On Belittling Israel

No Victory for the Cowardly

There is nothing that seems to bother certain people more than the success of Israel and therefore, no matter the success in the end there has to be some criticism that belittles what the country has done. The new thing is the alleged disagreement between American and Israeli intelligence assessments regarding Iran. If we have learned one thing about intelligence over the last decades it is that with all the technology there is no substitute for human intelligence – humint, as they say. The Russian invasion in Ukraine and October 7 were both intelligence failures because the United States and Ukraine and Israel all sought to use technology in place of humint on the one hand, and interpret interests and intentions instead of capabilities on the other.

The Hezbollah decimation last summer and now the Iran operation both went back to boots on the ground, dirty hands intelligence gathering combined with technology, advanced and old. Ukraine’s attack on the Russian bombers was the same thing. In Iran Israel clearly has people on the inside in addition to who knows how many Mossad units in the country. They were able to fake a meeting of military heads in order to get them into the same bunker and take them all out. This is more stunning since they did the same thing with Nasrallah and Hezbollah just a few months ago.

Yet, American intelligence has – or at least it has “leaked” that it has a different assessment of Iran’s “intentions”. Let’s examine what this is all about. Big picture, according to news reports (again, journalists have stopped doing journalistic work and report whatever fits the narrative, so this might not have any element of truth in it) American intelligence things that Iran has not yet made a “decision” whether to go nuclear or not. Also, that they are three years out from producing a nuclear weapon – although they admit a “crude” nuclear device could be had in 6 months.

Are the exploding crude ones not dangerous enough to pay attention to?

Israel has taken a worst case scenario assessment according to these reports, which of course makes sense when you are the main target of that worst case. But also, Israel has people on the ground in Iran and has for many years. It is not clear that the US has more than diplomatic and psychological assessments.

But let’s assume that US intelligence is 100% correct. Let’s assume that Iran is three years away from a usable bomb and that no decision has actually been made (which of course makes no sense, but we will leave it at that). Let us say that Israel’s worst case scenario is three years out.

What should be done then? If you live downstream from a dam and that dam has visible cracks in it but the engineers guarantee that it has at least three good years left before it burst – do you wait three years or deal with it now? If it is fixable, do you start now or wait two years and ten months? If it is not fixable, do you start to build an alternative now or wait until you have a month or two left?

The plain fact is that the cracks appeared in 1979 when Khomeini dedicated the country of Iran to the destruction of Israel, the Jews and Western civilization. This is not deniable by the most incautious of intelligence analysts. The plain fact is that Iran has never, no matter who they are negotiating with, agreed to give up their nuclear weapon program. The plain fact is that every US president since George W. Bush has promised that Iran will not get a nuclear weapon. The plain fact is that windows of opportunity in such bold moves as Israel did against Iran shut quickly and mercilessly.

But those on the left and right who can’t bear to see success by Israel can’t admit that in spite of years of talk – the spread of nuclear weapons is a universal bad – even when the proposed victim is Israel and the Jews.

I even read recently that someone wrote that without American help in shooting down Iranian ballistic missiles Israel would be a “smoking ruin”. Fascinating assessment. In the worst nights between 1-2 missiles get through and the US shoots down 25-30% of what are shot. Without American help, worst case scenario 2-3 missiles would get through and not all of them cause damage. “Smoking ruin”? There is nothing like the intense need to belittle Israel’s successes no matter how great they are and how much the rest of the world gains from it.

Israel’s success in Iran is the world’s success. Belittling it may make people feel better about themselves, but it certainly doesn’t add to the truth told about the world. How many lives have been saved in Israel, Saudi Arabia, Europe and the United States now that Israel is on the way to destroying the most fanatical nuclear power in the world besides North Korea. How many lives will be lost due to the lack of action by the United States, China, Russia and other countries in stopping North Korea’s nuclear program when it was just “three years away”?

It is sad to see that the cowardice and ignorance of the global diplomatic corps centered in the United Nations has spread to some of the most intelligent people and industries that the free world has to offer.

I have to say that on the one hand I have been disappointed that President Trump has not joined this war, but on the other hand he at least understands the issue. He has even taken our advice here and called for “unconditional surrender”. I don’t know if the United States under President Trump will join the fight and I don’t know what the right decision is, but I am confident he knows the risks Israel has taken and the price it has and is still paying to rid the world of a dangerous (near) nuclear power.

You can belittle Israel’s successes all you want, but there is no victory for the cowardly and ignorant.