The Trump Doctrine!

An Exclamation Point via Fordow, Isfahan and Natanz

Israel created the circumstances and Trump pulled the trigger, weaking the Islamic Republic and putting an exclamation point on the Trump Doctrine. The President was spot on when he said that for decades they have been saying “death to America, death to Israel” and now it was time for them to pay the cost. As we wrote pre-attack, first Renounce Genocide, Then Negotiate. There can be no real negotiation with a regime whose goal is genocide and terror. An Iranian official has been quoted as saying that “in the middle east there is no room for two states – the Islamic Republic of Iran and Israel”. An Islamic Republic of Iran that does evil to its own citizens is a stain on human morality. An Islamic Republic of Iran whose raison d’etre is to spread that cruelty and destroy all that is in its way, is a stain on global stability.

What next? What still has to happen in order to be sure that Iran cannot threaten Israel, the Gulf Arab countries, United States installations and the West in general? Where do we stand?

The main nuclear installations seem to have been destroyed (the early evidence points in that direction), the missile program has been degraded and the Revolutionary Guard and nuclear leadership has been eliminated. There is still 425 kg of enriched uranium that may or may not have been deep down in the Isfahan and may or may not have been destroyed or buried. If its was destroyed that is the end of the Iranian nuclear program. If they were able to save it and Israel does not find and destroy it, the program has been set back for a number of years. And of course there are still substantial amounts of missiles and launchers as well as drones.

Israel has been shooting down over 95% of the drones shot at it and nearly 90% of the ballistic missiles. The missiles that get through are causing a lot of damage as each has a ton or more of explosives. The missile launchers must (nearly) all be destroyed for Israel to win its side of this war.

But there is also a role for US diplomats that does not include negotiating with a genocidal regime and that is to make sure that Russia, China and Turkey understand the seriousness of a nuclear Iran. All three are reflexively anti-Israel and it is America’s job to keep their involvement to rhetoric. Turkey is trying for form an all-Islamic anti-Israel front and they need to be told in no uncertain terms of the damage to their international standing and economy if they lead such a venture. As for Russia and China, the assumption has always been that both countries want to keep nuclear weapons away from their allies but is that the case? When there was a Soviet Union, they feared a revolt of their allies enough to make sure none would have nuclear weapons. There was an assumption that China would act the same way with North Korea, but that did not happen.

Both Russia and China might find it to their liking to have a fanatically anti-western country like Iran, with nuclear capabilities. The Russian National Security Council has indicated that “Iran is expected to make a nuclear bomb and there are countries that are ready to sell them the technology to do it”. Did Russia refer to themselves? North Korea? Pakistan? China? All the above? The Israeli war against Iran’s nuclear industry and the American attack both work under the assumption that the other members of the Axis don’t want to see a nuclear Iran – even if they also don’t want to see an American or Israeli victory.

But is that really the case? Could it be that both Russia and China, needless to say North Korea, would love to have a nuclear ally controlling the Persian Gulf? Could it be that having US forces and allies in the Middle East under constant threat of a nuclear Iran would be something they would welcome? The idea that Russia and China fear nuclear proliferation may be an outdated notion. If so, the United States will need to apply diplomatic and economic pressure in order to make sure Iran doesn’t get their bomb from the outside.

China now knows that the US will act when necessary and they now know that American arms are vastly superior to anything they have faced in the middle east, Ukraine and elsewhere. They have not yet met Chinese arms face to face, but it certainly has to worry them. China also knows that a certain percentage of 1-2 ton ballistic missiles will get through even the best anti-missile defense and cause damage that previously needed multiple sorties from advanced fighters or bombers -without the risk of loosing pilots. This will register in their attempts to control the Indo-Pacific.

The US attack was a major geostrategic success, and an exclamation point on the Trump Doctrine. Unter the Trump Doctrine the United States will do its best to negotiate deals that are in America’s interests while helping allies to do what they feel they need to do in their region of the world. The US will also use its military to support allies when negotiations fail to achieve their objectives putting vital American interests at risk. The neo-Limburghian McGovernites of the right misinterpret American interests to include only its internal commercial interests, ignoring the contribution allies make to its well-being. The left-wing isolationists just oppose the use of force under any circumstance that supports American interests. The isolationist right misunderstand American interests (especially when there is a Jewish angle) and the isolationist left despise American interests (especially when there is a Jewish angle).

Moving forward, Israel will need to continue hitting Iran’s strategic targets until they are all gone or the Iranian people and/or military overthrow the regime, while the United States needs to make Russia and China understand the danger to them of both a nuclear Iran and a victory of American weaponry. Russia and China also need to be taught of the danger to them of supporting regimes that create chaos and look to destabilize America and its allies via terror and other means.

One more lesson for the Unites States – the Mossad’s ability to infiltrate Iran and setup actual drone bases inside the country should show the folly of allowing the Chinese to buy up land – especially but not exclusively – near American military installations. The Trump Doctrine must push the immigration envelope to include threats to America’s security and not only as a threat to America’s unity.

One lesson for Western Europe’s progressive governments – you are now irrelevant.