Where to in the North, South, East and West?
The West is Still in Denial
While the world is concentrating on southern Lebanon and Israel’s bombing of Hezbollah positions there, much is going on in other parts of Lebanon and in Syria that will have an effect on the current war. And a war it is even if the US government wants you to think otherwise.
There are a few things going on that will have an influence on this war – the one in the North, South, West and East of Israel. The various powers that be might be in denial but the Israeli people understand it all too well.
Israel, in addition to its bombing of positions in Southern Lebanon has been bombing the Baalbek area that is the border between Lebanon and Syria. This is where Hezbollah stores much of their longer range weapons as well as those in reserve and those it uses in Syria itself. This area offers them versatility as it is well protected by mountains and can allow weapons to be transported either to southern Lebanon or to Syria. This is a key area and that is why Israel is targeting it so strongly now.
In Syria, in the Qalamun Mountains there are reports that Hezbollah has been replacing its own troops with other Iranian backed militias, presumably so they would be available to fight against Israel. They are also digging tunnels in order to protect fighters and equipment from Israeli attack. Qalamun is a mountainous area that borders the desert and has a clear road towards Damascus and then to Israel. Soldiers held here in reserve could theoretically go to Southern Lebanon or to the Israeli-Syrian border where the Iranian militias want to open another front in the ground war against Israel.
Hezbollah, as stated has broken the rules, too. They sent a missile towards Tel-Aviv, to the IDF intelligence base north of TA, according to them. But they are sending rockets south of the Haifa-Tiberias line and the schools have been closed in 1/3rd of the country.
Everyone in the UN is accusing Israel of inflaming the region and causing a regional war when that has been going on for over 11 months. Reuters is reporting that Iran is brokering a deal to send advanced Yakhnut (P-800 Onik) anti-ship missiles to the Houthis in order to further their stranglehold on Red Sea shipping. There does not seem to be any Security Council meeting being called to discuss this “inflammation”.
There are two ways to stop the already ongoing regional war, for Israel to surrender and disappear or to defeat Iran and their allies. The former will not happen and the latter can only happen if Israel is determined and if the West backs them up unapologetically. As for the second “if” the chances are slight to none. As for the first “if”, while I have been discouraged over the various leaks and announcements, today the Commander of the Northern Command released a statement that “we have to be very prepared for maneuver and action” using the Hebrew word “timrun” which means moving masses of ground forces in – or, invasion. This is the first that I have heard a senior IDF commander speak openly of a ground operation. Things are changing rapidly and although I have doubted recently that Israel would up the game, that seems more likely.
The war for Israel already is in four directions – the focus is on the north now, but the hostages are in the south and Iran is to the East. A Houthi drone came from the West. Russia is helping Iran, Syria and the Houthis and China says they will never abandon their Arab brothers – while they force Uighur Moslems into concentration camps.
If Netanyahu goes to the UN that means no major operation until he returns to Israel. He is scheduled to talk to the General Assembly on Friday. In general I am against his going to the UN now, unless his last line is : “we are leaving this anti-Semitic and hypocritical body. Good bye and good riddance”.
If he cancels his trip ….