The Sunni Vise- The North: Syria, Lebanon, Turkey, ISIS
Threats or Opportunities from the North?
There are contradictory reports coming out of the north as is to be expected when a long-term ruthless dictatorship collapses quickly. President Trump’s Mideast emissary, Steven Witkoff was quoted as saying that both Lebanon and Syria will be part of the Abraham accords and that would be a beautiful thing, if it happened. Both countries though are in the middle of internal crises. In Lebanon, Hezbollah is hinting at a renewed civil war and Al-Julani’s forces in Syria are still trying to consolidate their gains.
Syria is still in the revenge stage of their revolution as there are reports of the death of over 50 protesters in a village in the Latakia region. This is Allawi country. In an irony that could only happen in the middle east, the Allawis, who, under the Assad butchers have led the coalition in the Arab world to destroy Israel have refused to participate in the government’s anti-Israel protests against Israel’s presence in southern Syria. They seem to be looking to Israel as their potential savior. ISIS is still strong in Syria and the Turks are rumored to have used chemical weapons against the Kurds there. Even if that particular rumor is false, the Turks are a force to be reckoned with in Syria in general and northern Syria in particular. They will not give up these hard won gains – for their proxies defeated Russian and Iranian forces.
Israel continues to hold key strategic areas in southern Syria and continues to bomb military targets deep inside the country including around the capital, Damascus. Israel also is in talks to allow Syrian Druze to come and work in Israel. Our own view, stated many times is to hold a referendum in Jebel Druze and other Druze areas to see if their desire to be part of Israel is real and not just posturing and then to annex the Syrian part of Mount Hermon and Golan Heights and the areas leading to and including Jebel Druze.
As a matter of fact, in 1894, while the Ottomans controlled the whole area and there was no country called Syria, Lebanon or Israel, Jews, with help from Rothschild bought 88,000 dunam (nearly 22,000 acres) in the Hauran region of what is now, or was, Syria. Nine Jewish settlements were setup there, much as they were setup in what is now northern Israel. There was no thought that this would not be part of a future Jewish state. After being forced to abandon these settlements due to a plague they tried to go back but the Ottomans refused to allow them. After WWI when the colonialist French and British divided up the middle east, the Jewish landowners tried to have it be part of British Palestine instead of French Syria. The Druze in the area were also against French domination. This land dispute has never been resolved - meaning that Israel has a legal leg to stand on in annexing this part of Syria. The moral and security legs are already there.
MAP OF HAURAN REGION
The difference between what is happening on the ground and Witkoff’s apparent plan is stark and it is difficult to see where things are going. There are still three powers in the area have a say in the future of both Syria and Lebanon – Turkey, Iran and Israel. Iran is still in the game even though they have been weakened. Giving up on Hezbollah would mean the end of what is left of the Islamic Republic’s legitimacy – not only internally but in the Moslem world as a whole. Although it is hard to see Iran taking control of Syria and Lebanon the way it did, it still has enough influence in both countries to be bothersome.
Turkey is the most interesting country when it comes to President Trump’s foreign policy. It is a member of NATO just when NATO is becoming irrelevant. Although the breakup of NATO would give Turkey less influence and power in European power politics it will also free them to act the way Erdogan wants them to act – as a revanchist, Islamic power able to take on all (regional) comers – including Iran and Israel. They have played both sides of the Russian game since the start of the war in Ukraine and might have the power and influence to, if not scuttle, at least delay a Trump-Putin agreement on Ukraine and Gaza. Their presence in northern Syria – their “sphere of influence” - might be a present that Trump-Witkoff are planning to give him.
Israel is Israel and it is difficult to see it moving against a Trump move for peace with Syria and Lebanon even if it means security risks. It could be that they are on the same page already and the Administration will agree to, if not an annexation of parts of southern Syria at least a recognition of what, for Trump, is a key foreign policy principle – a “sphere of influence” there – as we have described above.
ISIS, other Sunni terrorist groups, Iranian backed Shiite militias, ex-Syrian officers – there are numerous groups with guns, power and influence and who are, by their very nature uncontrollable and no matter any agreement between Israel, Turkey and the governments of Lebanon and Syria, will be a force to be reckoned with. Regime change in Iran would lessen the power of Hezbollah, but not eliminate it. The smaller Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria would probably go away with the regime.
As for the Sunni groups – they will still thrive unless eliminated (not defeated but eliminated) militarily.
Israel still has much to fear from a Sunni Vise. Trump and Witkoff may yet pull this off – but it is as difficult a problem to solve as Gaza - maybe more so.
What we are certainly seeing is the end of the Sykes-Picot division of the middle east after over 100 years of creating opportunities for warfare on multiple fronts. Nothing could be better for the region than a redrawing of borders to take in the interests of the people that live there instead of the colonial powers that want to take advantage of it. But the consequences of the end of Sykes-Picot can go both ways if not handled properly. It would be a mistake to demand a westernization of the areas in the new borders. The whole Trumpian “spheres of influence” might better suit stability. Turkey in the north, Israel in the south and a demilitarized central Syria and Lebanon in the middle. A free Kurdistan would be nice, too – but the Turks will never permit that.
SYKES PICOT MAP
In the meanwhile, we have two large Sunni powers with their eyes on Israel, Turkey in the north and Egypt in the south and it will take diplomatic hardball and economic and military pressure to deter them from their messianic dreams of renewed greatness of two historic peoples by destroying the Jewish state. The Sunni Vise can come together to try and defeat Israel or it can be dismantled. The only question for each of these two Sunni powers is if a successful Israel is more hateful to them than a failed Egypt or Turkey because the chances are that even if they were to defeat Israel in some future war, the damage to their already frail countries might cause them to collapse, too.
Right now, the good money is that Erdogan and Al-Sisi would prefer to be the leaders that brought down Israel rather than the leaders of a revived Egypt and Turkey. It is the job of Israel and the Trump Administration to show them that while they can’t bring down Israel, they can be failures in their own countries.