Occuphobia: The Fear of Being Labelled an Occupier

Or Why Israel Holds Back in Lebanon and Gaza

What explains Israel’s military policy, as presented by the IDF General Staff and approved by the Government Security Cabinet and cheered by the press and opposition, to not finish the job in Gaza and Lebanon? There are now cease fires on the northern and southern fronts and intense fighting in the center of the country. It may feel like “wack-a-mole” but it is a carefully thought out policy, years on the making and based on” Occuphobia”.

What is going on in Lebanon? The sixty day cease fire is over although the US has declared it is to be extended to February 18. Hezbollah, seeing Hamas’s success in returning to northern Gaza is trying their best to return to the Shiite villages in the south. The Lebanese Army is not holding up its side of the bargain, either because they are incapable or unwilling. We know that many of the soldiers and officers of the Lebanese Army, US financed and supplied, are in fact Hezbollah sympathizers if not members. The trust that Israel as well as the US and France put in them is based on a typical western fallacy that a country’s armed forces support the country and not factions within it.

Today, for example, in the village of Yaroun, about 2 km’s from the border and a village the IDF spend weeks clearing, the Lebanese Army, in US provided armored personnel carriers, is providing security for a Hezbollah rally. Armed men with Hezbollah flags in their hands are all over the south.

There is now a new President Aoun (this time Joseph) and he is the former commander of the Lebanese Army. However, Hezbollah is still a member of the government. Israel’s major mistake in the cease fire agreement with Lebanon was not demanding that Hezbollah be made to be illegal in Lebanon, thrown out of the parliament and its members rounded up and jailed. Disarming Hezbollah was the pre-October 7 goal - it should never have been the goal after Israel decimated its leadership. Taking Hezbollah out of the official governing of the country and making the organization illegal at least puts them on their back feet and out of the financial system.

Where the US and Israel don’t understand this, wealthy Arabs do. Khalaf Al Habtoor, founder and chairman of the UAE’s Habtoor Group has reportedly pulled all his money out of Lebanon. That this is happening after the cease fire, after the fall of the house of Assad and after finally electing a president means that he has no faith in the country’s ability to free itself from Hezbollah. As negotiations for a new government continue in Lebanon, rumors that the Ministry of Finance will go to Hezbollah, tells us all we need to know. Al-Habtoor has over $1 billion invested in Lebanon and he is pulling all of it out and insists no one in the group will be visiting Lebanon anytime soon.

Where does this leave Israel? The government and the IDF insisted on not taking the mountain ridges overlooking Israel but instead to concentrate only on the villages close to the border, meaning that at no point was israel in a position even to move Hezbollah north of the Litani by force. The expectation that the Lebanese Army would do the job for them will have the same result as the expectation that the Palestinian Authority will take care of terror emanating from the West Bank. In neither case is there a desire let alone the ability to do the job that Israel needs to do. The cease fire agreement has forced Israeli soldiers into defensive positions as they use tanks and infantry to scare away “civilians” looking to enter their villages. Since Israel refused to occupy land more than a few km’s north of the border there was very little negotiating power and very little to “give up”. Had Israel controlled at least the mountains overlooking Israel – let alone all of the land until the Litani – there would have been more to “give” and be able to do it piecemeal in exchange for actual assets. But occuphobia prevented this from happening.

In Gaza, occuphobia has meant that more was given to Hamas than was necessary in any hostage deal. Besides the fact that occupying all of Gaza would have meant that the hostages would have been freed under immense military pressure, even retaining control of just northern Gaza and Khan Yunis and Rafah would have prevented Hamas from moving hostages around as well as re-arming and regrouping in those areas. The result is that what Hamas wanted most – the return of 1.5 million Gazans to northern Gaza - was given to them before even the first stage of the deal was reached. While the entire world looks for a “good Jewish lawyer” to negotiate for them, Israel sends two spies and a general who don’t understand what any first year lawyer understands – figure out what the other side wants most and don’t give it to them until you have received what you want.

While I don’t like to add yet another “phobia” to the English language, Occuphobia is actually dangerous to those who hold it and dangerous to those whose lives depend on those who hold it. The cure is a change in leadership.