The Persian Lion and the Russian Bear

Israel hits the IRG while Blinken cowers in fear

Israel prepares for the Rafah offensive in Gaza and the Lebanese border heats up with volleys of rockets, artillery, drones and missiles.  In addition to this, Israel has apparently attacked a building either right outside or inside the Iranian Embassy complex in Damascus, Syria (depending on who you ask) and has killed Iranian Revolutionary Guard (IRG) General Mohammad Reza Zahedi who is responsible for coordination and support of Iranian Shiite proxies in Syrai and Lebanon – including Hezbollah.  At least 7 other IRG officers have also been killed.

Zahedi was the most senior IRG officer outside of Iran and he has been called the puppeteer of Hezbollah as well as the smaller Iranian-Shiite proxies.  If the attack was actually a consular building, then Israel has attacked Iranian sovereign territory.  In any event, Iran is finally starting to pay the price for the chaos they have spread in the middle-east and elsewhere.

Iran’s response of course was as expected and are threatening retaliation for the violation of the sanctity of a country’s embassy - not realizing the ultimate irony of Iran speaking of the sanctity of embassies.  It seems they forgot the founding story of the Islamic Republic of Iran.  The Biden-Blinken administration obviously also forgot that Iran took US diplomats hostage way back when as they, in their cowardly fashion, made sure to tell the Iranians that they had no prior knowledge of the alleged Israeli attack. 

Now that Iran’s embassy in Damascus is no longer a safe house one wonders if the next terrorist meeting will be at the Russian embassy.  Not long after the attack, official Iranian news sites released this caricature showing the closeness of the Persian lion and the Russian bear.   This might be a signal of a major Iranian offensive as the lion is a pre-Islamic figure in Iranian mythology.  The Islamic Republic of Iran has for the most part erased its pre-Islamic history, glorious as it was, due to its Zoroastrian and pagan origins.   This might be a way to gather popular support much as Stalin used the “Fatherland” in WWII, ignoring the unpopular international revolution.

from 301 ha’olam ha’aravi

But it is more than that of course, as the article accompanying the caricature spoke of the close Iranian-Russian relationship and how much Iran has contributed to the Russian war effort.   While Biden-Blinken have been busy appeasing Iran and making sure no Iranian blood is spilt as they kill US soldiers and shoot at US vessels, the Iranians and Russians have been cooperating to make sure more US and US allied blood is split in Ukraine as well as the middle east.  We all know about Iranian drones destroying infrastructure in Ukraine and Russian fighter jets being sold to Iran.  Although not widely reported in the Western press, last Thursday, Russian naval vessels from their Pacific fleet entered the Red Sea via the Bab al-Mandab Straits that the Houthis now control.   It would take a fool to think that this was not coordinated with the Iranians.

In addition, there are reports that the Russian army is training Syrian artillery units in new tactics that include drone warfare.  The Syrian and Russian militaries have longstanding ties, but this too is surely being done in coordination with the Iranians.

The goal of both Russia and the Islamic Republic of Iran is to push the US out of their respective neighborhoods and if successful China will certainly attempt the same in the Indo-Pacific.  We have stated this ad nauseum – but Biden-Blinken are spending way too much time castigating and doubting Israel than it is taking care of its own global interests.  Even if one believes that US interests are nearly exclusively in the Indo-Pacific, as Elbridge Colby does, one certainly would not think that abandoning allies diplomatically in key regions (even tertiary ones as Colby terms the middle-east) will help deter Chinese hegemony.   This is certainly true if you understand that China’s main global allies are Iran and Russia.  But the US and its allies seem only to want to find fault with Israel’s war effort – especially when it mistakenly kills western aid workers.  Israel is never given the benefit of the doubt and “demands” always come to it from Western capitals. 

The willingness of Israel to attack Iranian sovereign territory means it is finally holding Iran responsible for the five front war it is fighting.   More than an attack on Rafah without US support, this shows the US and the West that Israel understands the region it lives in and is willing to do what is necessary to continue living in it even if the Blinkens of the world want to pretend that Israel borders Luxembourg or Denmark.  It also shows the Iranians (and the Russians) that its intelligence capabilities and agents inside Iranian intelligence can pinpoint meetings of its most senior officers in the middle east and will use that information to its advantage. 

The Israeli attack though was more than a message.  It was rather a continuation of its policy, abandoned in the lead-up to October 7 and now revived, that those individuals and nations who seek to harm Israel will pay a price.    

The Iranian response might be strong and could lead to an earlier war in the north than has been expected.   The question of course is if they will have Hezbollah answer for them with terrorist attacks at Israeli embassies abroad or if Hezbollah or other proxies will send missiles into Israel in retaliation, or if Iran will risk hitting israel with missiles from its own territory?  The risk for Iran of course is that Israel, in retaliation, will bomb IRG bases and missile sites within Iran itself – a strike that, if successful, could lead to the downfall of the Islamic Republic itself.  Without the IRG, the regime has no defense as the Iranian army is not loyal to the Islamists in power.  Israel has to make this an Israel vs Islamic Republic fight and not an Israel vs Iranian people fight. 

Israel took a risk in hitting Iran now – will Iran take their own risk or will they leave this to their “proxies”?