The War in Gaza – Rafah or Bust

The Endgame is a Hamas Free Gaza

The war is Gaza has slowed down recently but it seems it is about to pick up again.  Israel withdrew most of its forces from Gaza in order to release reservists who had been in for up to four months.  This might have been a mistake since it let Hamas return to the north and setup operations there again.  Israel initially responded with raids into these areas where it would go for a few hours or a day and clean out small pockets of Hamas fighters. 

However, with a stroke of luck and a miscalculation by Hamas, Gaza has turned over the last few days into the Hospital War.  Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) were sure that the IDF would not return to the hospitals it once captured due to world pressure.  That was not an irrational assumption as comments and actions by the US as well as erstwhile allies like the UK and France would lead anyone to believe that Israel’s actions were becoming more limited by the day.

But then Israel’s luck turned. For those who remember, Shifa was Israel’s main target in the north of Gaza at the start of the war and they captured it in mid-November exposing a vast Hamas command and control center and a tunnel network that surprised everyone.   It turned out that it wasn’t that Hamas was using the hospital as a shield but rather it was a full Hamas military base with a near Potemkin Hospital as cover.   That is not 100% true of course since Shifa is a hospital in every (Mideastern) sense of the word -but the Hamas operation was so vast and so intricate it dwarfed the medical services provided by the doctors and nurses there.

Israel, via intelligence it gathered understood that al-Shifa hospital again became a terror center and since the IDF destroyed the tunnels underneath the hospital Hamas and PIJ would be found in the buildings of the large complex.  The main operation has been going on for a week as Israel first surrounded and then re-entered Shifa Hospital in Gaza City. 

So far, according to IDF sources they have killed over 170 Hamas and PIJ terrorists and captured approximately 500 more.  Amongst those captured are apparently many senior Hamas military operatives and nearly the entire senior terrorists of PIJ.   There is close and continuous fighting going on with an estimated 150 additional terrorists still holed up in the hospital complex.   There are reports this morning that there are major air and artillery attacks on some of the buildings.  It was thought that the IDF wanted to take the remaining terrorists alive, but that might not be possible.

But Shifa is not the only hospital used by Hamas as a terror center. The IDF is now surrounding another Gaza hospital.   More tunnels and 50 terrorists were found in two hospital in Khan Yunis – Al-Amal and Al-Nasr.   Other hospitals are also on the radar.

But the battle of the Hospitals has led the IDF to setup its 7^th field hospital in Gaza to treat civilians there (news not fit to print, apparently).

Currently Israel has around 7 brigades in Gaza, down from the 20 or so at its peak.   The main infantry units-  Paratroopers and Golani-  were pulled out a few weeks ago along with most reserve units.  Three main brigades – two infantry (Givati and Nachal) and one armored (the 7^th) have been operating in Gaza nearly non-stop since the ground invasion started and are supported by four others.   Those in the regular army who have been withdrawn have either been moved up north to the Lebanese border to strengthen the forces or have been undergoing special trading for the next stage in the Gaza war – Rafah.

It is not clear yet if Israel will go into Rafah but the signs are pointing that way.  After the betrayal by the Biden-Blinken Administration at the UN a WSJ headline stated that the “US Pushes to Shape Israel’s Operation in Rafah, not Stop it” – someone might have told Blinken that he has gone too far.  Or – in order to save face if Israel defies the US and goes in – he wants cover to show he is not so weak after all.  

In any event Israel has intensified air attacks in Rafah over the past two weeks, meaning it has good intelligence on the location of military assets and is softening the ground for an incursion.  It has also started to isolate parts of Rafah.   It seems apparent that this will be a slow going operation where it takes small parts of the city and surrounding area at a time, moving civilians around to avoid or reduce (civilian) casualties.   There are major risks for going into Rafah as the Israelis have been “warned” about the possible heavy civilian casualties.  Israel not only has to make sure no stray bombs hit the wrong buildings, but it has to take control of the numbers game.  As opposed to what it has done until now – which is react to Hamas numbers without providing accurate accountings as it sees it - this time the Israeli government has to be ready with accurate figures.

Ramadan ends in two weeks followed by a three day holiday, Eid al-Fitr (if you fast every day for a month you deserve a 3 day holiday).  So far Ramadan has not turned out as Hamas planned.  While there is an uptick in terrorism in the West Bank it has been met by concentrated efforts by the IDF to quell it.  There have been major operations in Tulkarm, Jenin and other terror centers and the Temple Mount has not seen the violence Hamas was planning.   We already wrote about the overreaction to Ramadan (Who is Afraid of Ramadan? ).

In spite of what the global media would like you to believe, Netanyahu is one of the more cautious PM’s Israel has had which in hindsight is what will lead to his downfall.   Does that mean Israel will wait until after the Eid al-Fitr?   In general, we would answer yes – however if the plan is to take neighborhood by neighborhood and not do what it did in the north of Gaza  and have three divisions there at one time then Israel could start the operation whenever it is militarily and diplomatically feasible.   Intelligence on the location and disposition of the remaining 134 hostages will also be a factor. As we have stated before, besides Jordan, not much of the Arab world or the legendary (or mythical?) Arab street seems to care all that much about Hamas and Gaza.   My guess is Paris, Brussels and London have more to fear from a violent reaction to the Rafah operation, even during Ramadan, than Cairo, Riyadh or Casablanca.  

Israel needs to finish its main Gaza operations soon as it needs to be ready for a full scale ground operation in Lebanon before the summer starts.  There are still some 80,000 odd Israelis who can’t go back to their homes along the northern border since they are in direct range of Hezbollah anti-tank rockets.   The residents are setting a deadline in August.   There could still be a diplomatic solution, but Israel can’t count on that and they need to be able to hold Gaza with a minimal number of troops – maybe one or two divisions, while keeping one in the West.  The rest will be concentrated in the north. As opposed to the Gaza war, one against Hezbollah cannot go on for 5 months since the fierce rocket and missile attacks that are expected will wreak havoc upon the home front and civil life generally. 

We mention this only to emphasize that Israel needs to finish Gaza by May at the latest (understanding that there will be continuous attempts by Hamas and others to harass Israel and the IDF).  The west will have to understand that the survival of Hamas means the defeat for the West.  It is not only a war against what was done on October, 7 but it is a stand that Israel is finally taking against the Russian-Iranian-Chinese Axis.    If Israel fails due to its own inabilities, then the West can write Israel off – if Israel fails do to Western cowardice, the entire West can be written off.

The risks are there – but the endgame must be the destruction of Hamas in Gaza. This is not choice but a war that was a long time coming.