Preventing a Sunni Vise

Israel needs a Renewal of Zionism and not Ephemeral “Quiet”

In the last summer and early fall Israel had a string of game changing victories that translated into a new strategic reality in the middle east. But with these victories came other challenges, coming from the north and northeast. Syria was no longer part of the dangerous Shiite crescent but what is replacing it is still not clear. Turkey is slowly becoming the dominant force there as they move aggressively against the Kurds and have started to take control, and possibly annex parts of the Syrian coastal region around Latakia. Is a new Sunni vise now becoming Israel’s biggest threat?

The fall of Assad brought to a head the Sunni-Shiite rivalry and may in fact reignite the pan-Sunni powers against Israel. In pre-Khomeini Iran and pre-Erdogan Turkey these two countries were Israel’s only allies in the Moslem world. Iran was opposed to both the Sunni religious dominance, racially anti-Arab and secular in state institutions. The Iranians considered themselves better than their Arab co-religionists due to their millennia old culture and modern cities. Turkey was then a continuation of Ataturk’s secularization where Islam was pushed to the home and mosque and out of the public square. They did not consider themselves a Sunni power but rather a Western power and bridge to the east.

Just as Israel has benefited strategically from these new events so has Turkey. The question is if Israel will be in a position to thwart the formation of a future “Sunni Vise” or if it will stand back and deal with it “when the time comes”. We spoke earlier about a possible Egypt-Turkey-Syria relationship that could threaten Israel but it could go much further. The “hostage deal” just reached between Israel and Hamas, for example, has produced an explosion of support for that radical Islamist terrorist organization that has been able to withstand 15 months of tactical defeats and remain in power. No matter that some 60% of Gaza has been destroyed, the fact of their still being in power is the picture of victory that they desired.

Celebrations of the deal broke out not only in Gaza and the West Bank but in Syria, Turkey, Jordan and other Sunni countries, too ( not to speak of near-Sunnified Europe). Israel needs to make sure that this hostage deal does not create a steamroller effect that strengthens radical Sunni Islam in the Arab world in the same way that the beeper attack and killing of Nasrallah created the conditions for the fall of the Shiite crescent.

The hostage deal for Israel was an attempt to get the return of its citizens held by savage terrorists as it tried to fight a war under the most strict legal conditions in history. Others have been defeated by a stronger or more determined military but Israel has reached a point of non-victory due to a combination of legal jargon and post-modern ideology. The legal jargon was a favorite of Blinken but the IDF’s own legal team limited Israeli offensive capabilities due to an extreme interpretation of international law that no other Western country would accept. As for ideology, the IDF senior command seem so scared about being labelled occupiers that they put their own troops in harm’s way in order to avoid that label.

For Hamas though, the hostage deal was an opportunity to re-assert control over the (near) entirety of Gaza and to celebrate their “victory” in the Sunni world as justification for October 7. It is interesting to note that the western world probably protested Israeli war policies more than the Sunni-Arab world but that might change as Hamas is seen as the entity that survived Israeli “aggression” even more than Shiite Hezbollah. Hamas sees itself not only as the liberators of Palestine from Israel but as the leaders of an ISIS-like remake of the Sunni world. Ironically, supported, funded and trained by the Shiite power determined to liberate Palestine and Jerusalem and only then to impose Shiite control over other parts of the Sunni world, Hamas seems to be outlasting Iran in their fight against Israel and is poised to be the “example” in the Sunni fight against Israel. Hamas was formed by Egypt’s Moslem Brotherhood and can easily switch sponsors from Iran to Turkey.

What can Israel do in the meanwhile to stave off a new Sunni threat emboldened by the hostage deal? The Gaza threat is diminished but still there and the Turkish threat is on the horizon. Syria is the main battleground now and Israel needs to be aggressive in that “country”. I put country in quotes since it, like most of its neighbors is artificial and the borders need to be redrawn. Israel has already taken control of areas around the Golan Heights including the entirety of Mt. Hermon. As a next move Israel has to answer Druze calls to be annexed to Israel and sponsor a plebiscite in the Druze areas near the Golan and in Jebel Druze. The Druze know they are not strong enough to withstand a major armed conflict on their own Israel is their natural ally as their cousins are loyal fighters in the IDF. Being part of Israel proper, they can serve in the IDF as their current Israeli cousins do. This will also finalize Israel’s control over the Golan Heights as a whole.

