Can the U.S. Still Deter?

WWIII Does not Have to Be

Now that the Iranians are officially involved in the “regional” war in the middle east as they attacked shipping off the coast of India with an armed drone, it is about time that Biden-Blinken finally admit that they are now very close to being involved in a world war against the Russia-Iran-China-North Korea Axis.   This is a war that can still be limited if the West in general and the US in particular do what needs to be done to deter the Axis from further battles.  We wrote early on (Preventing WWIII part 1 and part 2) that this was a 1936 moment where the French and British could have responded to Germany’s militarization of the Rhineland by stopping it – this would have probably led to the overthrow of Hitler and his Nazi government.   We are slowly reaching a 1938 moment where Biden-Blinken and Co. are pushing Israel to wind up its Gaza war with Hamas still in place and to let Hezbollah alone to fight another day, getting bored with Ukraine and pretending that US allies in the South China Sea are not on their own against China.

Currently, the US has the ability and the forces in place to return the Red Sea to its status as a free waterway by destroying the miniscule Houthi naval and air forces and by destroying their long range missiles.    Not only that, but the US Air Force and Navy together can destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities and main Iranian Revolutionary Guard (IRG) bases which will most probably lead to an overthrow of the Islamic Republic and a return of Iran to the community of civilized states.  Regime change in Iran does not need US troops on the ground as the Iranian military itself will help in the coup.   The IRG is to Iran what the SS was to Nazi Germany. 

Once Iran is not longer an Islamic Revolutionary government it will no longer fund and train Hamas, Hezbollah, Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria,  the Houthis in Yemen and other terrorist and drug running operations it supports globally – including in Latin America.   Once there is no IRG there are no suicide drones being used on Ukraine and no Russian jets being sold to Iran.  There will be no Chinese purchase of cheap sanctioned oil.  Iran is the link that holds this Axis together but it is also the weakest link.   We are still not yet in 1938 but the moment they detonate a nuclear device we are already past 1939.

If US deterrence doesn’t resume quickly – meaning in days or weeks at the most, then historians will look back and write about these days as phase 3 of WWIII.

If there is no robust Western deterrence Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 will certainly be seen as the opening battle in the first world war of the 21^st century and the Hamas-Iran-Israel conflict as phase 2.   

In phase 1 the West had an opportunity to defeat a surprisingly weak and ill-prepared Russian military with proper arming of the Ukrainian army (one could make the argument that proper deterrence could have prevented the Russian invasion altogether).  The piecemeal armament strategy forced Ukraine to stop its offensive short as winter approached and allowed the Russians to re-arm and dig in its forces.   They also were able to avoid what the West assumed were devastating sanctions with help from Iran and China.   After the failed Ukrainian offensive this past summer, European inability to do their part and the US lack of consensus on Ukraine policy due to a failure of leadership of the Biden administration and the isolationist wings of the Republican and Democratic parties, Ukraine is in a precarious situation.   A standstill in Ukraine seems to be now a best-case scenario but that very well could lead to Ukraine being forced back into the Russian camp.  That move would surely put the Baltic countries of Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia at risk as well as Moldova (Belarus is already there).  Poland Slovakia, Hungary and Romania would then be the front-line NATO states facing the Russians.

The middle eastern phase has now this has expanded to the seas where the Houthis in Yemen and the Iranians are thwarting global shipping in the Persian Gulf and the Arabian and Red Seas and Shiite militias attempt to further their control over Iraq and Syria and now Jordan and open another front against Israel across the Golan Heights and, if they are successful from Jordan itself. 

Just last week the Jordanian air force bombed Hezbollah supported positions in the southern Syrian city of Al Suwayda, after a 14  hour battle in which they thwarted Shiite militias who crossed the border in an attempt to smuggle drugs and arms into Jordan to setup bases to cause unrest in Jordan and attack Israel from its territory.   Jordan also shot down an armed drone destined for Israel as it surely knows that it is israel that stands in the way of an overthrow of the Hashemite Kingdom – much as it was in 1970.  AS we know – Iranian backed proxies do not give up because of one defeat.

Without US deterrence the ”what if?” question will become a  “when?”.  The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan is a shaky regime which knows how to survive when it has to, even when it meant supporting Saddam Hussein in Iraq.  When facing a choice of being a vassal of Iran or a historical footnote as a British colonial creation it will choose vassalhood.  The Iranian Shiite control will extend from Iran through Iraq and Syria, south to Jordan and it will have direct access to Palestinian terrorists on the West Bank, threatening Israel as never before.   And if that Iran is nuclear, the game changes globally.  Imagine Iranian control of Jordan with a direct route to Mecca (Makkah) and Madinah  - Islam’s holiest cities – as well as to Jerusalem, its third holiest city.  It will dominate the Islamic world as never before.  A nuclear Iran will force Saudi Arabia to rethink its ties to the US and the West as it will have no choice but to turn to China to save its Ibn Saud regime (also a colonialist UK creation) from annihilation.  The moderate Sunni states from Egypt to Morocco will also rethink their strategy.  At a minimum this will cause nuclear proliferation throughout the Mediterranean. 

China will be what stands between the survival of these states and their disappearance as they will be seen as the only power that can influence a radical revolutionary Islamic Iran.  We all know the price China will demand of the Ibn Sauds to save them from martyrdom – ridding the Persian Gulf of the US.  Israel too, if it can survive, will also have to look towards China for survival.

Iran already controls shipping in various key points in the region.   They recently sent a drone to attack a ship off the Indian coast, near Veraval and their Houthi proxies control the Bab al-Mandab Strait that connects the Guld of Aden with the Red Sea as well as shipping in most of the Arabian Sea.   In the Persian Guld and the Gulf of Oman, Iran harasses not only civilian shipping but even ships of the US Navy – all without fear of retaliation.

Then there is the Indo-Pacific where, in a recent article in the Wall Street Journal, Walter Russell Mead writes about what is happening between the Philippines and China in Philippine sovereign waters, where  “Philippine fishing boats still attempt to fish in these troubled waters, but Chinese maritime militia and coast-guard vessels harass and obstruct them, deploying inflatable boats, buoys and a ‘long-range acoustic device’ that temporarily incapacitate(s) Philippine crew members”.  Philippine president Marcos has met with Xi but these meetings have been “disappointing” and “evasive”.  The US has not been helpful to the Philippines.

Moving to the Western Hemisphere both Chinese and Iranian influence in Central and South America are increasing as American influence wanes.  Venezuela is moving to annex parts of Guiana and the US-Mexican border is close to being a battlefield.   In addition to the illegal immigrants crossing at will, the drug trade – sponsored in part by China (revenge for the Opium Wars?) is destroying America’s great cities.     

Regime change in Iran will take the middle east off the table.   Stopping Russian aggression in Ukraine will relieve pressure in Central Asia and the Mideast.   Coming to the aide of the Philippines will check China.  Any “realist” worth his dime will understand that the US cannot withdraw beyond the International Date Line and still expect US interests to be protected.    This is especially true when it can’t even rest on the Monroe Doctrine in the Western Hemisphere.   Chinese and Russian naval vessels roam the coast of Alaska and are challenging the US in the Arctic and we have already mentioned Central and South America.

WWIII does not have to be.  The realists and isolationists can pretend that small, free countries don’t matter, but one look at the map will show you that they do.   The progressive Left can pretend that the West is the source of all evil and its demise is good for humankind, but by the time they realize the stupidity of their views, they will no longer be around.

Just look at a map where the US is no longer at the center of the world.