Trump in Gaza

The debates continue over the “morality” of the Trump Gaza plan in which we put our two cents in yesterday, but what of its practicality? Usually, when a grand plan such as the one President Trump outlined the other day is put into action, the main goals have to be separated from the initial description of the plan. Removing ALL Gazans from Gaza and the United States “taking it over” without military action need to be seen through the lens of the goals of the plan.

It would seem that the goals are the demilitarization of Gaza, the building up of a civil society, removal of all Hamas military and governmental structures and Hamas members and finally the hard work of rebuilding the housing and stock and infrastructure. I would add to that, a mapping and destruction of the vast tunnel network in which the IDF made admirable but not sufficient work.

Let us first analyze what we mean by Gazans. In 2022 there were approximately 2.2 million people living in Gaza of whom about 1.4 million (or 60%) were considered “refugees” as they were descendants of those who left what was to become the State of Israel in 1948. Some of these original refugees were pushed out by the nascent Israeli armed forces and some left of their own free will at the behest of the Arab armies looking to “save” them. How many of each is of no concern now as it is clear that what stands behind the Trump Gaza plan and the US’s defunding of UNRWA is the end to the designation of these descendants of the original refugees as refugees.

Most of the fighting and most of the destruction in Gaza was in Gaza City and then the eight UNRWA refugee camps as well as in Gaza city. These “camps” are Al-Bureij, Al-Maghazi, Al-Nuseirat, Mughraqa, Deir al Balah, Jabalia, Khan Yunis and Rafah – names now familiar to anyone following this war over the last 16 months.

All the residents of these eight refugee cities (let’s call them what they really are) are, by their own and the UN’s definition temporary residents of Gaza. As opposed to the Gazans who were there before 1948, which then numbered only about 80,000 and their descendants who number 800,000, these 1.4 million people are not Gazans at all. According to the logic of UNWRA and the “world community” they are refugees who have no claim to any land inside Gaza. Personally, they should have been absorbed into the population without refugee camps and their integration would have caused us to call them all Gazans – but that is not what the UN and the Arab world did – they forced their non-integration and built up and funded services in cities specifically for them and called them “refugee camps”.

This is the reality of the current situation so let us leave the 800,000 actual Gazans to the side for the moment and talk about the 1.4 million Arab residents of Gaza who have no claim to the land in which they are resident. While not a small project the money used to create and fund UNRWA along with generous contributions from the Arab League could certainly fund the relocation of these 1.4 million temporary residents of Gaza. They could be required to sign away their descendent refugee rights in return for free housing, citizenship in a new country and let’s say 5 years of health and education expenses covered.

Where would they go? Logic dictates two areas to start with –Egypt’s Sinai peninsula and the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan as President Trump has stated. As for the former most people have spoken about Egyptian Rafah, but that might be too close for comfort if the goal is to make Gaza demilitarized. I would suggest Al-Arish and the area to the west and south of it. Al-Arish is a small port city and the ex-Gazans could help build an enhanced Egyptian presence there.

Egypt will be a hard sell of course but that is also one country where Trump’s deal making and businessman persona could come in handy. Egypt is essentially a strong, wealthy army that happens to be in the same place as a poor country. Alleviating Egypt’s poverty has never really been the goal of the Egyptian ruling class – that is, the military – but enriching the military and their officers has been. Once Trump points out all the corrupt ways Egypt’s senior and junior officers can get rich out of this, they will be more apt to accept it. Building a new city or series of towns in the Sinai, surrounding Al-Arish could be very tempting to Egypt’s officer corps.

As for Jordan that is a stickier situation as King Abdullah knows that he can be fanatically pro-Palestinian as long as he keeps the local Palestinian population from growing and not challenging his kingdom. On the one hand the Hashemites have kept the radical Islamists at bey, but on the other hand they are also radically anti-Israel and anti-Semitic especially when it comes to their control of the Waqf – the Islamic body that controls the Temple Mount and the Al-Aqsa mosque. They openly encourage the violence that breaks out there from time to time. They supported Saddam during the first Gulf War (as did Arafat) and they can be counted on to oppose any compromise with Israel on nearly every issue.

