The "Save Hamas" Coalition

Qatar, Blinken and the rest, race to save Hamas

It is clear that the world is now coalescing around a “save Hamas” strategy and all the pressure regarding the Gaza part of the Iran-Israel War remains focused on Israel.   The Qatari foreign minister was on Fox and stated that he is confident that a deal can be done because Israel has agreed to what is a good starting point.   Translated into middle-eastern talk he is saying that they have received major concessions from Israel and those concessions won’t be taken to Hamas as a deal but will be the starting point of negotiations with Hamas. 

There have been no concessions from Hamas that could be a starting point of negotiations with Israel, but the opposite.  For all the destruction that Israel is doing in Gaza and all the damage done to civilian life there, Hamas still has the upper hand in negotiations due to Qatar being the center of the talks.   The rumors of the next hostage deal are exchanges that are worse than the first deal.   If the rumors are true then they will get a two month cease fire in exchange for 30-40 hostages – and for each hostage released Israel will have to release 100-200 Hamas terrorists sitting in Israeli prisons. If you remember the first deal it was 10 hostages per day of cease fire and a 3:1 terrorist-hostage ratio.  So, after all the fighting the world is sure that Hamas is in a better position since Qatar is running the show and have either bought off or finessed the other parties.

The anti-Israel press (and Ha’aretz is the leading anti-Israel newspaper in the western world so if that is your news source for Israel you might as well read the Washington Post) is sure that the government is under pressure from the families of the hostages for a deal “at any cost”.  However, the polls show that 80% of the country is against ending fighting or long cease fires until Hamas is destroyed and there is no reliable data on what percentage of families of hostages are in favor of it and how many oppose it.

We know that Ronen Tzur, who is not a family member but who is the head of the establishment group that is “Advising”  the hostage families movement is backed by lots of money.  Some of that money  Politico is reporting as coming from Qatar.  According to this Politico report, Jay Footlik, a consultant working for Qatar has met with these advisors.  Other Qatari funded US groups including the “Richardson Center for Global Engagement” have, according to Politico advised the families not to criticize Qatar.  Qatar, to remind everyone is harboring Hamas leaders and is one of the biggest exporters of Islamic extremism in the Arab world.  The Qatari owned Al-Jazeera you hear in English is nothing like the Arabic version with its venom against Israel and Jews.

There are other, less well funded and less well connected organizations that represent the families of the hostages.  One is Tzav 9 that is calling for ending what the world is calling “humanitarian” aide to Gaza and what in reality is military aide for Hamas (Tzav 9 is a play on Tzav 8 – which is the order given to reservists to report to duty).  The Shaback (General Security Services) has indicated that 60% of all aide goes directly to Hamas and the rest is sold by them on the open market in Gaza. 

I am not an attorney but both Israel and the United States have laws against sending support to terrorist organizations making this “humanitarian” aide illegal.  Any country, individual or organization that supports this aide is acting illegally. 

Further, there are reports in the Arab press that Egypt is charging $5,000 per aide truck that passes through its hands.  This money goes directly to the coffers of the Egyptian military.  If 150 trucks a day are going through that means $750,000 a day going to Egypt’s army or over $22 million per month.  That is not counting the alleged unofficial bribes required on the ground.

The racket that is known as international humanitarian aide to Gazan civilians is in fact a business setup for the profit of Hamas and Egyptian military. 

Getting back to a “hostage” deal – if the Israeli government is feeling pressure, it is not coming from hostage families per se but by the Qatari backed advisors.  However, with the reserve soldiers mostly released from the army, we can be sure that public pressure will not come from the side that wants to end the fighting and a release of hostages “at all costs” but the opposite.  Pressure will be to harden positions until Hamas surrenders.

The deal that ought to be pushed by the Israeli government and the US is one in which the only concession offered  is to allow Sinwar and his family and cronies to leave Gaza alive in exchange for the hostages.   This has been proposed by Mordecai Kaider and others and will work on the assumption that Sinwar actually wants to live and not die as a shahid.  The continued destruction of Hamas infrastructure in Khan Yunis and active hunting of remaining terrorists in other areas and the continuous destruction of their tunnel network in all of Gaza will be the only pressure that will convince Sinwar to take that deal.  But each comment by Blinken and each concession to Qatar by Israel will only encourage Sinwar to stay put and keep the hostages in danger.

We know that Blinken does not understand the situation in the middle east or in the world.  He does not understand that there are two regional wars going on that, if not won, they will lead to a third regional war and therefore a world war.   There is no alternative to victory and if Biden-Blinken are not willing or able to do their part they should at least allow those who are willing (right now Israel and Ukraine), to fight.  All that is asked of them is military hardware and diplomatic cover.  

Accepting the hostage deal that is even close to what the rumors are, is surrender.  As it would be due to pressure from the “save Hamas” coalition it will bring Israel closer to another October 7 and the world closer to the end of era of Pax Americana.