The Trump Gaza Plan Made Real
An Exchange of Populations Must be Completed
President Trump’s Gaza plan is now a few weeks old and the Arab world is scrambling to come up with an alternative and in Israel the debate rages as to its “morality” and its practicality. The job of Israel now, if it reads how President Trump works correctly (and it probably doesn’t) is to take this idea and create a practical plan with it. If Israel does not do it and the Arab League comes up with an alternative less good for Israel that satisfies the US Administration, Israel will have lost out again on a gift that will rid at least one and possibly more than one threat from the country.
We will modestly propose a workable plan, based on the reality of the situation that exists now and based on the historical plight of refugees in the middle east and around the world. It is rarely good to be a refugee but it is often better than not being a refugee. As attached as people are to their homes and to their homeland, the mass immigration we have seen over the past few decades out of war torn countries and into law abiding countries is proof that many millions want out of the horror that they live in.
There are two pre-conditions to the plan we propose below and that is the return of all Israeli hostages, dead and alive and the exile of Hamas and Islamic Jihad leadership from Gaza. The two are, of course tied together and can be accomplished either by warfare or by the surrender of the Hamas and Jihad to the dictates of the United States and Israel. The latter will not occur with just US and Israeli diplomatic pressure. Rather, the Arab League must demand it, offer safe passage to these leaders (my guess is that the number of needs to be around 1,000 or so) and agree to cut off all aid - material, diplomatic and military - to all Gazan residents if Hamas and Jihad do not accede to their demands.
Will the Arab League make this decision? Probably not, although it seems that President Trump has put the fear of God into many people these days and a deadlocked Arab League meeting this week could work just as well. If the Arab League does not make this decision they will be denied a say in the rebuilding of Gaza in particular and in the Palestinian “issue” in general. With Arab League out of the picture, Israel, with diplomatic and material cover from the United States will have to resume its combat operations in Gaza, taking it again, piece by piece, creating what we here proposed at the start of the war, Hamas free zones, allowing only women and children in and denying the rest of Gaza all food, water, electricity and medicine. The war will end with the unconditional surrender of Hamas and Jihad and the return of the hostages, with the execution of the 1,000 leaders – unless they accept Israel and America’s terms before.
The objective of the combat operations is to deny Hamas that one weapon they need more than anything – the death of their own people. Once “the world” (or the part of the world that counts) stops blaming Israel and stops pressuring Israel over the death of “innocents”, once these “innocents” are in these Hamas free zones and out of harms way, Hamas will be denied its most potent weapon.
Freeing Gaza from Hamas is do-able. It was do-able last year and is still do-able. It is only the will of Israel and the US that stood in the way last year.
The plan to empty Gaza of as many Gazan residents as possible can start, as we stated earlier with the 60% of current Gaza residents who are not Gazans. These 1.4 million people are, according to the UN, refugees from what is now Israel. Since they themselves don’t claim to be Gazans they have no real right to live there. As a first step UNRWA needs to be closed and their care, as refugees needs to be moved to the UN High Commissioner on Refugees whose job is it to find permanent residences for them. These 1.4 million non-Gazans will never return to their great-great grandparents homes in Israel so the only moral and practical solution for them is resettlement.
Where should they go? President Trump suggested Jordan and Egypt, which makes sense. However, if we look to 20th century history we see that the best solution to refugee issues has been an exchange of populations. We saw it work in Europe after WWII, in Greece and Turkey after WWI, in India-Pakistan. As is known, after the establishment of the State of Israel in 1948, approximately 800,000 Jews were expelled or left their homes in Arab countries and came to Israel. It is only right that these countries take the Palestinians who were expelled or left voluntarily from their homes in current Israel since this would be that “exchange of populations”.
The numbers of course need to be multiplied as the UN considers 4th and 5th generation descendants of the 1948 war as refugees.
But let’s start with the raw numbers of Jews expelled. Most were expelled from 1948-52, but some, like from Algeria were expelled in 1962 and Egypt in 1956.
Iraq – 140,000
Morocco – 250,000
Algeria – 140,000
Tunesia – 50,000
Egypt – 90,000
Libya – 40,000
Yemen – 50,000
Syria – 5,000
Lebanon – 7,000
These are the main countries and the numbers are approximate. We can add to this the 150,000 Iranian Jews who left Iran after the Islamic revolution.
At a minimum, these Arab countries and Iran need to take back these numbers and their descendants. However, IF the Arab League wants to be part of the solution we can leave it to them to decide on where best to re-settle them. This does not have to be done by force but they can be given a choice of remaining in Gaza, living in tents with NO material help from the Arab League, the UN or any other “humanitarian rights” organization or they can chose to move to the countries that expelled Jews or other countries that the Arab League deicides. This resettlement can be funded by the Arab League. Once a decision is taken and a resettlement plan made, the rest of the Gazans can chose to live in Gaza and help in its rebuilding or to move with their brethren.
