Notes For President Trump’s Meetings
Israel, Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia are Front and Center
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is now in the US ready for today’s meeting with President Trump. Jordan’s King Abdullah is to follow Netanyahu and Egypt’s Al-Sisi is to follow Abdullah as President Trump tries to force his will upon the willing and unwilling alike. The left, right and center in Israel are all excited about a prospective Saudi deal and how it will or will not create a Palestinian state.
Before we pop people’s bubbles it is time for all sides to see what needs to be done and what can be done. The first is to understand that there will not be peace in the middle east anytime soon and he who continues this Sisyphean project might get a falsely deserved Nobel Peace Prize but will be looked upon as failures, nonetheless. Do not to look for that all encompassing solution to the region’s problems as are too many variables in the middle east to reduce them all to one or two that will solve all the others. Neither the existence of Israel nor the lack of a Palestinian state effect what is happening in Libya or in Iraq. The civil war in Yemen, in spite of the Houthi’s bluster and missiles has been going on for about 70 years. The Iranian Islamic state is happy to have at the center of its universe the destruction of Israel and the Jews, but neither Israel nor the Jewish people outside of Israel caused the revolution in the first place, nor will the disappearance of the Jews make it succeed. Egypt is a basket case with a powerful army and Lebanon is, well Lebanon. In spite Beirut’s reputation as “Paris of the middle east” Lebanon is a mountainous backwards country that has been at war with itself since its founding.
Back in the 1950’s and early 1960’s it was all about water rights and a pan-Arab land bridge and today it is Gaza or the West Bank or some other issue. But the opposite end of the spectrum is also another false messiah – and that is the Israel-Saudi Arabia relationship. No one is doubting the strategic importance of an Israeli-Saudi deal, much as no one is doubting the apparent success of the Israel-UAE deal. But these will never end the war of Arabs and Israel as a proxy for the war of Islam vs. the Jews. There will always be a well funded Islamic group who will try to win over adherents and unite the Moslem world with a jihad against Israel and the West – against Judaism and Christianity. I am not saying that Islam cannot live peacefully as one religion amongst many in in the world or even in their region, they can and they have. So long as there is strength on the other side. However, the combination of Islamic fanaticism with readily available money and cheap technology means that the war will continue.
People discount the ready money via China, global organized crime, Russia, Qatar and others that are happy to keep western law enforcement on their heals and western militaries busy so they can all forward their own interests – as they see them. People discount the negative in incredible advances that the microchip has brought – making it affordable for any gang – in LA, NY, Jenin, Gaza or Mexico - to sow terror in their “neighborhood”.
So, let’s take a step back and first see what will be necessary to get done before even thinking of making the middle east a peaceful region. The goals should not be peace or even Israel’s new favorite – “quiet”. The goal ought to be giving Israel enough strength and leeway to pre-empt conditions that will cause an October 7 and any other major confrontation with terrorist organizations.
The first issue needs to be a dismantling of the refugee camps in the West Bank and Gaza. For over 75 years the refugees and their descendants have had al of their medical care, education and social welfare (as they define it) paid for by the UN – meaning mostly the United States. These “refugee camps” are not temporary camps with tents and pre-fab installations to house and feed refugees until they find permanent place to live – as ALL refugee camps besides these, have been at least since the end of WWII – these “refugee camps” are cities in every sense of the word with the exception being that they don’t have to pay taxes and get all normal governmental services for free. The education paid for by the UN/US and, I might add by Israel, is fanatically anti-semitic and anti-western.
President Trump is correct to want to encourage emigration from Gaza for political, strategic as well as moral reasons. But that won’t solve the problem if the UN and the US continue to recognize a “refugee problem”. Let us not forget that there are also refugee camps in Jordan, Syria and Lebanon and that there are Palestinians living and working in the Gulf states and, with the exception of Jordan – these people are not citizens of their resident states but are also considered refugees. That has to end and it will end only with the closing down of UNRWA and the “camps” they run. If they become equal citizens of Syria, Lebanon, Qatar, UAE or Egypt is not a problem for Israel or the US to solve. This is a problem created by the Arab League and they should solve it themselves.
No one wants fanatical terrorists in their countries- let alone those that were not born there, but they created the situation – with encouragement and funding from the west – and they need to solve it. How they do it is of no concern to Israel or the US. So, as President Trump meets with Netanyahu and then Abdullah and Al-Sisi, this has to be the first item on the list. This also needs to be related to Saudi Prince Bin-Salman, the Saudi leader and modernizer.
