Russian Deterrence in the Mideast

Will the Expanding Russian presence in the Syria Deter Israel and the US?

Will the Expanding Russian presence in the Middle East Deter Israel and the US?

We wrote previously about the Russian presence in the Middle East and their desire for a warm weather port, but they are now getting more heavily involved in the Israel-Iran war.   As Iran steps up attacks on Israel via its proxies in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen, Russia is, not so quietly, increasing its presence in southern Syria, in clear site of the Israeli Golan Heights.   Russian forces in Syria are mainly concentrated in the northern cities of Aleppo and Idlib, where they, along with the Syrian air force bomb anti-government (often civilian) targets, and in Latakia where they have their coveted warm weather port.  Russia’s close relationship with Iran has now given them an opportunity to enter the war on their side in order to rid the middle east of the US. 

In addition to the main Russian forces in the north of Syria, Russia has, for many years, placed troops in the south too – but in the Daraa and As Suwayda area, far from Israel.   They are there ostensibly to prevent a return of ISIS to the area.   However, ISIS is no longer a threat there and Iranian backed Shiite militias predominate – and Russia does not look to prevent its new allies from destabilizing Jordan – a US ally.

Now, Russian “listening posts”, with Russian flags, are visible from the Israeli border in the southern Golan Heights from the west of Nafa’ah and Ash Shajarah. Whether this is seen as protective cover to Iranian backed militias that harass Jordan or as a deterrence to Israel is unclear.  There are even (unconfirmed) reports that they have let militia members into their posts and are wearing Russian army uniforms. 

In spite of Israel’s stated policy of not letting Iran/Hezbollah have a presence in southern Syria, Israeli governments have not brought enough firepower over the years to keep them away.   For whatever reason, Israel prefers to destroy (replaceable) equipment and to spare (irreplaceable) Iranian soldiers and terrorists.  Israel correctly bombs ammunition convoys and closes down the Damascus airport for weeks but has generally refrained from targeting Iranian operatives (that may have ended now with the killing of IRG General Sayyed Razi Mousavi). 

The increased Russian presence in southern Syria could be there as a tripwire, much as US troops were in West Berlin during the Cold War.   No one thought that the Berlin Brigade could hold off Soviet tanks, but their presence assured Europe as well as the Soviets that the death of US soldiers would force the US to fight back with all its military force.  The Russians have their hands full in Ukraine, but Putin feels newfound confidence fueled by confusion in the west regarding Ukraine, the failure of the Ukrainian offensive and the success of Iran against the US in the Red Sea.   They also see how the US restrains its allies both in Ukraine and in Israel as well as its own forces in Syria, Iraq and even on the open seas.

As Seth Cropsey has written in the WSJ (America Needs a Middle East Strategy) the Biden-Blinken administration is still trying to “manage a crisis” and not formulating, let alone executing a strategy for what is already a major regional (and soon world?) war.

There are even quite unbelievable reports from the Syrian opposition that the US is outsourcing the security of its troops to Russia – and has asked them to use their influence with Iran to stop attacks on US troops.   This seems too much even for the Biden-Blinken appeasement policy but it makes sense to the average middle-easterner after the withdrawal from Afghanistan that turned into a rout – as the US assumed the Taliban would wait patiently for the US to leave so as not to humiliate them, as well as the US requesting Iran to stop their militias from attacking US military bases and by the purely defensive behavior of the US Navy in the Red and Arabian Seas.

Even if these Syrian opposition reports are not true (and they probably aren’t), the damage is done for in the middle east, which invented the post-modern definitions of truth centuries ago – it is the narrative that is important as it is the narrative that starts wars.  Here in the middle east, you can stand in front of a destroyed building and yell victory.  Here in the middle east, the moment word gets out that you are even considering doing something that dishonors you, the die is cast.    As the Biden-Blinken “manage the crisis appeasement” is official US policy, making a request of your enemy to help defend your soldiers makes sense (especially after Afghanistan, Ukraine and the constant hectoring of Israel for using the only tactics that work against terrorists).  Therefore, it is “true” in the “middle eastern-ancient-post-modern” sense of truth.  The famous “Arab street” that the West fears so much (and has been interestingly quiet of late) will believe the rumor over the fact if it fits the narrative fed to them over the years.

Be that as it may, Russia is tightening its ties with Iran and increasing its presence in the middle east.   Russia is allowing Iranian aircraft to use its Syrian airbase to arm Hezbollah and has put Libyan based Wagner forces to use for the same goal.   

If there are increased Iranian attacks across the Syrian-Israeli border or even attempts to infiltrate terrorists, will the Russian presence deter Israel from responding or will Israel wait until a Hamas like attack occurs?

At least as important a question is, will the US be deterred to act in its own interests in the middle east by an even tighter (and nuclear) Russian-Iranian axis?   In Ukraine, Russian nukes deterred the US from giving Ukraine the power to hit Russia proper – will they deter the US from responding as it should to further attacks against US forces?  Will the US force Israel to hold back in deference to the Russian presence?