In the meanwhile Israel will place strict military control over Gaza and be given free reign to ensure that it is clear of weapons. This Israeli rule can last ten years, more or less after which time it can become internationalized, under the control of the United States and any other country or group of countries it deems relevant.
At the same time that the Trump Gaza plan comes to fruitioin, UNRWA as a whole needs to disbanded completely and the residents of the UNRWA refugee camps in places like Jenin and Tulkarm in the West Bank/Judea Samaria can be added to the plan. The same for the refugee camps in Lebanon and Syria. Once this too is in place, the next step is to form Palestinian Emirates in areas where there are large concentration of Palestinians. As we proposed last year, under the inspiration of Moredecai Kaidar, a weapons-free Confederated Emirates of Palestine can be established that will allow them to have a national identity including passports and total control of internal affairs, no military and a gradual control of their external affairs.
This is not a utopian plan and it is not a plan that will take 3 years. This is a ten to twenty year plan that can work as long as the United States, Israel and the Arab League have the will to make it happen. The weak link is most of all the Arab League. Will they buy into this? We are seeing some indication that they finally understand that the Palestinian “problem” is as much their problem as Israel’s. They are pouring untold billions into this issue and have had to put their own national interests on hold in order to support it.
Of course the main opponents of the plan will be Egypt and Jordan. Jordan is less of an issue since the only prestige they still hold in the Arab world is the control of the Waqf on the Temple Mount in Jerusalem. The threat to move this control to Saudi Arabia might be enough to make them relent. Egypt however, will be a harder nut to crack. As we wrote recently Egypt has spent that last decade or so building up its army and breaking the peace treaty by building arms caches, naval ports and tank installations in Sinai and playing Israel in their negotiations with Hamas in Gaza. They want a Gaza that threatens Israel because they want an Israel, destroyed. How they can be brought on board will be a job for the United States and the wealthy Arab countries. Isreal can do its part by rebuilding its Army to be able to face and possibly pre-empt an Egyptian onslaught. Unlike Hamas, Egypt can be deterred with the threat of destruction.
As for Saudi Arabia, they can be brought on board as they want a deal with Israel as much as Israel does and being presented with a practical solution to Gaza and a long term solution to the rest of the Palestinian issue as well as dealing with Iran should be enough for them.
This is not easy, but no one ever said it was. The main stumbling block is still Hamas control of Gaza and the Israeli hostages they hold there. This Israel has failed to solve in nearly 18 months but it no longer has the excuse of a foolish and dishonorable IDF Chief of Staff or a Biden-Blinken “no-escalation” strategy. By basing the Trump plan on an “exchange of populations” in which only one side (the Jewish) was actually resettled) with adjustments made by the Arab League itself under the iron fist of the United States, this can be done.
The alternatives to the Trump Plan are endless rounds of fighting in Gaza with all the horrors and costs that that incurs. There is no solution that includes Hamas or even the Palestinian Authority in control of Gaza and there is no solution where the vast majority of Gazan residents continue to participate in or celebrate the cruel murder of Jewish children.
Excellent And Pragmatic Solution to the long lasting Problem that the Middle East faces. The Arab league, indeed wouldn't have the muscle to offer a permanent solution to the Palestinian Problem by Eradicating Terrorism in Gaza and West Bank. Saudis have so far offered lip service to the Crisis ( May be Trump can pressure then to act upon) . The Qataries are playing two sides. Iran and it's factions has to be dismantled and Israel must control the Gaza Strip unless terrorism eradicated if Hamas and Islamic Jihad has not come to the Solution by leaving the Gaza Strip. Given their Martyr Culture, it's hard to see happening.
A very sound set of proposals. A few points about the wider context might be useful.
The ground is shifting politically in Europe. The paradigm established in the 70s (foreign aid to the Palestinians in return for not being targetted by Al Fatah and its allies) is breaking down due to the extremism of the ummah across Europe itself. Extortion by Resistance Incorporated continues, but the new realism about Islam and its politics is spreading fast. Remigration, forced repatriation en masse are on the agenda and will not go away. Europe will always have its scolds, but they are certain to be balanced, even constrained, by emerging political forces.
The ground is also shifting in the US. Key Clinton era achievements are crumbling. South Africa. NATO's grab for territory in Eastern Europe. Palestinian statehood. The willingness of the US to bank-roll the Palestinian jihad is diminishing fast. Once Trump achieves energy independence or autonomy Washington will be in a vastly stronger position. The ability of the Axis of Resistance to cause mayhem in US cities and campuses also makes Hamas a domestic problem within the US.
The UK itself is weakening fast and London's ability to pester Israel via Jordan and the Palestinians is crumbling. The rise of Russia and India incentivises realism and moderation across Western Asia. The fall of the mullahs in Tehran has begun. Once that regime falls, Israel regains a reliable regional friend.
The losers and fools of Israel's political class may miss their opportunity at first, but their replacements are certain to emerge as required. The logic of the conflict, which is zero-sum, is now crystal clear. There is no going back and there are plenty of reasons to be cautiously optimistic.