The misunderstanding of President Trump’s foreign policy is confusing many Israelis, not least those in leadership positions who should know better. President Trump is no more a Zionist than he is pro-Putin than he is anti-China, anti-Canada or however one wants to label him. The current President is pro-American, and everything he does, he does, in his own mind, to help America. He is not more narcissistic or ego-driven than any other successful politician although he shows it differently. The President drives the agenda but in order to help America and to speak to his multiple constituencies - not to satisfy the ideological or moral goals of people in other countries.
The Iran talks came as a surprise to Israelis and Israeli leadership and the Houthi “agreement” came as a shock and even a betrayal. Yet, the “job” of the United States Navy, as we have stated here in our criticisms of the Biden administration is “freedom of the seas”. There has never been a claim that the United States has a responsibility to stop the Houthis from lobbing missiles into Israel, especially since the damage is minimal. If the US “agreement” with the Houthis does not include freedom of shipping to Israel then the administration has betrayed its goals. But if it does, then no more can be expected of any American administration. Of course, the question remains what “agreement” means when dealing with a group such as the Houthis - but that is another question.
In a short but persuasive essay, Michael Oren has written how, regarding Israel We Can only Rely on Ourselves. What is original about Oren’s essay is that he speaks of UN and other international organizations that Israel has entrusted with its safety – such as UNIFIL in Lebanon, and the post-1956 “peacekeepers” in Sinai that Nasser threw out prior of the 1967 war. He also criticizes Netanyahu for refraining from military action against Iran and giving “President Obama the time and space to conclude a nuclear deal that would address Israel’s basic security needs”. I would add to this that the US is a signatory to the Egypt-Israel peace treaty and yet it is not enforcing Egyptian violations of that agreement in Sinai
Israel seems to be the only country in the world that, on the one hand does not rely on foreign troops to help defend itself and on the other hand, uses fake armies to monitor what it should be monitoring – enemy forces across the border.
The Houthis form a unique problem for Israel and the fact that Israel has not developed a missile corps is part of the difficulty in dealing with the Houthi annoyance and threat. The Air Force filled with F-15’s 16’s and 35’s is a potent force with an incredibly long reach and intense power. The Houthis do not have the missile defense Israel has and therefore are vulnerable to missile attacks along the lines of the Iranian attacks on Israel over the past year. It is cheaper and more lethal than having advanced fighters fly 2,000 km’s to drop a limited payload.
The second issue with Israel’s dealing with the Houthis are the choice of Houthi targets. Israel’s recent attack was the first attack on the Houthis by Israel that destroyed important infrastructure as it totally destroyed their airport and the jets on the ground. This should have been done at the beginning, after the first missile was launched. Israel needs to totally cutoff the Houthis from the world by also destroying their ports and by threatening any ship that tries to enter a Houthi port with being sunk. Israel has a decent size submarine force and it can do enough damage to make countries think twice before sending ships to their ports.
Israel’s lack of a response to Houthi attacks is due to a long-standing concept of terror that if no one was killed and no “real” damage done, it did not happen. This is as true of Houthi attacks as it is of Hamas and Hezbollah rocket attacks as it is of stone throwing and sniper fire on roads of Israel. This is the Biden “take the win” strategy and that has encouraged terror attacks of all kinds against Israel, and it has to stop. Blaming the US or President Trump for not being stronger than you are is not a policy, it is childish and naïve behavior by people who claim to know the world. If Israel is serious about the Houthis and treats it as a threat and no just as an annoyance it must form a total air and sea blockade by threatening any ship entering a Houthi port or any plane attempting to land in a Houthi airport with destruction.
Iran is a separate issue in that since I believe the Clinton administration the United States has promised Israel that Iran will not be allowed to have a nuclear weapon. The Obama agreement put lie to that as it allowed Iran to develop one over time. Michael Oren, as former US ambassador knows the ins and outs of what was discussed between the US and Israel but even if Israel should have destroyed their nuclear capabilities years ago the US still has an obligation to Israel and to the world in general. Nuclear non-proliferation has been a priority for the US since the end of WWII. Where President Trump is heading with Iran is hard to tell. At a minimum, the US can no longer “veto” Israeli attacks on Iran and must sell it whatever arms it needs.
What is to be done? In addition to forming new alliances with Greece, Cyprus, India and other countries and manufacturing weaponry and ammunitions in-house, Israeli leadership has to understand what all countries around the world understand – you must defend your own interests as they don’t always mesh with others. No more peacekeeping forces and no more sending “signals” to enemies that want to destroy you. It is time to forget international support, UN “peacekeepers” and international guarantees.
While freedom of the seas is the responsibility of the United States (until it decides it will follow other priorities) defending Israel from attack is not – unless it decides to deny Israel the means to defend itself. If the Trump administration denies Israel that right – then we are back to the Biden-Harris days. And no one wants that.
An additional point. It has been questioned (e.g. by VP Vance) why the US must take the lead in, say, punishing the Houthis or keeping the sea lanes open. There are a variety of answers. But there is one that is largely overlooked. I have mentioned before the virtual non-existence of Chinese combat experience. I would argue that every time the US engages militarily, it sharpens the spear. Equipment, personnel, and tactics are evaluated in real-world situations, skill-sets maintained.