Victory Now? Victory Later? Victory Never?

The Friday night Biden speech “articulating” what he said was an Israeli plan to end the war in Gaza was confusing in the least.   If it was truly the Israeli proposal then it should have been kept secret and once again Biden-Blinken have betrayed Israel.  However, the goal of the revelation of the plan – Israeli or not – was done in order to bring down the Israeli government. There is no doubt in my mind that the Biden-Blinken team is working in cahoots with the Kaplan crowd – that  organization funded probably by the same crowd that has funded the anarchy in the US over the past few years and under the spiritual (if not tactical) leadership of Ehud Barak, the ex-PM who seems to want to punish the citizens of Israel for rejecting lock, stock and barrel.  Or Biden-Blinken might be working together with current Israeli ministers and parliamentarians.  The attempt to delegitimize Israel’s democracy is front and center with this administration.

That all goes to the heart of the Israeli divide.  This “Plan” whatever it is in fact, is seen through three very different lenses in the Israeli body politic.

Doron Matza, formerly of the Shaback (General Security Services – GSS) and now part of the Israel Defense and Security Forum (Bitchonistim, in Hebrew), a conservative Israeli think tank, divides the Israeli public, into three groups.   What follows is a look at his theory.  The “big picture” outlook is his, but the interpretation is mine.   Don’t blame him for any mistakes.

The Israeli public, according to Matza is divided into three groups regarding the war.  The first group, represented by a large majority of the (non-Arab) citizens but a minority of the leading politicians,  believes we are in a consequential if not existential war and now is the time to win.  This is true regarding Hamas and Hezbollah as well as Iran.   This group believes that the IDF is strong enough to win and that the first step in victory is the permanent destruction of Hamas in Gaza.  This group believes that Hamas is not trustworthy so negotiations without being combined with massive military force is the only way to destroy Hamas and return the hostages.   Both goals have equal importance.  According to this group, any attempt to free hostages independent of military pressure will  result in the deaths of the hostages and in a victory for Hamas.

This group – the “Victory Now” group, we can call it, is make up of most, if not all of the reservists, junior combat officers and conscripted soldiers as well as a broad spectrum of the population.  The soldiers and officers believe in themselves and their comrades in arms.  If polls are correct, then about 60-70% of the population supports this.    Regarding the Knesset and the government, this is supported by a majority of the Likud MK’s and ministers as well as those to the right of them like Smutrich and Ben-Gvir.   My guess is that it is also supported by a large number of other ministers such as Chili Troper of Gantz’s party.  If it is supported by Netanyahu is an enigma.   If you go by his speeches then he is part of this.  However, if Biden was telling the truth and the plan was in fact Israeli then he has hedged his bets.   No one would be surprised by either.

The Defense Minister, Galant seems not to be in this group. Benny Gantz and Gadi Eizenkot, the two members of the War Cabinet who were not previously in the government also do not seem to be part of this group.   They may actually be leaving the government over disagreement over Israel’s ability to win. 

As for the IDF Chief of Staff, Herzi Halevi and the rest of the General Staff – that too is hard to tell.  On the one hand his past is more defeatist but on the other hand he, and they need a victory to restore their reputations – if that is at all possible.

The second group also sees the Gaza fight as part of an existential, strategic battle that Israel is fighting now on seven fronts.  However, this group does not feel that the IDF is structured, armed and built to win these wars.  For them a victory in Gaza is just tactical and it will leave israel weaker in battles on the other fronts – most notably against Hezbollah-Lebanon and Iran as well as on the global diplomatic stage.  This group sees the failure of the US Navy in stopping the Houthis as a sign that Israel has to re-arm and regroup in order to fight this regional battle on its own – and that is something that, according to them,  the IDF and the Israeli economy is not yet ready to do.

If the first group is Victory Now, this group is “Victory Later”.  They are not defeatists but are extreme pessimists about the current situation. 

The main proponent of this attitude is one of the more interesting and colorful figures in Israel – ex-General Yitzchak Brik. Brik, is 75 years old and was a tank commander in his day, rising to General.   After his retirement he was appointed to what would be called an Ombudsman in the IDF but in reality, was the main military auditor.   He spent ten years going from unit to unit, speaking to senior and junior officers as well as regular soldiers.  He examined readiness, logistics, supply, troop locations and training, officer training and just about everything else to do with combat readiness.  He gave a damning report to Defense and Prime ministers and has turned into the gadfly of the General Staff.  He was the main opponent of the “small, smart army” and has been screaming from the rooftops about the closing of 6 divisions and the decommissioning of over 2,000 tanks over the past two decades. 

In a well known incident, he brought his report to then Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman on the (non) readiness of the IDF, specifically in the north. Leiberman called in and reprimanded the then IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkott over it.  The General Staff responded to Brik’s reports by disparaging them.   Brik has also criticized the Air Force for not protecting its bases properly, for spending too much on advanced aircraft and for not creating a mobile long and short range missile force in which to attack the enemy.  He has also claimed that the IDF has to be prepared to fight Egypt – something it seems it does not have plans to do.  He has severely criticized the current Chief of Staff as well as Galant, Gantz, Eizenkot and Netanyahu.

