Temptations and Opportunities
New Alignments in the Mideast and Eastern Mediterranean?
Is Syria becoming Erdogan’s lab rat in his rush to form an workable Islamist state and then neo-Ottoman Caliphate? Is Syria the laboratory experiment for an acceptable Islamic state, not quite Iran and not quite Morocco that will enable Erdogan to become the man who puts Sunni Islam back on the anti-Israel map after playing second fiddle to Shiite Iran for the last few decades? Turkey is already occupying a good chunk of northern Syria and doubling down on their fight against the Kurds and he has raised the tone in his anti-Israel rhetoric.
Last year, Egypt and Turkey resumed relations via a major arms deal as the two countries had their first high-level talks since President Al-Sisi’s coup ended the Moslem Brotherhood government of Mohammed Morsi. Erdogan is a strong proponent of the Brotherhood in Egypt but last year toned down his rhetoric and started befriending the current Egyptian military dictatorship. Now with the unforeseen fall of Assad in Syria by Turkish backed forces has presented a new temptation in his combination of neo-Ottoman revanchism and old time Islamic anti-Semitism – taking over from Iran as the main force in an attempt to rid the region of Israel.
Syria’s new Islamist leader in a suit, Abu Mohammad al-Julani, is smartly not looking to challenge Israel in the south of his country, hoping to consolidate his gains and impose his rule, first. He has already taken evolution out of the education curriculum and is Islamizing it further. Erdogan, might follow the Iranian example and instead of risking his own or even Syrian troops, send his version of Iran’s proxies to fight the IDF.
But the dismantlement of the Shiite crescent due to the decimation of Hezbollah in Lebanon and their inability to come to Assad’s aid will certainly not mean a quiet northern and northeastern border for the Jewish state. The southern border seems also to start worrying Israel’s security establishment as Egypt has been rearming at a worrisome pace and has been building offensive and defensive capabilities in the Sinai Peninsula, which is an abrogation of the Israel-Egypt peace treaty. Israel foolishly let Egypt increase its active forces, including allowing tanks in Sinai too, ostensibly to fight ISIS which was becoming a menace in partnership with the Bedouin tribes. This allowed Egypt to build permanent bases there as well as increase its forces along the border with Gaza (in Rafah and the other side of the Philadelphi corridor) and probably increased arms smuggling into Gaza from Sinai in the leadup to October 7 and afterwards until Israel finally occupied the border area.
Reports have now hit the Israeli press that Egypt is building massive anti-tank barriers in strategic parts of Sinai which have no obvious anti-terror purpose but rather is being built to stop Israel in any future war. Much as the current IDF General Staff assumed that Hamas had no “interest” in fighting Israel, they have, for the past 30 years assumed the same regarding Egypt. There have been Cassandra’s like ex-General Yitzchak Brik who have warned that the IDF needs to be prepared to fight Egypt should the time come and he has never been more right. That is not to say there will be a war anytime soon, but the best way to prevent one is not to rely on a 40 year old peace treaty but on the ability to repeat 1967.
But returning to Turkey and the north what can Israel do to deter Turkey from sending proxies to fight or, in a scenario that might actually end NATO – fight directly against Israel? A direct confrontation seems an extreme event, but this is the middle east and even the change of seasons is an extreme event.
Israel must do four things to deter Turkish aggression against it. The first is to maintain a long-term presence on the Syrian Mt. Hermon and other key strategic areas. This will allow Israel to be on the offensive against any proxy attacks. The second is to give an affirmative answer to the Druze request to be part of Israel. This would give Israel territory with a friendly population and would have the added effect of helping to protect the Hashemite Kingdom from Turkish inspired Moslem Brotherhood/Hamas coup. The third is to do what it can to help the Kurds in their fight against Turkey.
The fourth is to form a tripartite defense treaty with Cyprus and Greece. In Cyprus, joint use air and naval bases could give Israel added offensive and defensive weapons. As for Greece, the Greek and Israeli navies already have a close relationship and a common defense treaty for events dealing in the eastern Mediterranean could strengthen that. Where an Egyptian-Turkish strategic understanding would threaten Israel from the north and the south, an Israeli-Greek-Cypriot one would be able to balance the Turkish naval control of parts of the eastern Mediterranean and the Aegean. Isreal’s Nagal commission, formed after October 7 to assess Israel’s military needs and propose which weapons systems need to be purchased has suggested that Israel needs to prepare for a possible confrontation with Turkey.
Turkey, in addition to their constant threats to Israel also threaten Greece on a regular basis and even have challenged Greece’s sovereignty to islands in the Aegean, including the Dedecanese Islands which include Rhodes and Kos. As for Cyprus, Turkey illegally occupies the northern part of the island. They also challenge Cypriot gas fields. In short, Turkey, especially under Erdogan’s revanchist regime is a threat to all three countries and their control of Syria would give them more leverage in the eastern Mediterranean. A tripartite agreement between Israel, Cyprus and Greece would give Turkey food for thought in any prospective confrontation against any of these countries. Israel already trains in Cyprus and joint air and naval bases there and possibly in Crete would provide strong deterrence against Turkish aggression.
As for Egypt, only a hard line on Egyptian forces in Sinai combined with a ramp up of Israel’s infantry and armored corps and more training in desert warfare will give Israel what it needs to deter Egypt from ganging up with Turkey/Syria in any future attacks.
The incoming Trump administration is providing optimism in Israel for attacks on Iran and the expansion of the Abaraham accords to include Saudi Arabia and while important, that will just force Israel to change focus, not to pretend again that there is a peace dividend. Saudi opposition to Shiite expansionism and domination is easy for them to do even if it means befriending Israel, but it is not clear that even Crown Prince and future king Bin Salman will be able resist an all Sunni call to move against Israel. Peace treaty or not, Saudi Arabia is not the be all and end all of Israel’s confrontation with the Arab and Moslem world. That confrontation will continue no matter how many agreements are signed.
That is not to say that Israel should not pursue peace with the Saudis and others but only that it needs to understand that they are permanent as long as interests collide – security, economic and religious. Israel and the West have a bad habit of ignoring things once pieces of paper are signed. Israel’s failings have to do with assuming that what Israel considers “interests” are what the other considers interests. That is clearly not the case with Hamas in Gaza and the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank. The same holds for Iran and Hezbollah and soon enough with Syria. As for Turkey, they will have to decide over the next few years if they want to be a NATO partner or the leader of the Sunni world. What will tempt them more? The former gets them western prosperity while the latter gets them divine glory. There are now opportunities for both and they will have to decide which best suits them.
If Turkey succeeds in their Syrian Moslem Brotherhood experiment we need to be ready for them to transfer it to Turkey and to form one powerful contiguous Sunni Caliphate. If, while doing that they continue their rapprochement with Egypt by stopping their support of the Brotherhood in Egypt in return for an alliance, then both Jordan and Saudi Arabia will be under pressure to ally with them. Egypt’s al-Sisi is a very religious Moslem, albeit not part of the Moslem Brotherhood. He was the choice of the Brotherhood to run the army due to his piety. A mistaken judgement of course, but it does not take away from his religiosity. Israel needs to beware of this.
Israel and the US certainly need to move forward with Saudi talks and with the destruction and possible overthrow of the Islamic Republic of Iran – but that will not mean the end of conflict with the Arab and Moslem world, no matter what treaties are signed.