After a policy of ending the refugee status of millions of Palestinians by ending UNRWA and finding refuge for those Gazans that want to leave permanently, a plan must be agreed upon to finally destroy Hamas in Gaza, the West Bank, Jordan and Lebanon. The first address here is Turkey and President Trump needs to use his carrot and large stick magic on that revanchist country. Hamas must be made to be international outlaws much as Pablo Escobar was. All Hamas members, wherever they are, need to be arrested and jailed. That includes its “civilian” members as well as its military ones. Membership in Hamas needs to be deemed a crime. After “convincing” Turkey and others a military plan must be made for Israel to go into Gaza and the West Bank and destroy Hamas – as it ought to have done by now. This can happen now, or Israel can agree to wait until after all the hostages have been returned – giving a deadline where total destruction of Gaza and the killing of all Hamas members will be the official war aim agreed upon by Israel and the United States. That means that the current IDF legal chief needs to be fired since she has stated that we can’t kill Hamas members that are not official members of the military wing – for example those who kidnapped the Bibas family (I kid you not).
The same policy needs to be done in the West Bank where an ultimatum by Israel, backed publicly by the United States (and preferably the Arab League, too) has to be given to Hamas to surrender or face annihilation. The west and the Israeli government, led by Netanyahu, have for too long treated Hamas as a legitimate group that can be “dealt” with. That has to end and President Trump can lead that effort.
The same needs to be done to Hezbollah. They are worse than Hamas in that they have a global crime and terror network including drug and human trafficking. It is certain that Hezbollah has much to do with the illicit drug trade into the United States. They need to be declared illegal in Lebanon and forced out of the government and into the jails. Membership itself in Hezbollah needs to be made a crime and the US and France can help in purging the Lebanese Army of Hezbollah members and supporters by arresting and jailing them. The same needs to be done to Hezbollah parliament members in Lebanon. Hezbollah then needs to be destroyed completely. Each Shiite village south of the Litani has to be certified “Hezbollah free” by a joint group of Israel and Lebanon with US and Saudi help. Until Hezbollah ceases to exist in Lebanon, Israel needs to have a military presence there. There must be a global hunt to shut down the Hezbollah crime and terror syndicate.
As we are in the north, Israel needs to declare the Druze in southern Syria a “protected people” and a referendum needs to be organized to see if they want to become Israeli citizens or remain Syrian. If the former, Israel needs to annex Jebel Druze as well as areas surrounding the Israeli Golan. Those non-Druze Syrians should be given money to leave and rebuild their lives elsewhere in Syria and the Arab League ought to fund that, too. Syria has never been a real country and is certainly not one now. As long as Turkey is taking over the north of the country, Syria will never revert to what the French made it – nor should it.
When there is agreement on the above, most importantly ending the Palestinian refugee “problem” by declaring it over and de-funding it and destroying Hamas (and Islamic Jihad as long as we are at it) then there can be a Saudi-Israel peace treaty that won’t be a hostage to Palestinian terror, crime and fanaticism.
Iran is obviously the elephant in the room. This is one area where the current administration is in agreement with Israel and Saudi Arabia – either the Iranian regime needs to be overthrown or their nuclear facilities need to be destroyed -in toto. Doing the latter might lead to the former. No one in the Arab world will oppose this – only Russia and China might. Although Iran is the weakest link in the Axis, undoing them will weaken the strategic positions of both of those enemies of freedom.
Finally – a message to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Minister Ron Dermer – give back the $4 billion in aid that Israel receives from the US!!!
Pay for what you get. Israel is an economic success story and can pay its way. It may need loans here and there and other payment options, but this is the time to surprise President Trump with a $4 billion check and a thank you to the American people for all these years of financial support. If you want to pre-empt and get on President Trump’s good side – this is the way to do it!
President Trump’s initiative in the middle east can lead to a better and more secure region but it will not end the state of war. Once we understand that and we prepare the ground as we described above, we can be in a position where all enemies can be defeated.
And one message to President Trump, Steve Witkoff, Marco Rubio and the rest of the President’s team. Some further reading:
Every one of your recommendations hits the mark.
About UNRWA, I agree with you 100 thousand percent.
I'm back to watching PBS. I happened to catch *two* appearances by UNRWA reps and their Israeli counterparts, for a dialogue/polite debate, one months ago and one recently.
I cannot stress hard enough what limp noodles the Israeli spokemen were (can't remember their names).
It was cringe-inducing.
Abba Ebans are rare - but can't Israel get representatives who at least have some SPINE??