Coming Next in Israel – Part 2: Elections 2025

Netanyahu vs. Bennet? Or a Wild Card?

At some point after the Gaza deal, the government will start to unravel. The opposition will guarantee a safety net to Netanyahu to get the deal done and Ben-Gvir will leave the government or start making demands that cannot be filled. The opposition will wait until half or more of the hostages who are still alive (believed to be 60 out of the 101) are freed or if there is a delay they can blame on the government. Netanyahu will either be fooled by the polls or will face a crisis dealing with the draft of Haredi men and will call for elections. His main rival it seems will be Naftali Bennet who will face heated rhetoric from the right for his becoming prime minister under the protection of an Arab party and more than that – his long time political friendship with Yair Lapid, the former centrist who is now fighting with Yair Golan for the post-Zionist vote.

Before we get to Bennet lets discuss why Lapid, Leiberman and Gantz cannot win. Let’s all agree that there is a difference between “winning” and becoming Prime Minister. As Naftali Bennet proved about 3 years ago, you can lose terribly but with the proper political maneuvering you can still become Prime Minister. It is sort of like “covering” in sports gambling where your team can lose the game but you win the bet. What happens in the political shuk after the election is entirely unpredictable.

Lapid, once the savior of the center has moved into the radical fringe of the anti-Bibi coalition and has found himself, by plan or not, in a tense competition with Yair Golan’s new Democrat party – made up of a union of Labor and Meretz – that is intent on furthering the progressive goals that were just defeated in the US election. As for Gantz, he just doesn’t have it. He often says the “right” thing – meaning he speaks as a Zionist and as one who cares about the country. But he succumbed to the pressure of the Ehud Barak wing of the establishment and resigned from the government in the middle of the war. That is not the move of a bold leader and the people understand that. He is also seen as a toady of the Biden-Blinken clan and an architect of the small, smart army that has forced the elongated reserve duty from many tens of thousands of combat soldiers and officers.

Leiberman is the head of a political party whose base are the immigrants from the ex-Soviet Union. He was Bibi’s first chief of staff and is rumored to be of the more corrupt politicians although all investigations have been dropped. Interestingly, all the cases were closed once he became a never-Bibi’er. Being a hawk who has warned for years of Hamas in Gaza, Lieberman was the natural first member of a national unity government after October 7. He blamed the fact of Smutrich/Ben Gvir, as did Lapid, but my feeling is that he knew that to go with Bibi meant more legal troubles. Although he can be one of those who lose and yet become PM he won’t get that bulk he needs without some show of independence from the legal establishment. I wrote awhile ago that he was the natural choice for a reform Defense Minister. That could still be the case under a PM not Bibi.

Regarding Bennet, there is one thing he can do to help him win this election and that is to take a non-establishment figure as his number two – someone who is young, has experience outside the normal path to political success, who served in this war and whose character is noteworthy. In short – he needs his own JD Vance. By selecting an establishment figure as his number 2 he will signal business as usual, and the voters will be deciding between much of the same that “got us here”. He needs to have a reform list below him regarding the security services, the legal system, the economy. If he has this, he can beat Netanyahu. In short, he needs to start discussing policy and principle and stop concentrating on personality. It is difficult to look at the past few elections in Israel and see what policy differences there were between the parties.

Bennet, as talented as he is (and he is talented), has made one bad political mistake after another. He started off well, re-forming the religious Zionist party into a traditional conservative party called “The Jewish Home” (Habayit Hayehudi) that was able, like Reagan’s Republicans, to include all factions into its ranks and even expand beyond the natural religious constituency. He was able to take votes from the Likud and was able to tame the fanatics (like Smutrich) in his own party. He did this with the help of his longtime aide, Ayelet Shaked (also talented but without political wisdom). But since he reached his peak with that party and its 12 seats in 2013 his bold moves have always been seen as selfish and foolish and the public saw through them. He didn’t realize that by leaving the traditional religious-Zionist party to form a junior Likud he lost the core votes of long time religious Zionist voters.

Bennet has spent the past two years redoing and rebranding himself. Much like Netanyahu after his loss to Ehud Barak in 1999, he took a break and has been exploring what will make him a better candidate. Bennet spent more time on foreign TV than on Israeli TV during the war, but that probably worked to his advantage as he didn’t have to take sides in Israel but rather just defend Israel. He has never been a “never Bibi-er” - as a matter of fact it is Netanyahu who can’t stand Bennet rather than the other way around.

When Netanyahu returned from his self-imposed exile he realized that he had to be more of a politician than policy wonk if he wanted to rise again to the be Prime Minister. There was a short detour when he became Sharon’s Finance Minister and moved the country out of the economic disaster that Barak’s government) left. This cost him dearly in the polls as he cut subsidies (even to the Haredim) in order to get the budget back in order. He led the Likud to its lowest vote total against Olmert and Kadima.

He learned his lesson there and decided that he had to be a more spendthrift politician – especially to the Haredi sector. So, policy-wise Netanyahu’s first term was his most successful as he limited the government to 18 ministers and fought off what could have been the second intifada with the Western Wall Tunnel battles. His successor, Ehud Barak failed to prevent Arafat’s intifada and that led to his downfall. But Netanyahu today is the politician par excellence and although policy wise these last terms as PM have not been as successful, he has played the political game like no other.

But the times have changed and the country seems to want move to a period of substance. While nearly all the current politicians and media personalities thrive on division and personality, the mass of people are moving ahead.

Which brings us back to Bennet. Has he learned his lessons and if so, what kind of Prime Minister will he be? If he has learned the political game better he should win, taking votes from Lapid, Gantz and the Likud. But he will have to run on policy and on contrition for his past “sins” and not follow Netanyahu’s cynical populism.

But what the country really needs, and which brings me to a prediction that might not take place in 2025 but in the election after that, which could come shortly after and that would be the “change” election. While Bennet is young enough to be a “change” candidate, it will be difficult to pull off without a reform list under him including, as we said, a fresh face as number 2 who can be seen as an heir apparent as well as real reform policies. But I don’t see him, or any current politician grooming his successor. It is just too un-Israeli. Just speak to all the Labor young guards hoping to push our Shimon Peres and all the ex-Likud bigwigs in the political graveyard.

This is the wild card – a new party (which I usually oppose but now think is a necessity) with a fresh leader and members of the list who include those with the experience and moral character to lead the country to the future. I am convinced it will happen – the sooner the better.

Part 3 is next: Israel’s Future