Or they could retaliate just like they promised to do when Trump killed Soleimani—which is not at all. They are the blustering bully on the playground, and Israel has called their bluff.
If they attack Israel directly with missiles Israel will have to hit the source of that attack. That means they are willing to use Hezbollah and risk their destruction. I don't believe they are ready for that.
Iran has been humiliated in Syria for years as Israel has struck them repeatedly with impunity.
Notwithstanding the alarmist press reports emanating from Bloomberg & other news services, I don't see the IRGC launching an overt military strike. Look for their retribution to come in the form of an assault on a soft target like a Synagogue, Kosher establishment or Jewish educational facility.
Or Iran could falsely claim to have conducted a cyberattack that is so successful and damaging that Israel cannot publicly admit to it and, voila, another Shi’a divine “victory.”
Israel might wish to do world commerce a favor by quietly taking out the Iranian ship in the Gulf that is helping the Houthis target shipping and the U.S. Navy. That would be an interesting retaliation.
Should Iran use Hezbollah as its proxy for retaliation, the target for retaliation should be Nasrallah’s bunker - though the tell for any action by Hezbollah would be for Nasrallah to be in Iran for a “meeting” - following the leadership principle among the Axis of Resistance, “safety for me but not for thee.”
Personally, I think Iran desperately wants to avoid retaliation - hence its declaration that a Gaza ceasefire would justify calling it off. Too bad for Iran that Hamas didn’t comply, but I think that, as Hamas has murdered the bulk of the female hostages (likely to cover up their gruesome abuse of them) and probably the soldiers, they cannot agree to any further exchanges without the truth coming out.
Hamas’ last hope is for world pressure to insure its survival, so Iran is left twisting from its reckless public threats.
You may be correct that Jordan is the softest target, but Iran can’t rule out that Mossad might tip off the U.S. and Jordan whose Arab Legion might look forward to an excuse to restore order and respect for the monarchy among Jordan’s Palestinian population while rolling up most of the country’s terror cells.
Time will tell and, it’s conceivable (maybe likely) that what I just finished writing proves wrong in every respect.
Or they could retaliate just like they promised to do when Trump killed Soleimani—which is not at all. They are the blustering bully on the playground, and Israel has called their bluff.
If they attack Israel directly with missiles Israel will have to hit the source of that attack. That means they are willing to use Hezbollah and risk their destruction. I don't believe they are ready for that.
Is Iran a paper tiger? Could be. We will see.
Iran has been humiliated in Syria for years as Israel has struck them repeatedly with impunity.
Notwithstanding the alarmist press reports emanating from Bloomberg & other news services, I don't see the IRGC launching an overt military strike. Look for their retribution to come in the form of an assault on a soft target like a Synagogue, Kosher establishment or Jewish educational facility.
Or Iran could falsely claim to have conducted a cyberattack that is so successful and damaging that Israel cannot publicly admit to it and, voila, another Shi’a divine “victory.”
Israel might wish to do world commerce a favor by quietly taking out the Iranian ship in the Gulf that is helping the Houthis target shipping and the U.S. Navy. That would be an interesting retaliation.
Should Iran use Hezbollah as its proxy for retaliation, the target for retaliation should be Nasrallah’s bunker - though the tell for any action by Hezbollah would be for Nasrallah to be in Iran for a “meeting” - following the leadership principle among the Axis of Resistance, “safety for me but not for thee.”
Personally, I think Iran desperately wants to avoid retaliation - hence its declaration that a Gaza ceasefire would justify calling it off. Too bad for Iran that Hamas didn’t comply, but I think that, as Hamas has murdered the bulk of the female hostages (likely to cover up their gruesome abuse of them) and probably the soldiers, they cannot agree to any further exchanges without the truth coming out.
Hamas’ last hope is for world pressure to insure its survival, so Iran is left twisting from its reckless public threats.
You may be correct that Jordan is the softest target, but Iran can’t rule out that Mossad might tip off the U.S. and Jordan whose Arab Legion might look forward to an excuse to restore order and respect for the monarchy among Jordan’s Palestinian population while rolling up most of the country’s terror cells.
Time will tell and, it’s conceivable (maybe likely) that what I just finished writing proves wrong in every respect.
Good points all. Especially cyber.
We both agree that Iran does not necessarily to risk much at this point