Preventing WWIII

This is a 1936 Moment

The wonderful historian and public intellectual Niall Ferguson has aptly called the current US-China relationship at “Cold War II” and the current debate in the punditry is if the Israel-Hamas war lead to a WWIII.    But what if we are already in WWIII?   While Russia and the rest of the world did not expect the war in Ukraine to still be fought nearly three years later, the Russia-Ukraine war is now clearly a part of the fight of the West vs the new Axis – Russia/Iran/China/North Korea. But it was the Hamas attack of Israel on October 7 and the response of the Axis and its allies that have more clearly established the battle lines.

We have Russian and Iranian weaponry vs. American and Israeli weaponry.   The Russians and the Iranians are using what we so quaintly call “proxies” for a plausible (un)deniability, sheltering them from retaliation.   Iran has its various Shiite militias, with Hezbollah being the strongest and most lethal.   Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIF) are the Sunni useful idiots  helping the Shiite empire to destroy their Sunni cousins by dying for the cause.    The Shiite militias formed and fighting in Iraq and Syria along with the Houthis in Yemen round out Iran’s ability to pretend it is not fighting while creating a genocide of Sunnis in Syria and Iraq and Jews in Israel.  On the Russian side we have of course the infamous Wagner Group which in its racist undertaking is taking over and subjugating sub-Saharan Africa in its run to control minerals, gold and diamonds. They are  now helping Hezbollah with weaponry and training by providing anti-aircraft weapons.   The two groups fought hand in hand saving Bashir Assad, the leader and butcher of Syria, to stay in power so they already have close ties. Wagner is Russia and Russia is Wagner.  Hezbollah is Iran and Iran is Hezbollah. The quicker we understand this the better off we will be.

We don’t have any details on Chinese or North Korean weaponry being used by Hamas or Hezbollah, but that might just be a timing issue.   China has already decided not to report Hamas atrocities to its people in its official Chinese language news service and are eliminating Israel from its maps.  It only reports Israeli’s response and has taken a clear stance supporting its ally, Iran.   Will they learn from their Axis allies and also form proxies in Asia to destabilize countries like the Philippines or Vietnam while being immune to retaliation?   They don’t need to conquer or even blockade Taiwan if they can destabilize their neighbors while still selling the West all that it wants to buy and inundate our youth via Tik-Tok propaganda.

Japan has realized what this war is about, and is supporting Israel like it never has.  Being totally dependent upon the Mideast for its oil, Japan has never been a close friend of Israel.   But they have now condemned the Hamas attack while refusing the criticize Israel’s massive response.   The Japanese understand well that an Israeli defeat can lead to Chinese dominance in the Indo-Pacific.

Back to the Mideast  - it seems we always go back to the Mideast. 

Iranian backed Hamas and PIJ launched a brutal attack on Israel.

The Iranian backed Houthis in Yemen declared war on Israel and launched cruise missiles and drones in their opening attack.

Iranian backed and financed Shiite militias are moving to Syria and Lebanon hoping to open two new fronts against Israel.

Iranian backed and financed Hezbollah is attacking from the north in what, for some reason, we are not yet considering a war.

And Iran itself is feeling safe from attack from Israel or the US/West since “only” its proxies are fighting.

This is the remilitarization of the Rhineland of 1936 and a Western betrayal of Israel by hamstringing the IDF by allowing gasoline into Gaza or by a forced cease fire, will be the Munich,  1938. 

Are we in WWIII yet?  Not being an expert,  I don’t know.    But the main link tying the Axis together is Iran.  They are the most experienced in exporting terror and supporting anti-Western regimes from the Mideast to Africa to America’s doorstep – Latin America.   They support and are supported by the Castroite regimes in Cuba and Venezuela and have made deep inroads in Argentina, Brazil and now even Mexico.  They are currently nearly as great a threat to the west as is China and probably a greater threat than Russia.   A nuclear Iran would create three nuclear powers that could threaten the West as an Axis or independently.  The Obama-Biden Iranian policy has been proven a total disaster and its seems that the Biden team is finally understanding this.  But they can, in Margaret Thatcher’s famous warning to the first President Bush, “go wobbly” at any moment.

The only way to prevent a full fledged WWIII is Iranian  regime change.  This  would bring the entire Persian Gulf (and its oil) into the Western sphere of influence as China does not yet have the naval power to challenge the US.  Hezbollah would be instantly neutralized reducing the threat of war and denying the anti-Western powers another presence in the Eastern Mediterranean.  Although the Syrian butcher, Bashir Assad would still have Russia to back him, it is not clear that Russian power alone could keep him in power.  In Latin America, Iranian export of terror would stop instantly.

This does not mean that the US needs to invade Iran in order to defeat it.  A majority of the Iranian people are sick of the Islamist regime and sick of paying the price for their being ruled by terrorists.  The destruction of Iranian nuclear and missile facilities along with the destruction, by air and cruise missiles, of the main Revolutionary Guard bases will be enough.  It is not an easy task -but one within the capabilities of the US Navy and Air Force.   It is only the Revolutionary Guards that keep the terrorists in power in Iran  - the regular Iranian armed forces can be left alone to decide if they want to help overthrow the regime or stay in their barracks.  Once they see that the Guards are weakened it is a good bet they will take the side of the Iranian people and help topple the Islamist-terrorist regime.

Regime change in Iran in 2023 will change the global dynamic  just as regime change in Nazi Germany in 1936 would have saved 70 million lives in WWII.    A failure to act against the source of evil and to cut off the main link in the current Axis will just kick the can down the road – once again.   We have appeased Iran enough and if the West and the US don’t act quickly it will have to act while simultaneously fighting off a Chinese attack in the Indo-Pacific – on its own or with its very own proxies – as well as terrorist attempts coming from Latin America and Russian nuclear blackmail in Europe.

And we haven’t even spoken of the West’s moral obligation to prevent a second holocaust, which will  be the very first task of a nuclear Iranian regime.