Thanks for the substantive analysis. It is difficult to imagine Iran ever getting hold of Mecca and Medina. Having lived and worked in Saudi Arabia for some time, I believe the Saudis would let the whole Gulf down in flames before they would allow that to occur. I don't know about Saudi military capacity, but surely they could buy enough of a missile system - if they have not already done so - to permanently destroy the entire Iranian oil industry in the event of an imminent Iranian takeover. It is also difficult to conceive of Israel allowing Jordan to fall under Iranian control.
One possible scenario - and I make no claim to having special insights into the future - is that a major war between Israel and Hezbollah and Iran will break out. This could provoke violent reactions of the Islamists and Europe and America, far worse than anything we have seen yet. This might leave the Europeans and the Americans so full of their own problems as to allow Israel a free hand to deal with Hezbollah and Iran permanently, and once and for all, with steps taken to make sure that Iran never again is allowed to attain any position of influence.
Historically, Israel's deadliest enemies have not prospered.
I don't know what will happen but there is no doubt that taking Mecca is Iran's plan. As for Israel or Saudi Arabia "allowing" these things to happen (taking Mecca and Jordan) - lets just say that a nuclear Iran will have a different standing than a non-nuclear one.
Can Iran do it? I don't know.
As for a possible fall of Jordan - it could happen too quickly for either Israel or the US to intervene.
I don't deny Iran's expansionist aims, and am sure that if they ever could get Mecca they would not stop there. Why not Egypt, Syria, Turkey and North Africa as well? I don't think their ambitions are merely regional.
If Iran does become a nuclear power, that complicates things immensely, but I am not sure how much good their atomic bombs would do them if their entire petroleum industry were permanently destroyed - and the Saudis might be willing to risk nuclear annihilation and consider it martyrdom for Allah if they could take down Iran with them. But I only speculate.
As to a fall of Jordan, so much depends on what sort of Israeli or American government is in power. Some sort of pre-emptive strike against Iran may yet occur. Who knows what might trigger it?
I predict only that unpredictable things will happen, and in the meantime welcome more informed updates and analyses.
Your pieces are always so info-packed it takes time for me to read them but off the top of my head, let's say Iran took over Mecca. This would shatter the Muslim world.
oh yes - this would probably cause a moslem civil war like we have never seen. The Shiites and Sunnis consider each other heretics. Shiite control when most Moslems are Sunni would never be accepted.
Thanks for the substantive analysis. It is difficult to imagine Iran ever getting hold of Mecca and Medina. Having lived and worked in Saudi Arabia for some time, I believe the Saudis would let the whole Gulf down in flames before they would allow that to occur. I don't know about Saudi military capacity, but surely they could buy enough of a missile system - if they have not already done so - to permanently destroy the entire Iranian oil industry in the event of an imminent Iranian takeover. It is also difficult to conceive of Israel allowing Jordan to fall under Iranian control.
One possible scenario - and I make no claim to having special insights into the future - is that a major war between Israel and Hezbollah and Iran will break out. This could provoke violent reactions of the Islamists and Europe and America, far worse than anything we have seen yet. This might leave the Europeans and the Americans so full of their own problems as to allow Israel a free hand to deal with Hezbollah and Iran permanently, and once and for all, with steps taken to make sure that Iran never again is allowed to attain any position of influence.
Historically, Israel's deadliest enemies have not prospered.
I don't know what will happen but there is no doubt that taking Mecca is Iran's plan. As for Israel or Saudi Arabia "allowing" these things to happen (taking Mecca and Jordan) - lets just say that a nuclear Iran will have a different standing than a non-nuclear one.
Can Iran do it? I don't know.
As for a possible fall of Jordan - it could happen too quickly for either Israel or the US to intervene.
I don't deny Iran's expansionist aims, and am sure that if they ever could get Mecca they would not stop there. Why not Egypt, Syria, Turkey and North Africa as well? I don't think their ambitions are merely regional.
If Iran does become a nuclear power, that complicates things immensely, but I am not sure how much good their atomic bombs would do them if their entire petroleum industry were permanently destroyed - and the Saudis might be willing to risk nuclear annihilation and consider it martyrdom for Allah if they could take down Iran with them. But I only speculate.
As to a fall of Jordan, so much depends on what sort of Israeli or American government is in power. Some sort of pre-emptive strike against Iran may yet occur. Who knows what might trigger it?
I predict only that unpredictable things will happen, and in the meantime welcome more informed updates and analyses.
Your pieces are always so info-packed it takes time for me to read them but off the top of my head, let's say Iran took over Mecca. This would shatter the Muslim world.
Good or bad for Israel?
To quote Henry Kissinger when asked about the Iraq-Iran War of the 1980s, "it's a pity both sides can't lose".
oh yes - this would probably cause a moslem civil war like we have never seen. The Shiites and Sunnis consider each other heretics. Shiite control when most Moslems are Sunni would never be accepted.
Strikes me that would be, well, good for Israel.... not saying I really want it. It could bring about a worldwide depression. Very bad for everyone!
Amen