Who are Iran’s Allies?

Iran’s Coalition Building Effort has Failed

Iran has many junior partners including major investments like Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen and more minor ones like the Shiite militias across Iraq and Syria.   But who are the main allies of the Islamic Republic of Iran?    There is much talk about Israel’s diplomatic isolation, its fragility due to its reliance on the United States for advanced weaponry and diplomatic cover but is Iran just as isolated.

The assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyah has enraged the Islamic Republic as they rightfully see it as an intrusion on their sovereign territory in a political as well as religious sense.  For the Islami Republic of Iran is, remember, first and foremost an Islamic Republic – the Iran part is secondary to them.  In Moslem law, Dar -al-Islam, land that is controlled by Moslems is holy and can never be changed.   An attack by the Jewish state on dar-al-Islam is an affront to their religious sensibilities.

Using that, they have attempted to form a united Islamic front to seek revenge on Israel for their dastardly deed.  The foreign ministers of both Jordan and Egypt went to Iran for talks but the Iranians were not able to convince them to join them.   While the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan would love to knock israel down a peg or two (but not too much as their regime would not last without Israel) they fear more Shiite Iran with their designs on Jordan as a gateway to Mecca and Medina.

Egypt sees itself as the protector of Islam in the world – Sunni Islam – and is not about to cooperate with an Iran whose goal is to destabilize their country.   The Egyptian military, which controls the economy of the country knows that the best way to ruin what it has built up for itself would be to “waste” all that money on war.  Buying expensive military equipment is one thing but using it against Israel (at the moment) is quite another.  

The Gulf Arab states, led by Saudi Arabia is in no mood to help the Islamists in Iran and no other Arab countries are in the position to help Iran militarily or diplomatically.   They all may make anti-Israel announcements and vote for various things at the UN, but they don’t really care enough about Hamas or Iran to risk much more than that. 

In the non-Arab Islamic world Iran is fighting a low level war on the borders of Pakistan and Afghanistan as both are virulently anti-Shiite.  That being said, Pakistan has reportedly offered to send Iran arms if Israel responds to a future Iranian attack on Israel.  But active support they are not offering.  Turkey is the other major non-Arab Islamic actor in the region and although they would love to be the liberator of Jerusalem and the foot that stomps on Israel, they don’t want to share the glory of a renewed Ottoman Empire  with a resurgent Persian Empire.   No doubt they will support Iran diplomatically and even send them some drones but an ally they are not.

So, if the Islamic world is kind of neutral regarding Iran who are Iran’s major allies?   Russia seems to be most on board as they see harm to Israel as double-harm to the United States.   A large Russian cargo jet landed in Iran filled with advanced weapons and a Russian diplomat in Australia was quoted as saying that Russia is supplying electronic warfare equipment to Iran.   There are also reports that Russia has equipment to detect stealth fighters such as the F-35 and is supplying it to Iran but I have never heard of that equipment before.  If true, Russia might want to have Iran test it out. 

While we have not heard of China supplying or selling military equipment to Iran, they do supply them with cash via the purchase of sanctioned oil. 

The delay in Iran’s “retaliation” against Israel for violating dar-al-Islam could be caused by their failure to find allies to fight with them or at least not fight against them.  Jordan, the Gulf states and even Egypt have all stated that they will shoot down any missiles that violate their airspace – nothing to do with where the rockets’ ultimate destination is.  With fighting on their eastern borders including a major explosion on oil storage facilities there, it is Iran and not Israel that is feeling isolation.  Besides Russia, China, Western universities and high society dinner parties (and the State Department) there is in fact little support for Hamas, Hezbollah or the Islamic Republic of Iran in spite of the self-righteous proclamations from the Hague, the UN and other blowhard organizations.

Iran will almost certainly attack Israel – when and with what and how strong I have no idea.  But maybe the failed Iranian attempt to establish a coalition (like Bush successfully did in Kuwait way  back when) is showing the Iranians that, for all that their bluster and rattling of Islamic sabers, they are the ones who are all alone and there is no one left anymore who will stop Israel from a massive response against them.   

I apologize about being just the least bit optimistic these days, but it looks like Israel has accidentally ended up on the top of the coalition building game.