Russia in the Mideast War

Russian Involvement Increases Volatility and Risk

What is  the nature of Russian involvement in the Mideast portion of WWIII?  Although busy fighting in Ukraine, as well as in Russian territory itself, Russia is very active around the globe .  They are funding criminal gangs in sub-Saharan Africa in order to mine for minerals and they have active bases in Libya.  But their main area of activity, their “second front” in the War, as it may, is in Syria where they maintain multiple air and naval bases for over 10 years and have been training the Syrian army in artillery and drone warfare. 

But their activities don’t end there.  The IDF, in their incursions into southern Lebanon, anyone who calls it a ground invasion is sorely mistaken, have found tons and tons of weapons, often in their “original packaging” so to speak.  Rumors that started weeks ago are that nearly all the weapons have Russian writing on them.   That in itself should be no surprise as many Arab armies, especially Syria have Russian arms – but these seem newer.    Whether they came from Iran or directly from Russia, and how old they are, I don’t know to tell.

There are reports in Lebanese Arab language social media and press that the Russians are also giving – selling? – combat drones to Hezbollah and are training them to use them, too.  Up until now, Hezbollah has been using only Iranian drones, we will have to see if that changes. 

In the Dar’aa region of Syrian, opposite the Israeli Golan Heights the Russians have apparently left a key observation post and left it to be manned by Iranian Revolutionary Guard and their proxies.    There is Russian surveillance equipment there and it is a key strategic piece of land.   After doing that, Russia has warned Israel of “catastrophic consequences” in the middle east, if Israel is to invade Syria.  Israel does not seem to have plans to invade Syria, although they bomb it regularly, but Israel did start doing engineering work on the Syrian side of the border, flattening out the area and even digging canals, presumably to slow any Syrian or Iranian incursion.   It could be in reaction to that.

Last but not least, Russia has been allowing Iranian cargo planes to land in Russian airbases in Syria after Israel threatened to destroy Beirut airport if they allowed them to land there.    Israel has been working overtime to prevent the re-arming of Hezbollah by Iran and bringing the weapons to Russian bases brings a serious challenge to Israel.   We have spoken in the past that the main goal of the Russian presence is to rid the middle east of the US but now, with their Axis relationship with Iran, Israel itself may be a target.   It seems that we have gone from Soviet dominance of Egypt and Syria to Kissinger ridding the region of Russian presence to Obama’s “inviting” Russia in to keep Assad in line to Russian dominance and American withdrawal.

The US of course is still in the middle east and will be for the next few years, for sure.  In addition to the large naval presence the Qatari air base and massive US financial presence in the UAE mean that the US can’t just “leave” (although the ex-Afghani government might disagree).  Where does this leave Israel?  Israel cannot afford to risk a direct confrontation with Russia yet it is not out of the question that this can happen – either by mistake or not. 

One thing Israel has going for it is that Russia, too cannot afford a confrontation with Israel as an Israeli tactical victory – say shooting down a Russian fighter or destroying its latest SS-400 anti-aircraft batteries – will embarrass Russia and hurt their arms sales.  But what of drone strikes?  What if Russia launches drones from a Hezbollah base or their own base or what if Russian trainers of Hezbollah are killed? 

What will happen is that the utmost diplomatic skill will be needed in order to, de-escalate.  This would be a real time for de-escalation and no one comes to mind who has the diplomatic skill to do the job.  Tony Blinken?  Amos Hochstein?  Macron?  Kamala Harris?  The US and its main allies in the international scene, the UK and France, have lost the will to use their military to backup their diplomatic heft and therefore have no diplomatic heft.   One wonders if it will fall to Israel and Russia alone to “de-escalate” – if Russia has the will.

This is where China might come in.  China is no friend of Israel but is a friend of its own power and influence.   How much would Xi’s standing be in the world if he were the one who prevented a Russia-Israel War?  What would Xi demand of Israel for this?  Nobel Peace Prize anyone? 

We speak of the lack of military will on the global scene but the diplomatic mediocrity is just as dangerous (but I guess in today’s world you can’t separate the two).    Currently there is no confrontation between Israel and Russia, but the volatility in the middle east means all sides need to be ready for one – accidental or real.   In either case, there will need to be an adult in the room.   If the US doesn’t step forward, China will.

As for Russia and Israel – Netanyahu and Putin had, at one point, a good relationship.  But if you speak to Russians and Ukrainians who know Russia well they will tell you that Russia has been Israel’s main enemy all along.  Confrontation is not imminent but the risks are not small.