Iran as an Alliance Member

By the time you read this Iran might have attacked Israel.  Or not.

For the past two weeks “intelligence sources” have predicted that Iran will attack israel in the next 24-48 hours.  They will probably be right at some point.   Hezbollah has increased the boldness of its attacks in the north but, in spite of the expert prediction that Hezbollah will attack first, these are not considered “the attack”. I am really not sure why 30 rockets to Nahariya at once is not considered a serious attack.   A little geo-political broken windows policy would not hurt.  But the experts have spoken.

What is the reason for the delay? 

We suggested that Iran was sure they could amass a pan-Islamic coalition for the attack, but that failed.   Iran is, more or less, alone in the Moslem world now.   They have tried to weaken Arab Sunni powers one time too many for them to directly support Iran against Israel.   We still believe that Iran was taken by surprise at the lack of excitement in the Moslem and Arab world for revenge on Israel for the death of Ismail Haniyeh and that is the reason for the first delay.

But what about this extended delay?   Mordecai Kaidar, the professor of Mideast Studies at Bar-Ilan University with contacts all over the Arab and Moslem world has stated that he received a call from an Iranian friend who claims that Haniyeh demanded more weapons for Hamas and that the Islamic Republic of Iran, still angry at not coordinating the time of the October 7 attack and missing a real opportunity to push Israel on its hind legs if not into the sea, is miffed at the demands coming from Hamas.  According to this unidentified friend – who, one assumes is part of the Iranian opposition to the regime, the Ayatollah hinted strongly that Haniyeh be dealt with – meaning, that there are rumors in Iran, at least amongst the opposition, that Iran itself took out the Hamas leader.

Is this true?  Can this be true?  It seems just a rumor but nothing in the Mideast can ever be ruled out.

There are many reports coming from the Arab and Iranian world. The first report, that we wrote about in the past is the Syrian attempt to have the Revolutionary Guards take over the Syrian army.   Although they have not proven to be good fighters the control of an actual army, with armor, an air-force, artillery, etc on the border with Israel is better (and since it is already armed, cheaper) than forming ragtag militias from scratch.  The Iranians, even though allied with the Alawites and Assad, don’t fully trust him.  They have worked hard ethnically cleansing the country of Sunnis, so they want to be rewarded by putting Shiites in senior military positions. 

In fact, the Iranians would love to overthrow Assad and place a true Shiite as president of Syria but there is one thing standing in their way – Russia.  There are contradictory reports regarding the Russian-Iranian relationship in Syria.  While they are one regarding the desire to rid the middle east of the United States, Russia would like their puppet Assad in power and would like to keep away from a confrontation with Israel on the Golan border.  The Iranians want to leverage Syria into yet another front against Israel.  The Syrian army along with Shiite militias in Syria and Iraq could total nearly half a million men under arms.   They may not be the best fighters but for the Iranians they are cannon fodder in an attempt to kill Israelis and possibly capture some Israeli territory – even if temporarily. 

There are even reports that the Iranians would like to try and get Russia out of Syria – but this does not seem logical as Russia and Iran have not only ideological but growing economic ties.    To contradict this report, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards have just completed the first stage in the construction of a Naval base south of Latakia, between the Syrian cities of Banyas and Jableh, with the help and under the protection of the Russian military. This will allow the Iranians to move arms to Syria and Lebanon by sea and to conduct intelligence and other operations against the US, other Western and Israeli naval vessels in the eastern Mediterranean.  We wrote recently about the Iranian presence in Cyprus and copying the Houthis Red Sea strategy in the eastern Mediterranean would be quite an accomplishment.

The Iranians seem to be patient in their strategy to destroy Israel and form a Shiite caliphate and their control of all territory from their Pakistan-Afghan border in the east to the Syrian and Lebanese Mediterranean coasts in the west will give them a large base with which to expand southward to Israel, Jordan and eventually the main prize – Mecca, in Saudi Arabia.

The question to ask now is does attacking Israel now, with a coalition of Arab and Western states opposed to them further their goals or not?   Practically speaking the answer is no – but in Mideast talk, they have painted themselves into a corner as they have made the assassination of Haniyeh into a matter of honor.  If Kaidar’s friend is correct that they have really blundered.   If not and Israel is responsible, then they had every right to expect the Moslem world to back them up – but honor works two ways and these same Sunni Arab states would love nothing more than to tarnish Iranian honor.

But there is a further question that needs to be answered and that refers to both Russia and China.   Russia is quite busy these days in their own front yard and defending Iranian or Syrian assets are not what they want to be doing right now – although they will if it furthers their goal of ridding the region of the United States.

Then there is China.   China imports a large quantity of sanctioned Iranian oil at a steep discount.   Israeli threats to destroy Iranian oil refineries would hurt China as much as the Iranian Revolutionary Guards that profit from it.  China would have to get its oil at regular market prices without taking advantage on America’s non desire to uphold its own sanctions.  Also, it is pretty clear that China would love a Harris presidency and a quieter middle east would make that easier.

What we are seeing is Iran “suffering” from the same issue that Israel has – being a junior partner in an unofficial global alliance.  It is not the destruction of their oil refineries or other damage that Israel might do to them that is deterring them as much as pressure from their Axis allies, Russia and China.

If Iran does attack massively and Israel responds even more massively Iran will have to deal with some angry allies – something they have yet to deal with as their main job, for China and Russia, has been to weaken the US and not to weaken themselves. 

Today is the 9^th day of the month of Av, in which Jews mourn the destruction of the two temples in Jerusalem as well as other tragedies that happened over the centuries like the death of Talmudic rabbis at the hands of the Romans, the victims of the Crusades, the burning of the Talmud in Paris in the 13^th century, the Holocaust and now Simchat Torah – October 7.    Many people have predicted an Iranian attack on this day as the Iranians are conscious of symbolic acts.  However, a failed attack on this day would be symbolic in ways they have never considered.

We “welcome” The Islamic Republic of Iran to the world of junior allies and symbolic acts that don’t always work as planned – may these be  routes to their extinction.