote “Those ages which in retrospect seem most peaceful were least in search of peace.  Those whose quest for it seems unending appear least able to achieve tranquility. Whenever peace – conceived as the avoidance of war – has been the primary objective of a power … the international system has been at the mercy of the most ruthless member of the international community”.    

This is where we stand now.