Unlike Egypt, the temptation of money alone won’t be enough of a carrot to allow Abdullah to accept what might be suicide for his regime. However, there is one thing that he and his dynasty value above all others (besides remaining in power) and that is the Al-Aqsa Mosque and the Waqf that controls it. Ever since his great-grandfather was unceremoniously pushed aside by the British and replaced with the ibn Saud’s as custodians of Mecca and Medina, third place Jerusalem is all that this otherwise powerless, descendent of Mohammad has left in the Moslem world. A threat to move the Waqf to Saudi control as part of a peace deal with Israel could motivate King Abdullah to accept a few hundred thousand Gazan temporary residents.

As for available land, Jordan is a country of around 11 million people and is nearly 90,000 sq kms (35,000 sq miles), about four times the size of Israel, most of which is uninhabited. Much of it is dessert but the Gulf States and Saudi Arabia have not let the dessert stand in the way of their wealth.

The other suggestions are in Somaliland, Morocco (Western Sahara) and even Indonesia. I am not sure if these are practical or not but if they are then there are places for all the 1.4 million temporary residents of Gaza.

But oddly enough the resettlement, the emigration of Gazan temporary residents, is probably the easy part of the plan. There is still one wild card and that is Hamas and their uncanny ability to stay in power.

Israel has fought for 16 months and destroyed upwards 60% of the buildings in Gaza, some unknown percentage of the tunnel network and killed, it seems, around 50,000 people. Due to the absurd strategy of conquering, withdrawing and then raiding again, Hamas, although weakened, is still in power. How will the Trump plan deal with the getting rid of the continuous presence and strengthening of Hamas in Gaza? The US has already stated (correctly in my view) that US troops will not be involved and no Arab military force is willing, or able, to take on Hamas.

Here is a suggestion – finish the hostage deal which includes Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. Once the last hostage has been returned, invade once again. Work with the Americans and the host countries of the Gazan temporary residents and take refugee camp by refugee camp. Take one, clean it out and allow the residents to leave to their new homes. Then the next and the next and the next until all 1.4 million temporary residents of Gaza are resettled to their new countries and homes.

The US must agree that only Israel can control the humanitarian aid that goes to Gaza and must agree to arm Israel and support its every move in this effort. This will take time, but as more and more camps are emptied, Hamas will lose more and more legitimacy. These camps will be permanently leveled and cleared and made way for industrial parks or recreational areas. A new Gaza with just 800,000 people will need much less housing. A Hamas collapse is not out of the question, although one should not count on it. But if it does happen then Israel can move to quickly root out what remains of the Hamas machine. But Israel and the IDF must be indemnified ahead of time for accidents or military moves that make the UN, the EU and US Blinkonians queasy. Israel must be guaranteed that international law is not used as a weapon against it.

Whatever the plan to rid Gaza of Hams it is clear that it can only be done with massive military power. Israel was on the way to victory in the first three months of the war and then in January 2024 inexplicably changed course. Sadly, due to these disastrous decisions this will take a great sacrifice again from the regular army and reservists of the IDF but if the country is convinced that this time the goal is really to rid Gaza of Hamas and demilitarize the entire area, then I have no doubt that the country can once again be willing to be drafted to fulfill the goal.

Is this a utopian fantasy or is this a practical plan?

It all depends on the determination, will and moral courage of the United States, Israel and yes – the Arab League. The latter has never been known for moral courage so that will be the main sticking point in the attempt to turn Gaza into a civilized place to live. But none of this will happen as long as UNRWA exists and the “world” in general and the Arab League in particular continues to perpetuate the farce that is the Palestinian refugee problem.