What makes Brik interesting is that he is not a man of the right but rather and old style Laborite (of Ben-Gurion and Mapai attitudes – and an old ex-Kibbtutznik) who centered their thinking on security and their security thinking on always taking the fight to the enemy.   The right has adopted him and you will find him talking on right of center YouTube channels although he is not a supporter of much of the right-wing ideology.   Brik is a constant critic of the General Staff, mercilessly criticizing Herzi Halevi and his colleagues.  He is a firm supporter of Brigadier General Ofer Vinter, who was just released from his army service by Halevi. Vinter is not one of “the crowd” but has been known as the best tactical general in the IDF.  Since he fell out of favor with the group that seems to have a monopoly on the general staff he was never promoted to general.  In spite of his being considered the IDF’s main expert on Gaza he was ignored in this war. Brik claims that if Vinter would have been at the southern command on October 7 none of this would have happened because his soldiers were always in high readiness.  Vinter is sort of the HR McMaster or even Patton of the Israeli army.

Brik, according to himself, is the one who convinced Netanyahu to nix the IDF’s plan to attack in the north at the start of the war, while it was fighting in the south.  Brik saw this as a potential for disaster since he believes that the army needs to be re-organized and better leadership needs to be installed in order to fight on multiple fronts.  Over the years he has warned everyone that the IDF has no senior leadership and has predicted, more or less, the October7 disaster.  He has been proven right many times but often goes to extremes in his criticisms.   Many of his warnings have been proven wrong – such as the battle readiness and capabilities of the IDF on Division level and below.  But big picture – his words ought to be taken seriously.

This group does not have a large following amongst the public mostly because the public comes face to face with the officers and soldiers in the field who are fighting, dying and winning (when they are allowed).   Amongst the current political class, Avigdor Lieberman might be considered a part of the Victory Later crew – although it is not very clear from his pronouncements.  In theory, this could be what Gantz and Eizenkot are thinking although for them to say it out loud would mean that they were wrong during most of their career.

It would be interesting to hear what Naftali Bennet has to say about this as well as other hawks like the ISDF chairman Brig. General (res) Amir Avivi or ex-Mossad Chief Yossi Cohen who is about to enter the political fray.

That last group sees this war as an opportunity to overthrow the government and return the left to power.   In their view, the main challenge facing the country is not Hamas, Hezbollah or even Iran but that part of the population that has returned Netanyahu to power time and time again.  To them, the country has to be turned over to the internationalist crowd under the leadership of Ehud Barak (if not him directly, then as puppet master) – a crowd that believes that Israel needs to be a progressive European country whether the people want it or not.   They are very tied into the global money crowd – the George Soros and Davos types -  and believe they can come to an agreement with the Palestinians, Iranians and the rest of the Moslem and Arab world if they just follow the US Democratic party policy and dictates. 

This group, lets call it “Victory Never” crowd has two streams.  One, that seems to me to be the view of the Ha’aretz editorial board and their hangers on, is that Israel needs to complete a unilateral withdrawal from all of the West Bank, Gaza and Jerusalem since that is the “right” thing to do.  They understand that from a security perspective it puts Israel in a precarious situation but their feeling, it seems to me, is that the security and existence of a Jewish-Democratic State of Israel is less important than getting “justice” for the Palestinians.   This group is supported by many of the left wing intellectuals – specifically but not exclusively  - Israeli professors teaching in American universities.  They are decidedly not Zionists and have contempt for everything Jewish.

The second stream believes that they – by their will, their brains and their brawn can protect Israel no matter the borders.   They seem to believe this even after October 7.   This stream is the Ehud Barak-ex-generals Davos crowd.   In the political arena, it seems that Yair Golan, who just won the nomination to head up the Labor Party, is the main representative.    He will probably be stating this out loud because his goal is to have a strong, active but small party in the next Knesset that can make noise, if not bring change.  It seems he is trying to be the Ben-Gvir of the left and play exclusively to his (very small) base.

So here we are.  Biden-Blinken are desperate to end this war, to appease Iran and to move on to creating the next crisis.   With the Russians about make decisive gains in Ukraine, its seems that Zelensky and the Ukrainian people will be the next victims of the Biden-Blinken strategy.  And then on to the Indo-Pacific where there is much work to be done appeasing China.

In Israel though – the democratic process, messy as it is, moves on.   The next election will be between Victory Now, Victory Later and Victory Never crowds.    Let’s hope the people have a say by the end of the year and that all three groups respect the will of the voters.  Hopefully, the Victory Now and Victory Later group can over come their differences and leave the Victory Never group where they belong – in the political wilderness.