Egypt on the Brink?

A Resurgent Moslem Brotherhood and Irredentist Turkey Threaten the Region

Although I have been proven wrong in my speculations many times in my life, I am embarrassed to say that I have now been proven wrong now in less than 24 hours. Just after posting yesterday’s piece and stating that the Moslem Brotherhood has been weakened in Egypt, demonstrations against Al-Sisi have started in that country by the Brotherhood. Encouraged by the success in the toppling of Assad, the Arab Winter of 2024-25 may be spreading. What started as small demonstrations have spread and the demonstrators have been tearing down signs of Al-Sisi.

The Egyptian army is not the Syrian army and they won’t just collapse, but it is not beyond the imagination if some senior officers take the side of the Brotherhood. Al-Sisi himself was appointed army Chief of Staff by the last Brotherhood president – Mohammad Morsi. There have even been reports that Al-Sisi has asked Israel to be ready to help it, if necessary. I can’t imagine what that could mean unless there are groups in Sinai that need elimination. Unless it would be to prevent some potential Egyptian army rebels from approaching Cairo. Even that would seem absurd. Maybe the Mossad?

A Moslem Brotherhood controlled Egypt and Syria would pose a threat to Israel as well as the Gulf states at least as strong as that of the Shiite-Iranian threat.

There is also heavy fighting between Fatah/PA forces in Jenin and Tulkarm and Islamic Jihad and Hamas terrorists. The Jenin refugee camp has been especially prone to conflagrations as Jihad forces have attacked PA police stations and both sides are shooting at each other as if they were Israelis. There have even been pictures of PA forces with RPG’s – which are illegal for them to have according to the Oslo accords.

And then there is Jordan, of course. They are always at risk and a quick turnaround in either Egypt or the West Bank could make King Abdullah gas up his jet. He doesn’t even need a pilot as he can fly it himself.

The US has four things it can do here:

Speak to Al-Sisi and see what the US can do to help suppress the Brotherhood.

Threaten Erdogan to stop the Brotherhood talk and pull back from his anti-semitic and anti-Arab rhetoric.

Make sure that Qatar does not further inflame the situation. Al-Jazeera, their mouthpiece is not known for their balanced reporting. Interestingly, the PA has banned Al-Jazeera in the West Bank. Qatar has money and power, and it is about time the US reigned them in.

Finally – along with Israel, finish off Iran now before forces have to be focused elsewhere and both Sunni and Shiite fanatics compete in their effort to destroy Israel and the West.

We wrote yesterday of Kissinger’s quote that “every success is a ticket to the next crisis” – it is even closer than I thought yesterday.

For Israel, the time to re-arm and focus is now. This is not time for internal squabbles in Israel. It’s time to put away all of the absurd power plays that are daily perpetrated in the country and time to laser focus on all the threats - present and potential. This is directed towards the government and the opposition, towards the leadership of the security services and mostly, yes mostly – towards the Supreme Court and the justice system who have neither protected us from the Hague nor promoted the civil liberties of Israel’s citizens but instead has worked tirelessly to divide the people and intimidate those it doesn’t like.

Where are the adults ?!