Will Iran open a “Replacement” Front?

The Plan to Save Hezbollah and Harm Israel

Iran will not be happy if Israel destroys or even degrades Hezbollah as that is the crown jewel of their terrorist organizations and they need it for their final battle to destroy Israel and control the Middle East.   What is going on in the north of Israel is perfect for them – and for Hezbollah – as they have caused north of 60,000 Israelis to leave their homes and have burned acres and acres of land, killed civilians and soldiers and damaged military assets.    In exchange, some Shiite villages have been damaged but mostly Israel has been concentrating on taking out whatever senior Hezbollah officers it can locate.   Bad for Hezbollah, but not terrible.   Good for Iran. 

Iran and Hezbollah need a way to keep the war in the north going without having Israeli firepower destroy Hezbollah and Lebanon.  One way is to threaten Israel with Iranian vengeance.  Another way is to threaten the US if Israel attacks.    But Hezbollah has declared that if there is a cease fire in Gaza they will stop shooting n the north.   Will that bring back Israeli residents?  Will Israel also cease fire?   For the latter question my guess is yes – since the current Israeli political and military leadership are looking for a way to stop.   Will Israelis return to their homes in the north?  – hard to tell.   Who wants to be in direct range of a Hezbollah anti-tank missile, ready to fire if Hamas sends in a lone rocket from Gaza and Israel retaliates? 

But if there is a cease fire in Gaza in the form of a “hostage deal” will Iran really let the northern front be quiet?  It is hard to believe that Iran won’t take advantage of the situation to up the ante in a way that allows them to hurt Israel and to protect Hezbollah from damage.  That brings us to Syria – the old and maybe new front against Israel.  There have been rockets from Syria sent by various militia groups and Israel has persistently bombs military and supply targets, but nothing compared to what is happening along the Lebanese border.

However, The Iranian Revolutionary Guards (IRG) have 670 bases in Syria with 150,000 soldiers- mostly militia members.  There are an additional 100,000 members of the Shiite militia al-Hashad a-Shaabi who have been smuggled into Lebanon and can be returned to Syria.   There are about 100,000 Shiite militia fighters in Iraq that can also move to Syria.  The Syrian army has 170,000 regular soldiers and another 50,000 reservists.  In short there are about 500,000 armed fighters of various quality ready and willing to face off against Israel.  They have rockets, drones, small arms and in the case of the Syrian army - artillery, tanks and regular air-power.  And there is Iranian air and missile power.

By opening a front against Israel in the Golan Heights along the Syrian border, Iran can save Hezbollah to fight another day.  In any event, Syria is a mess with with Russia and Turkey occupying decent amounts of the country.    This front could start by more intense rocket and drone fire into the Golan and northern Galilee and maybe go as far south as the Jezreel Valley.   There would be another “red line” that Israel would have to establish before it used more firepower – or even ground troops.  

This might even be a key to (temporarily) ending the Syrian civil war as the one thing all the Islamist fanatics from the IRG, Iranian Shiite militias, ISIS, Al-Qaeda, Syrian Army and the various stragglers can agree on – fighting Israel. 

Will some large amount of those fighters cross the border in the Golan?  Will they try to enter Israel via Jordan?   That is a possibility although there will be resistance from Jordan.   But that may cause instability in the country as the masses and no small part of the intellectual class are pro-Hamas enough to want to help them hurt Israel.  

Israel has been holding back in the north for reasons that no one really understands.   It could be that the government doesn’t feel the IDF is ready or that the IDF doesn’t feel it is ready.  It could be if fears that Iran is already nuclear and it could be that the US has told Israel that it will not support it in a war against Hezbollah.  If the fighting turns from Lebanon to Syria and ground troops are massed on the border, will the US still pressure Israel to “de-escalate”?  Where are the “red lines” then?   Russia has been training the Syrian army in the use of drones combined with artillery – will Israel not be allowed to bomb Syrian artillery positions so as not to endanger Russian troops? 

Will this fear come from the US or from Israel?   The Israeli government or the IDF General Staff? 

The more delay and hesitation there is for Israel to use its full arsenal of weapons the harder it will be to defeat the enemy.  The enemy of course is Iran and the West does not seem all that interested in what they say or do.  The want to kick the can down the road but Israel cannot afford that anymore.  They did in with Gaza for 20 years and it led us to this moment.

The new possible Syrian front will allow Iran to keep the pressure on Israel without risking Hezbollah.  The Hezbollah declaration that it will “cease fire” once there is a declared cease fire in Gaza is a trap that Israel cannot fall into.  The debate here in Israel is about the “hostage deal” and what red lines there ought to be, but Israelis have a bad habit of seeing trees and ignoring the forest.   This is all being orchestrated by Iran (and Qatar?) and Israel and the US are falling for these maneuvers.

Iran and Russia are deeply involved in the training and arming of all the groups fighting or threatening to fight Israel.   Without relieving the Israeli leadership of blame, US policy in the middle east is creating a situation where Israel will not be able to defend itself as it will be facing the Axis on its own.   Currently Iran is stage managing a war of attrition against Israel not only militarily but also diplomatically and economically.      Israel has depended on the West to fight against that, but that is no longer the case.  Under the best of circumstances Israel can expect support from the United States and Germany amongst the major European countries and the “new Europe” states of the former Warsaw Pact.    You can add Greece and Cyprus to that.  India will support Israel but not go to bat for it.  Japan?  Maybe. 

Get ready for the next trap – a hostage deal that will hamstring Israel and not Hamas and return a limited number of hostages (but never all of them) and the opening of another front from Syria with Hezbollah re-establishing itself along the border.