With control over the strategic parts of ex-Syria and the inclusion of a civilian population eager to join, Israel will have expanded its territory and control strategic high grounds and water supplies. As a bonus, it will relieve Jordan of a radical Sunni border area, where Israel and their new Druze citizens will be the buffer. This can leave Jordan in the more moderate Sunni camp - even as they pay lip service to Hamas and the Palestinians in general.

Next is the Netanyahu-Trump dream of diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia. This is the dream of both leaders and the reason, in my opinion, why Netanyahu agreed to this hostage deal. Diplomatic relations with the keepers of Mecca and the birthplace of Islam and the Arab world will hold prestige and can be a buffer against a pan-Sunni radical opposition. It can also be a trap if the Saudi’s assume that Israel has more to gain from the relationship than Saudi Arabia does. No matter the circumstances, Saudi Arabia will be under tremendous pressure to castigate Israel each time it does something “wrong”. We can’t expect this relationship to be like the one Israel has with the UAE which is friendly and business related. In the UAE there seems to be a true desire to partner with Israel financially as well as militarily (although that too can end quickly). With the Saudis though, in the meanwhile, relations with Israel are in the hands of one man – Mohammed Bin Salman.

Will Bin Salman be able to withstand a pan-Sunni move against Israel? On the one hand this relationship is an asset to Israel in its fight against a Sunni Anvil, on the other hand it will always be shaky and might force israel into moves it does not want to make. It is worth taking the gamble of course, but Israel can’t let its guard down because of it.

Even before that happens, or maybe it is a necessary prelude to Saudi relations, Israel needs to start a major offensive in the West Bank and crush Hamas and Islamic Jihad attempts to take control of the major cities. This is not an endorsement of the Palestinian Authority who have no love for Israel, but a Hamas victory could give them and their radical Sunni allies the momentum necessary for Islamic victories in Syria and even Jordan. Israel needs to secure the border with Jordan immediately as the flow of arms into the West Bank continues apace and the IDF must go to the source of Hamas power in the West Bank, the Jenin refugee camp, and root it out once and for all. This task cannot be left to the PA – which, even if they succeed, will result in a further radicalization of the PA forces themselves.

Israel needs to change it mode of thought and adopt the Trumpian “spheres of influence” foreign and security policy. This includes the eastern Mediterranean, Gaza, and southern Syria. It needs to declare these goals out loud and insist that any Saudi deal recognize Israel’s right to – not only defend itself, but to take offensive action, including the annexation of territory, if necessary. I would not include the populated parts of the West Bank but I would include the Jordan Valley, down to the city of Jericho.

Israel needs to step up its game and not wallow in the false nostalgia that is Yair Lapid’s call for “quiet” as it will fall into the same trap that got it into October 7 and the predicament they are currently in. The utter absurdity of once again craving “quiet” just 15 months after that quest blew up in Israel’s face is the defeatist talk that will return Israel to its weakest point in its history – October 6, 2023. The quest for “quiet” can only be a quest for stagnation and defeat. It is the Ehud Olmert simplistic philosophy of being “tired of war”. Of course we are tired of war, but that does not excuse an escape from reality.

Israel, and any dynamic country in the world will never have “quiet” because countries and peoples can only grow via disruption. Any country in the middle east that wants to pretend it can get to a point of “quiet” is a country that will stagnate and die. Rather than pine for quiet, Israel needs to be aggressive and assertive. This means a renewal of Zionism, not in the old sense of forming socialist farming communities, but in the push for independence. Rather than trying to push their way into the Davos-Europe crowd of virtue signaling and stagnation, Israel needs to push further in renewing the “can-do” effort that built this country. Copying Europe, as the Yair Lapid’s of the country crave, will just bring Israel to the economic stagnation that Europe has become.

It’s a renewal of Zionism for the new era and not a selfish quest for some ephemeral “quiet” that the country needs and desires. People like Yair Lapid, old before his time, need to step aside so that fresh blood can take over. He is stuck in October 6 and strives for that fantasy filled world that he wants to return to. Ironically, it is his core constituency that strives for a dynamic country – the engineers, scientists and professionals that need movement and not stagnation. He doesn’t understand this because he has never really worked and has never gone to school. He strives for the beach and a cigar – very nice, but not what a country needs as it shapes its future in a dangerous part of the world.

There are many challenges that face Israel – even after the weakening of the Shiite Crescent, and a return to “quiet” means turning pushing these challenges to someone else’s watch. Israel’s leaders could do worse than listening carefully to President Trump’s message to the world yesterday – disrupt and grow with him. Israel needs to move strongly, swiftly and most important confidently to stave off a Sunni vise.