A good discussion; the issues are complex, but with regard to China some things stand out for me. 1) The PLA has no institutional memory of live combat, very few officers or men have ever been in it. 2) The PLA is staffed largely by the sons of one-child families who depend upon them in lieu of social security. What happens -domestically, politically- when they start taking casualties? Unknown: how deep & how destructive is PLA corruption?
Still, the US has plenty of problems. DEI has sapped the military's readiness as a fighting force. (In conversation yesterday with a retired Marine commandant, he was disgusted about what they've done to his beloved Corps.) Our officer corps includes a large contingent of go-along-to-get-along careerist types. On the upside, the incoming administration looks to shake things up; how well they can do that is unknown. Questions: has the Ukraine war enabled the US to offload a lot of shelfworn or even obsolete equipment? And how long does it take to rebuild those stockpiles?
I agree with you generally, but whenever I consider China’s military, I am reminded of Stalin’s old line about quantity having a quality of its own. The PLA has a quantity advantage that they may try to exploit before the US can gear up manufacturing to counter it.
A good point and i can't disagree. However, see the comment from FR. Wah, who has spent many years in China and knows the country from the bottom up.
Also - I am not sure that in a naval and air battle, which is what Taiwan will be before it becomes a land battle, if you can use the numbers to your advantage. This will be the test of their technological prowess and seafaring skills. While numbers matter - can they land 1 million troops on Taiwan if the US, Japan and Taiwan fight like they can?
True, and while China has built a lot of new ships, they need a lot of trained crew and trying to invade Taiwan would indeed be a dogpile of technology and seamanship. I imagine the US, Taiwan and Japan would have an advantage in coordination over China and the Norks.
A good discussion; the issues are complex, but with regard to China some things stand out for me. 1) The PLA has no institutional memory of live combat, very few officers or men have ever been in it. 2) The PLA is staffed largely by the sons of one-child families who depend upon them in lieu of social security. What happens -domestically, politically- when they start taking casualties? Unknown: how deep & how destructive is PLA corruption?
Still, the US has plenty of problems. DEI has sapped the military's readiness as a fighting force. (In conversation yesterday with a retired Marine commandant, he was disgusted about what they've done to his beloved Corps.) Our officer corps includes a large contingent of go-along-to-get-along careerist types. On the upside, the incoming administration looks to shake things up; how well they can do that is unknown. Questions: has the Ukraine war enabled the US to offload a lot of shelfworn or even obsolete equipment? And how long does it take to rebuild those stockpiles?
All excellent points and thanks for your China expertise here.
I agree with you generally, but whenever I consider China’s military, I am reminded of Stalin’s old line about quantity having a quality of its own. The PLA has a quantity advantage that they may try to exploit before the US can gear up manufacturing to counter it.
A good point and i can't disagree. However, see the comment from FR. Wah, who has spent many years in China and knows the country from the bottom up.
Also - I am not sure that in a naval and air battle, which is what Taiwan will be before it becomes a land battle, if you can use the numbers to your advantage. This will be the test of their technological prowess and seafaring skills. While numbers matter - can they land 1 million troops on Taiwan if the US, Japan and Taiwan fight like they can?
True, and while China has built a lot of new ships, they need a lot of trained crew and trying to invade Taiwan would indeed be a dogpile of technology and seamanship. I imagine the US, Taiwan and Japan would have an advantage in coordination over China and the Norks.